PerturbPFN: Probing the Limits of Synthetic Priors in Drug Perturbation Modelling

Predicting transcriptomic responses to small-molecule perturbations across cell lines is central to drug discovery, but exhaustive profiling of drug-cell combinations is infeasible. We frame molecular perturbation prediction as retrieve-and-aggregate: approximate an unmeasured drug's response in a cell line by aggregating measured responses of a small set of biologically related compounds. We propose LLM-Guided Retrieval (LGR), where a large language model (LLM) ranks candidate neighbor drugs (restricted to those profiled in the target cell line); after which a fixed mean aggregator combines their observed expression deltas to form the prediction. We evaluate on the Tahoe-100M single-cell perturbation atlas under unseen-drug, unseen-cell-line, and open-world regimes. LGR consistently improves over drug mean, ChemCPA, and chemistry-based kNN baselines, with the strongest gains for unseen cell-line generalization, where it achieves higher correlation and lower error than mean baselines. Across settings, LGR improves directional (sign) accuracy of gene regulation, indicating better recovery of biologically meaningful perturbation effects even when magnitude-based metrics are similar. These results suggest that retrieval quality, rather than predictor complexity, is a key driver of zero-shot molecular perturbation prediction, and that LLMs can provide a useful biological prior when used as constrained retrieval modules.

Virtual-cell and perturbation models are increasingly used to predict cellular responses for biomedical discovery, but chemical and genetic perturbations are not automatically interchangeable. Existing evaluations often study chemical response prediction or genetic perturbation prediction separately, leaving target-matched chemical-to-genetic translation under-tested. We introduce Chem2Gen-Bench, a benchmark comprising 260,084 chemical and 1,099,045 genetic perturbation profiles organized into cell-target contexts, and evaluate pairwise alignment, retrieval, protocol covariate associations, feature spaces, and foundation-model embeddings. Across matched contexts, translation fidelity is measurable but heterogeneous; background adjustment increases the association between pairwise similarity and retrieval success, while paired tests show lower mean retrieval success after adjustment under the evaluated settings. In a target-matched K562 audit, the evaluated foundation-model embeddings did not consistently improve over gene-delta baselines. Chem2Gen-Bench provides an auditable framework for testing when chemical and genetic perturbations align around shared targets and when representation gains are supported by matched perturbation evidence.

Virtual cell modeling predicts molecular state changes under genetic perturbations in silico, which is essential for biological mechanism studies. However, existing approaches suffer from unconstrained reasoning, uninterpretable predictions, and retrieval signals that are weakly aligned with regulatory topology. To address these limitations, we propose AROMA, an Augmented Reasoning Over a Multimodal Architecture for virtual cell genetic perturbation modeling. AROMA integrates textual evidence, graph-topology information, and protein sequence features to model perturbation-target dependencies, and is trained with a two-stage optimization strategy to yield predictions that are both accurate and interpretable. We also construct two knowledge graphs and a perturbation reasoning dataset, PerturbReason, containing more than 498k samples, as reusable resources for the virtual cell domain. Experiments show that AROMA outperforms existing methods across multiple cell lines, and remains robust under zero-shot evaluation on an unseen cell line, as well as in knowledge-sparse, long-tail scenarios. Overall, AROMA demonstrates that combining knowledge-driven multimodal modeling with evidence retrieval provides a promising pathway toward more reliable and interpretable virtual cell perturbation prediction. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/blazerye/AROMA. Code is available at https://github.com/blazerye/AROMA.