Beyond the Gegenbauer Paradigm: q-Orthogonal Kernels for Machine Learning

Quantum kernel methods have been proposed as a promising approach for leveraging near-term quantum computers for supervised learning, yet rigorous benchmarks against strong classical baselines remain scarce. We present a comprehensive empirical study of quantum kernel support vector machines (QSVMs) across nine binary classification datasets, four quantum feature maps, three classical kernels, and multiple noise models, totalling 970 experiments with strict nested cross-validation. Our analysis spans four phases: (i) statistical significance testing, revealing that none of 29 pairwise quantum-classical comparisons reach significance at $α= 0.05$; (ii) learning curve analysis over six training fractions, showing steeper quantum slopes on six of eight datasets that nonetheless fail to close the gap to the best classical baseline; (iii) hardware validation on IBM ibm_fez (Heron r2), demonstrating kernel fidelity $r \geq 0.976$ across six experiments; and (iv) seed sensitivity analysis confirming reproducibility (mean CV 1.4%). A Kruskal-Wallis factorial analysis reveals that dataset choice dominates performance variance ($\varepsilon^2 = 0.73$), while kernel type accounts for only 9%. Spectral analysis offers a mechanistic explanation: current quantum feature maps produce eigenspectra that are either too flat or too concentrated, missing the intermediate profile of the best classical kernel, the radial basis function (RBF). Quantum kernel training (QKT) via kernel-target alignment yields the single competitive result -- balanced accuracy 0.968 on breast cancer -- but with ~2,000x computational overhead. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for quantum kernel research. The complete benchmark suite is publicly available to facilitate reproduction and extension.

We study post-training interpretability for Support Vector Machines (SVMs) built from truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels. Since the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space is finite-dimensional and admits an explicit tensor-product orthonormal basis, the fitted decision function can be expanded exactly in intrinsic RKHS coordinates. This leads to Orthogonal Representation Contribution Analysis (ORCA), a diagnostic framework based on normalized Orthogonal Kernel Contribution (OKC) indices. These indices quantify how the squared RKHS norm of the classifier is distributed across interaction orders, total polynomial degrees, marginal coordinate effects, and pairwise contributions. The methodology is fully post-training and requires neither surrogate models nor retraining. We illustrate its diagnostic value on a synthetic double-spiral problem and on a real five-dimensional echocardiogram dataset. The results show that the proposed indices reveal structural aspects of model complexity that are not captured by predictive accuracy alone.

Kernel methods compare inputs through feature maps. Quantum kernels follow the same principle: input data are encoded into quantum states, which define quantum feature representations in Hilbert spaces. Kernel values are then obtained by estimating inner products between these states using suitable quantum circuit measurements. As a result, quantum kernels may be intractable to compute classically while remaining efficiently computable on quantum hardware, potentially leading to a quantum advantage. However, designing effective quantum kernels remains a major challenge. Many quantum kernels, such as the fidelity kernel, suffer from exponential concentration. This results in near-identity kernel matrices that fail to capture meaningful data correlations and lead to overfitting and poor generalization. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy for constructing quantum kernels that achieve good generalization performance, drawing inspiration from benign overfitting in classical machine learning. We introduce the concept of Local-Global quantum kernels, which combine two components: a local quantum kernel based on measurements of small subsystems, and a global quantum kernel derived from full-system measurements. To support the effectiveness of the proposed construction, we show theoretically and empirically that Local-Global quantum kernels exhibit benign overfitting.