From Forest to Future Capital: Tracking Land Cover Change in Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) from 2021 to 2026 with PlanetScope Imagery
Authors: Clarissa Rui Min Ong, Elizabeth Tee Inn Loo, Kenneth Woon Hao Soh, William Rachmadi, Qiming Zheng, Hao Li
Organizations: Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 117570, Singapore · Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, , China
Abstract
Indonesia's relocation of its political and administrative capital from Jakarta to Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) has been framed around a Forest City vision, yet rapid construction within the Core Government Area (KIPP) raises concerns over land conversion, vegetation loss, and carbon stock decline. This study applies remote sensing techniques to systematically assess land use and vegetation cover change in KIPP from 2021 to 2026 using PlanetScope SuperDove satellite imagery. Cloud-free mosaics were prepared and analysed through spectral indices, including the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Red Edge (NDRE), and Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), alongside supervised land use and land cover (LULC) classification using a Support Vector Machine algorithm. Results show substantial environmental transformation, with mean NDVI declined by 17.1%, total carbon stock decreased by 0.28%, developed land expanded by 672%, and total vegetation declined by 18.1%. Vegetation loss was most extensive between 2023 and 2024, although a temporary recovery in NDVI and carbon stock occurred from 2024 to 2025 as active clearing slowed and development shifted towards already-cleared land. Overall, the findings demonstrate that remote sensing provides an effective approach for monitoring the environmental impacts of large-scale urban development, while highlighting the need for higher-resolution, hyperspectral, and SAR-based methods to improve detection of construction stages and plantation-related land cover changes.
Rapid urbanization in Dhaka District, Bangladesh has triggered substantial alterations in land use and environmental conditions, necessitating systematic monitoring for informed urban planning and ecological sustainability. This study employs remote sensing data and machine learning techniques to analyze spatiotemporal changes in land cover and vegetation dynamics between 2019 and 2024. High-resolution satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat 8 was utilized to classify land cover types and compute spectral indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). A supervised machine learning approach incorporating Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest classifiers was applied using labeled geospatial training points within Google Earth Engine. Accuracy assessments were conducted using confusion matrices and kappa statistics. Results indicate a 59.5% increase in urban built-up areas and a significant decline in vegetation (-8.46%) and water bodies (-7.77%) over the five-year period. Land conversion from vegetated and aquatic areas to urban infrastructure was identified as a dominant trend. Among the models, Random Forest demonstrated the highest classification accuracy. These findings underscore the growing environmental pressures driven by unregulated urban expansion in Dhaka. The study highlights the potential of remote sensing and machine learning tools in providing timely, actionable data to support sustainable urban development, land-use regulation, and ecosystem conservation policies.
Muhammad Masud Tarek, Md. Alamgir Hossain, Md. Samiul Islam +1
Urban vegetation monitoring plays a vital role in understanding environmental changes, yet comprehensive datasets for this purpose remain limited. To address this gap, we present the Temporal Remote-sensing Repository for Analyzing Change Detection (TERRA-CD), a benchmark dataset comprising 5,221 Sentinel-2 image pairs from 2019 and 2024, covering 232 cities across the USA and Europe. The dataset features three distinct annotation schemes: 4-class land cover mapping masks, 3-class vegetation change masks, and 13-class semantic change masks capturing all possible land cover transitions. Using various deep learning approaches including Siamese networks, STANet variants, Bi-SRNet, Changemask, Post-Classification Comparison, and HRSCD strategies, we evaluated the dataset's effectiveness for both vegetation Multi-class Change Detection as well as Semantic Change Detection. The proposed dataset and methods are available at https://github.com/omkarsoak/TERRA-CD.
Accurate monitoring of oil palm plantations is critical for balancing economic development with environmental conservation in Southeast Asia. However, existing plantation maps often suffer from low spatial resolution and a lack of recent temporal coverage, impeding effective surveillance of rapid land-use changes. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework to generate 10-meter resolution oil palm plantation maps for Indonesia and Malaysia from 2020 to 2024, utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery without requiring new manual annotations. To address the resolution mismatch between coarse 100-meter historical labels and 10-meter imagery, we employ a U-Net architecture optimized with Determinant-based Mutual Information (DMI). This approach effectively mitigates the influence of label noise. We validated our method against 2,058 manually verified points, achieving overall accuracies of 70.64%, 63.53%, and 60.06% for the years 2020, 2022, and 2024, respectively. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that oil palm coverage in the region peaked in 2022 before experiencing a decline in 2024. Furthermore, land cover transition analysis highlights a concerning trajectory of plantation expansion into flooded vegetation areas, despite a general stabilization in rotations with other crop types. These high-resolution maps provide essential data for monitoring sustainability commitments and deforestation dynamics in the region, and the generated datasets are made publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17768444.