ORCA-bench: How Ready Are Language Model Agents for Oncall?

Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. However, existing datasets suffer from a fundamental gap: they label only the root cause, not the propagation path connecting it to the observed symptom, which largely simplifies the task to naive pattern matching. To support rigorous evaluation, we introduce PAVE, a step-wise labeling protocol that leverages known interventions from fault injection to reconstruct causal propagation paths. The mechanism is forward verification: reasoning from cause to effect rather than inferring backward from symptoms. Applying PAVE yields OpenRCA 2.0 (500 instances), the first cross-system RCA benchmark with step-wise causal annotations for LLM agents. Across 11 frontier LLMs, recovering the exact root-cause set succeeds in only 20.7% of cases on average. To locate where this difficulty lies, we relax the criterion and find what we call the ungrounded diagnosis: agents identify at least one correct root-cause service in 76.0% of cases, but ground that service in a verified causal propagation path to the observed symptom in only 61.5%. Outcome-only evaluation hides this failure mode; step-wise causal ground truth is the missing piece for trustworthy LLM-based RCA agents.

Developers increasingly delegate real maintenance work to product-grade coding agents, and many state tasks in their native language, in the style of a customer request rather than a curated English issue. Existing repository-level agentic benchmarks do not measure this setting: their task statements are English by design. We introduce RuBench 1.0, a benchmark of 25 tasks mined from recent fix commits in five live open-source repositories (aiohttp, aiogram, Laravel, NestJS, Fastify; Python, PHP, TypeScript, JavaScript), where each task is specified natively in Russian -- written from scratch in the style of an actual customer request, not translated -- and judged by the upstream maintainer's regression tests, which we withhold from release. All 25 fix commits postdate the training-data cutoffs of every evaluated model, giving a contamination argument that holds task-by-task. We evaluate deployed product configurations (CLI agent + model + reasoning effort) -- Claude Code with Opus 4.8, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, and Codex CLI with GPT-5.5 -- with three independent runs each, reporting pass@1 with task-level confidence intervals, paired comparisons, dollar cost, and token usage. The best configuration resolves 78.7% of tasks; at N=25 only the gaps to the weakest model are statistically resolvable, which we state explicitly. Auditing full trajectories of a fifth, hors-concours configuration (Claude Code + Fable 5, July 2, 2026 release), we caught the product silently substituting the model: on 5 of 25 tasks (20%) an official safeguard fallback re-routed routine HTTP-protocol fixes to Opus 4.8 -- direct, reproducible evidence that the deployed product, not the model, is the unit actually measured. We release task statements, metadata, full agent trajectories, and diffs; grading oracles are withheld, with a SHA-256 manifest committed at publication time.

Cloud-hosted large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for root cause analysis (RCA) in AIOps pipelines, but they introduce data privacy risk, network latency, and per-query cost that scale poorly with production log volumes. We present TriCalRAG, a benchmark evaluating open-weight LLMs served locally via vLLM on a single high-memory workstation GPU (NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000, 96GB) against a classical LSTM-based log anomaly detector (DeepLog), across four real, publicly available log datasets (BGL, HDFS, Thunderbird, OpenStack). We evaluate two open-weight models (Qwen2.5-14B, Mistral-Small) under three prompting strategies: zero-shot, few-shot, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) over a labeled incident history, reporting accuracy, precision/recall, and F1 with bootstrap 95% confidence intervals across 3 random seeds, alongside throughput and VRAM footprint. Our results show that RAG not only improves mean F1 by 0.10-0.27 over zero-shot prompting but, more importantly, substantially stabilizes model calibration: zero-shot prompting drives both models toward near-degenerate behavior (predicting "anomaly" on up to 100% of incidents on some datasets), while RAG keeps predicted-positive rates close to the true class balance in the majority of configurations. Mistral-Small achieves higher macro-averaged F1 than Qwen2.5-14B (0.644 vs. 0.560) but exhibits calibration failures in more configurations (7 vs. 5 of 12), while running at roughly half the throughput - indicating the better model choice depends on whether a deployment prioritizes peak accuracy or predictable behavior across prompting conditions. Ablations show batching scales throughput 41 times on a single card and that 4-bit quantization reduces latency 20% with no measurable accuracy loss. We release our benchmark harness, dataset splits, and evaluation code to support reproducible on-premise AIOps research.