Stochasticity Is Not the Hard Part: Reduction and Complexity in Instructional Sequencing over Prerequisite DAGs
Authors: Zonglin Han, Yichen Chen, Jiawen Jiang, Tongan Shi, Kristian A. Stevens
Organizations: Department of Computer Science, University of California, Davis · International Digital Economy College, Minjiang University · 2International Digital Economy College, Minjiang University · School of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Liaoning Normal University
Abstract
When a student must learn concepts connected by prerequisite dependencies, when does the order of instruction matter, and what does it cost to find the best one? We study instructional sequencing as a stochastic shortest-path problem in which attempting a concept succeeds with a state-dependent probability and failure leaves the learner state unchanged. We first prove that this stochasticity can be eliminated exactly: the problem collapses to a deterministic shortest-path problem on the lattice of prerequisite order ideals, preserving optimal values and actions. The collapse removes stochastic complexity but not combinatorial complexity: optimal sequencing remains NP-hard -- via reduction from feedback arc set in tournaments -- even with no prerequisite edges, unit costs, uniform binary nonnegative transfer, and success probabilities at least 1/2. Hardness is not uniform: when realizable transfer preferences remain jointly acyclic with the prerequisites, any topological order of the residual joint graph is optimal, and fixed prerequisite width yields polynomial-time exact dynamic programming. A computable diagnostic, mΔ, bounds the value of sequencing before optimization. On 70,893 interactions from an introductory CS course, the diagnostic certifies a doubly easy regime -- little value to optimize and little space to search -- while constructed transfer instances realize the challenging regime, where myopic sequencing suffers large regret yet exact A* with a consistent heuristic expands only linearly many states on that family.
We study sequential interventions under prerequisite constraints. In this setting, admissible intervention sequences are paths in the ideal lattice of a finite prerequisite poset rather than unconstrained action strings. We give an exact local-to-global theory of order sensitivity on this state space. First, we prove that any two admissible paths with the same endpoints differ by a finite sequence of elementary diamond swaps. Second, for edge-additive path valuations, we show that path-independence is equivalent to vanishing diamond curvature, yielding an endpoint potential with a canonical Möbius parameterization on the ideal lattice. Third, we prove that a local diamond field is induced by an edge-based path model if and only if it satisfies cube consistency, with uniqueness after fixing a reference-tree gauge. Under reduced-state longitudinal assumptions, supported reference paths identify reference-path scores, whereas local order effects require two-sided support of both orders on each diamond. These results yield exact planning consequences, including an order-insensitivity bound and dynamic programming on the truncated ideal lattice.
Sequential learning is order-dependent: from Pile-style next-token domain adaptation to instruction-SFT and DPO, N candidate sources induce N! possible curricula. We show that the local order effect is governed by a computable geometric quantity, the Lie-bracket commutator of gradient update fields, yielding a pairwise score for whether A->B or B->A is better for a target domain. The pairwise bracket primitive also defines a Lie-Bracket Tournament: with a shared theta_0 target-gradient reference, Hessian symmetry gives Borda/row-sum scores from one Hessian-vector product per source, O(N) dot products, and an O(N log N) sort, without materializing the O(N^2) edge matrix. Empirically, the planner reaches 98.1%/98.9% pairwise accuracy at k=1 for instruction-SFT/DPO, remains at 73.1%/72.2% at k=20, and preserves the original pretraining-domain evidence with 82.4-92.0% accuracy across four LLMs and 91.1% on diffusion. At curriculum scale, it recovers the best of all 3! schedules in 87.5% of trials, ranks 85 Stack programming-language source domains for a Python target in the 99th sampled percentile, and reaches the 99.0-99.6th sampled percentile on 56 MMLU subjects, sharply above the reported descending gradient-norm baseline. These results reframe sequential learning as a geometric tournament problem: commutators provide both local pairwise order information and a scalable primitive for many-domain schedules.
We study the sample complexity of learning an ε-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with S states, A actions, minimum cost cmin, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states B⋆, where any algorithm requires at least Ω(SAB⋆3/(cminε2)) samples to return an ε-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever cmin=0 an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when cmin=0, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.