Organizations: School of ASEE, Beihang University, Beijing, China · School of BME, Beihang University, Beijing, China · CAIR and CECS, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam
Abstract
Financial sentiment analysis has become a standard component in news-driven stock prediction, yet it reduces rich, multi-dimensional news articles to a single polarity score. We hypothesize that financial news encodes multiple orthogonal information dimensions---event type, impact scope, temporal horizon, and semantic confidence---that sentiment alone cannot capture, and that these dimensions carry independent predictive value. To test this hypothesis, we propose a structured information extraction framework that leverages LLaMA-3.1-70B to extract six semantic dimensions from financial news. Through large-scale experiments on 41,618 news--stock pairs from the FNSPID dataset, we find that (i) FinBERT sentiment features exhibit strong predictive power under nonlinear models (F1=0.576) but substantially weaker performance under linear models (F1=0.230), revealing a highly nonlinear sentiment--return relationship; (ii) LLM-extracted structured features, while individually weaker, capture information orthogonal to sentiment, as evidenced by a 53.5% systematic disagreement rate between the two approaches; and (iii) combining both signal sources yields F1=0.600, significantly outperforming either alone (p<0.0001), with consistent improvements across all seven event types. Ablation experiments confirm that non-sentiment structural dimensions (event type, impact subject, time horizon, confidence) independently contribute ΔF1=+0.019 beyond FinBERT alone. Feature importance analysis reveals balanced contributions from all six extracted dimensions (14--21%), demonstrating that compressing news into a single sentiment score incurs substantial information loss. Our results suggest that the sentiment--semantics decoupling in financial text is systematic and exploitable, opening a new direction for multi-dimensional financial NLP.
Can financial news reliably predict short-term stock movements? Despite advances in large language models, this question remains unresolved. We revisit this problem using a zero-shot natural language processing framework, investigating whether models can extract actionable signals from financial news without domain-specific training. We design a structured pipeline that combines zero-shot natural language inference with temporal aggregation, explicitly modelling recency and event-dependent impact horizons when integrating information across articles. To address the need for transparency in high-stakes settings, we introduce a multi-layered explainability framework that links predictions to token-level, article-level, and aggregate evidence, and produces grounded natural language rationales. Across multiple models and prediction horizons, we find that zero-shot approaches consistently fail to outperform simple baselines, with particularly weak performance on negative movements, suggesting deeper structural limitations in mapping news sentiment to short-term price dynamics. However, explainability signals reliably distinguish between trustworthy and unreliable predictions, offering practical value even when accuracy is limited. These findings highlight the limits of zero-shot financial NLP and motivate a shift toward decision-support systems that prioritise transparency and uncertainty awareness. Code: https://github.com/alimert05/zero-shot-stock-xai
Traditional multi-modal financial forecasting often relies on scalar sentiment scores, which fail to capture the nuances of financial news. To address this information loss, this paper explores high-dimensional representation learning by replacing discrete polarity ratings with dense FinBERT embeddings within a Transformer-based forecasting architecture. We benchmarked various embedding strategies on the FNSPID dataset, including raw embeddings, attention-weighted aggregation, and a custom Siamese network. While the attention-based mechanism struggled with the low signal-to-noise ratio typical of financial data, the integration of Siamese-optimized embeddings outperformed both the scalar baseline and raw embedding approaches, demonstrating that preserving high-dimensional narrative context yields improved predictive accuracy for short-term stock price movements.
Financial sentiment analysis converts unstructured financial news into quantitative signals that can support market analysis and decision-making. Existing work on resource-efficient financial NLP has largely focused on compressing or adapting pretrained language models, with less attention to combining contextual representations with lightweight rule-derived features. This study develops Rule-Aware FinBERT (RA-FinBERT), a parameter-efficient framework that integrates low-rank adaptation (LoRA) with three continuous VADER-derived sentiment proportions (positive, negative, and neutral) and a source-level metadata feature. The standardized four-dimensional feature vector is directly concatenated with the 768-dimensional final-layer FinBERT [CLS] representation and passed through a lightweight classification head. This design introduces only 1,024 additional trainable weights relative to a structurally matched text-only FinBERT model. RA-FinBERT was evaluated against text-only FinBERT and a lightweight DistilBERT baseline for three-class sentiment classification of financial-news titles and descriptions. On the held-out test set, RA-FinBERT achieved 69.89% accuracy and a macro F1 score of 0.634, compared with 63.44% and 0.526 for text-only FinBERT. Neutral-class recall increased from 18.18% to 45.45%. The framework supports both CPU and GPU execution, offering a lightweight and practical approach to financial sentiment classification under constrained computational resources. These findings indicate that rule-derived sentiment information and source metadata can provide complementary signals to contextual FinBERT representations and improve performance with minimal additional model complexity.