Authors: Paula Cordero Encinar, Taylan Cemgil, Arnaud Doucet, Virginia Aglietti, Silvia Chiappa
Organizations: Imperial College London (work conducted while at Google DeepMind) · Google DeepMind
Abstract
Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive. This drives the need for methods that can estimate full benchmark performance by evaluating models on only a subset of items, known as a coreset. Current literature mostly requires the practitioner to input a coreset size. However, when reliable performance estimation takes priority over efficiency, an evaluation method should also be capable of automatically determining a coreset size that reflects this priority. We introduce BayesAME, a sequential Bayesian framework specifically targeting automatic determination of the coreset size. BayesAME models performance as a random variable by defining a latent ability for each group of items sharing the same historical model performances, with a joint prior distribution encoding the belief that the target model behaves similarly to these historical models. The posterior distribution over these abilities is used to derive performance estimators, quantify performance uncertainty, and select items to add to the coreset via an information-gain criterion. The coreset is iteratively augmented until the performance estimate fluctuation and the performance uncertainty fall below their respective user-defined thresholds. We propose a multi-target extension that captures performance correlations across multiple target models to further reduce the coreset size. Through extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, we demonstrate that BayesAME consistently outperforms sequential adaptations of existing methods. Crucially, our comprehensive analysis addresses recent skepticism in the literature, establishing that non-random coreset selection is advantageous over random selection. Finally, we highlight that leveraging continuous response log-likelihoods over traditional binary scores significantly enhances estimation accuracy.
The prohibitive cost of evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates efficient alternatives to full-scale benchmarking. Prevalent approaches address this by identifying a small coreset of items to approximate full-benchmark performance. However, existing methods must estimate a reliable item profile from response patterns across many source models, which becomes statistically unstable when the source pool is small. This dependency is particularly limiting for newly released benchmarks with minimal historical evaluation data. We argue that discrete correctness labels are a lossy view of the model's decision process and fail to capture information encoded in hidden states. To address this, we introduce RepCore, which aligns heterogeneous hidden states into a unified latent space to construct representative coresets. Using these subsets for performance extrapolation, RepCore achieves precise estimation accuracy with as few as ten source models. Experiments on five benchmarks and over 200 models show consistent gains over output-based baselines in ranking correlation and estimation accuracy. Spectral analysis further indicates that the aligned representations contain separable components reflecting broad response tendencies and task-specific reasoning patterns.
The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.
We study LLM benchmark coreset selection: selecting a small subset of prompts over multiple benchmarks whose induced model scores and rankings approximate those obtained from the full benchmark suite. In evaluation-unsupervised benchmark coreset selection (our approach), the selection algorithm uses no model evaluation outcomes, and operates on a fine granularity by producing subsets of prompts over multiple benchmarks rather than producing a sub-collection of entire benchmarks. We use submodular subset selection, and we develop and evaluate many different submodular functions for this purpose, including determinantal point process (DPP) based approaches, submodular mutual information functions, and facility location-based functions. On a new large-scale suite of 35 heterogeneous benchmarks spanning five different capability categories, 18 frontier LLMs, and over 61K prompts, we find that the facility location (FL) function operating exclusively on inexpensive semantic prompt embeddings preserves LLM scores better than twelve separate score-based and diversity-based baselines, across a range of coreset budgets. Moreover, we show our proposed objective is not limited to the evaluation-unsupervised regime: in the setting where only a handful of whole benchmarks must be selected and a large amount of model scores are available, the same objective matches or outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on the MMLU and MTEB leaderboards, while being substantially cheaper to compute. Together, our results suggest that submodularity, in general, is a strong and reliable tool for benchmark compression.