UpliftBench: Revealing Outcome-Regime and Objective Mismatch in Uplift Evaluation

Organizations decide whom to treat under a budget and want to know what a targeting rule would have earned before deploying it. Off-policy evaluation promises this from logged data, but the deployable rule is a deterministic top-k policy: it removes all averaging over actions, so weak overlap hits the estimate directly. We benchmark six estimators across five datasets and two known-effect sweeps, and validate the mechanisms against a non-simulated paired reference. First, weak overlap is governed by logger-target action alignment, not by logging sharpness alone: what governs support is the logger's probability of the target's actions. Sharpening a logger built from the target's own score barely moves overlap over the tested range; action-level disagreement collapses it. Effective sample size ranks this risk across logging environments, but is weak at ranking candidates within the single log a practitioner holds, and its cut point does not transfer. Second, the optimizer's curse is not fixed by cross-fitting the outcome nuisance. When the rule is fit on the data used to evaluate it, cross-fitting the nuisance alone leaves the reuse bias in place and makes it worse. Honest policy-level splitting avoids the reuse by targeting the learning procedure's value -- a change of estimand, not a de-biasing of the full-sample policy. Third, propensity-estimation error is the largest degradation we measure: an out-of-fold estimate hurts IPS more than any other stress we apply, leaves doubly-robust estimation almost unchanged, and can invert the overlap diagnostic itself. Logging is synthesized and propensities floored at 0.02, so every failure occurs with bounded weights; the floor also reduces the two tuned hybrids to their untuned parents, leaving four practically distinct estimators, and all exact-value surfaces are synthetic or semi-synthetic. We release the benchmark; public data only.

Evidence that evaluation material entered training does not reveal how much it affected evaluation. This distinction leaves a contaminated benchmark score difficult to interpret: provenance can establish contact, but only a counterfactual can quantify the performance attributable to that contact. We present LeakScale, an interventional framework for estimating this missing quantity. LeakScale creates fresh executable tasks that require private, family-specific information absent from and non-derivable from the public task, controls access to that information, and estimates the resulting control-adjusted change in executable accuracy. Across 2,048 unique families, two model families, two executable domains, and 262,144 generations, exposure improves accuracy in every model-by-domain combination, with gains ranging from +7.17 to +27.31 percentage points. These findings separate two empirical questions that are often conflated: whether benchmark contact occurred and how strongly a reported score depends on it. LeakScale makes the latter directly measurable.

Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations. CHAUN employs shared feature embeddings and cross-head attention mechanisms to dynamically integrate treatment-specific and control-specific representations, enhancing inter-group correlation modeling. Theoretically, we prove that access to the true propensity scores ensures ITE identifiability even with unobserved confounders. For practical scenarios lacking true propensity scores, RA-IPS adversarially optimizes propensity weights within constrained uncertainty sets to mitigate bias from unobserved variables. Experiments on public datasets (CRITEO-UPLIFT, LAZADA) and a production e-commerce dataset demonstrate CHAUN's superiority over state-of-the-art uplift models, achieving relative improvements of up to 25.6% in QINI scores. RA-IPS further enhances robustness, outperforming standard IPS by 5.4% under unobserved confounding. The results validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in real-world causal inference tasks.