Reliable deployment of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) requires deciding whether a confident visual answer should be trusted, reviewed, or routed to a stronger system. Confidence scores capture candidate margins, but not where the estimated signed visual readouts associated with those margins come from or how they are distributed. We study inference-time risk detection for closed visual answers using the same white-box prefill path that produces the answer. Witness Evidence Portfolios (WEP) first estimates, layer by layer, which visual contributions support or contradict the predicted candidate. It summarizes these contributions through two interpretable route families: question-related evidence provenance and signed evidence concentration. Nested grouped validation chooses the more reliable family and a sparse top-k route portfolio, which is fused with candidate confidence. WEP needs no image perturbation, decoding change, backward pass, or external verifier. Across three MLLMs and four binary-answer benchmarks, WEP improves mean error AP by 0.134. All 12 model--dataset gains are positive, and image-cluster bootstrap intervals are strictly positive on 10 pairs. WEP targets white-box closed-answer systems and uses a labeled calibration slice.
When a multimodal large language model answers a visual reasoning question correctly, is the prediction actually supported by the task-critical visual evidence? Correct answers can coexist with flawed reasoning, making accuracy alone an incomplete test of grounding. We introduce VisualFLIP, a paired benchmark with 1,374 images arranged as same-question perturbation pairs across cardinality, attribute, spatial, and logic tasks. Each pair keeps the question fixed but minimally changes the evidence so the gold answer deterministically flips. We evaluate 24 MLLMs with pair accuracy, which requires solving both sides of a pair, and Collapse Rate (CR), which measures how often a model that solves at least one side repeats the same non-empty answer for both images. Together, these metrics show that paired correctness and evidence dependence are related but distinct: capable models can still fail to update after task-critical visual changes, and collapse becomes more severe for some models when the edited image follows an earlier answer in a sequential setting. Further details are available on our project page: https://didizhu-judy.github.io/VisualFLIP/
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) fail at fine-grained visual questions less because they cannot reason than because they never see the evidence: high-resolution images are downsampled before encoding, so the model answers from linguistic priors. The standard remedies are expensive: annotated answers (SFT), hand-engineered verifiers (RLVR), or a large external teacher (on-policy distillation). We ask whether the visual evidence itself can supply the signal for free. We formalize the contrastive evidence gap, the per-token log-likelihood ratio that a model assigns to its own output when conditioned on a question-relevant region versus an irrelevant one, and study it across Qwen2.5-VL-7B, Qwen3-VL-8B, and Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B on V*Bench. Our main positive result is training-free: selecting the candidate crop under which the model's answer distribution is most peaked, using a single-view, label-free criterion, discovers the answer-bearing region with no bounding boxes, training, or labels. It localizes the target 4.4 to 5.1 times better than chance and raises fine-grained accuracy from 70 percent to 85 percent at inference. We further show that the gap is complementary to the model's own confidence. Combining them predicts correctness better than either alone, with AUC up to 0.99, and flags confidently wrong answers, with AUC ranging from 0.97 to 1.00 within the high-confidence subset. All effects concentrate on perception-bottleneck questions and vanish on a global-context control. Finally, we report an honest negative result: converting the same signal into a training method, gated self-distillation (SEG-Distill), does not outperform the base model at pilot scale across three gate designs, while more aggressive gating degrades accuracy. The signal is real, but converting it into training gains remains an open problem.
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in vision-language understanding and natural-language response generation. However, these systems can still produce overconfident predictions and hallucination-like outputs, particularly when the visual evidence is weak, ambiguous, or semantically inconsistent. Most existing approaches focus on improving multimodal representation alignment or retrieval-augmented generation, while providing limited mechanisms to quantify instance-level prediction reliability or identify incorrect visual outputs. This work proposes a retrieval-augmented reliability-aware inference framework for trustworthy multimodal visual understanding. The proposed framework constructs an external visual evidence database using pretrained visual embeddings and nearest-neighbor retrieval over normalized feature representations. Retrieved evidence is used to estimate prediction trustworthiness through multiple reliability indicators, including similarity strength, class-support agreement, evidence margin, entropy-based uncertainty, and an aggregate reliability score. Based on these signals, a decision gate determines whether the system should accept the prediction, answer with caution, or abstain/fallback when evidence is insufficient. A multimodal response-generation layer then produces a final user-facing response conditioned on the reliability decision. Experiments on ImageNet-100 demonstrate that the proposed reliability-aware framework improves accepted prediction accuracy from 85.84% to 88.88% at 89.04% coverage. The hallucination-like accepted wrong-answer rate is reduced from 14.16% to 11.12%. These results show that integrating retrieval evidence, reliability estimation, and selective decision gating can improve calibration and reduce overconfident visual errors without retraining large multimodal models.