TWICE: Two-Clock, Two-Window Learning for Long-Horizon Conversion Prediction in Online Advertising

Delayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click behaviors evolve over the observation period. To overcome this limitation, we formalize this evolution as feedback trajectory and propose TRACE. Instead of forcing hard labels on unrevealed samples, our method evaluates how well the accumulated feedback status aligns with conversion versus non-conversion, dynamically refining posteriors without waiting for final outcomes. To counteract early-stage trajectory sparsity, we further design a reliability-gated retrospective completer that leverages full-lifecycle data to provide adaptive posterior guidance for unrevealed samples. Extensive experiments validate TRACE's superiority over state-of-the-art baselines and confirm the retrospective completion module as a model-agnostic enhancer for existing systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LunaZhangxy/TRACE.

Offsite conversion rate (OCVR) prediction is an important ranking problem in computational recommendation systems. This task presents a modeling challenge: click signals are abundant and exhibit short temporal horizons, whereas conversion signals are inherently sparse, long-delayed, and frequently unattributed. Despite these statistical disparities, both signal types must inform models that operate within strict serving-latency constraints. Prior pre-training approaches address this heterogeneity with a single, undifferentiated encoder applied uniformly across both data streams. We propose DUET (Dual User Embedding Transformers), a framework that explicitly partitions user behavioral data into two domain-coherent streams -- clicks and conversions -- and pre-trains dedicated transformer encoders with architectures tailored to each stream's statistical characteristics: multi-layer self-attention for the dense click stream and interleaved cross- and self-attention for the sparse conversion stream. The resulting complementary embeddings are jointly consumed by a downstream ranker without exceeding serving-latency budgets. Evaluation demonstrates up to 0.38% normalized entropy (NE) reduction relative to the strongest baseline, and A/B test shows consistent improvements in OCVR prediction accuracy.

Not all clicks are equal. Industrial ads ranking decouples conversion probability into click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR), yet treats every click as the same event. In reality, users provide a free, self-generated signal of intent through their physical UI interactions. Different click types on the same ad exhibit a 4-fold difference in actual conversion rates. By conflating these signals, the standard CVR model under-predicts high-intent clicks and over-predicts low-intent ones, which is a bias masked by near-perfect aggregate calibration. We propose MARCO (Multi-intent Ads Ranking Composition Optimization), a framework that resolves this bias by decomposing each click by intent. Using the logged click type as a free behavioral label, MARCO trains per-intent CVR heads on homogeneous populations, and at serving time composes their per-intent CVR estimates under a predicted distribution over intents. Theoretically, we prove that decomposition never raises population risk, give the exact headroom under squared loss and non-negativity under the deployed loss, and show through a routing-efficiency dial how much of it reaches serving. Because the population-optimal score is unchanged, any gain is a finite-capacity estimation and calibration effect that we validated both offline and online. For deployment at scale, we further cast multi-impression, multi-click attribution as credit assignment with a bias-variance tradeoff analogous to RL return estimation, showing last-impression, first-click attribution is the low-bias, low-variance, deterministic choice under production constraints, and derive three consistency conditions enforced end-to-end at scale. Deployed at binary intent granularity, MARCO corrects per-intent calibration to approximately 100%, lifts conversions per click by +2.80%, and drives +0.98% cumulative improvement in topline metrics.