A Six-Dimensional Taxonomy of Post-Training Adaptation Techniques with Applications in AI Governance

Every supervised fine-tuning run forces the same chain of decisions, such as learning rate, batch size, LoRA or full fine-tuning, how many epochs, which optimiser, and what data to feed the model. Each of these is typically rediscovered from scratch for every new model and dataset. Here we measure them under one instrument: a sweep that varies one lever at a time, and spans dense and mixture-of-experts models in two families (Qwen3 and Llama), on four real-world customer SFT datasets, for both LoRA and full fine-tuning. These datasets give a controlled testbed: each task carries an evaluation built with the customer, and its training data is produced by iterative supervised fine-tuning that refines model outputs until they pass that evaluation, so the supervised target is internally consistent and the task judge we report against is the criterion the data was built to satisfy. We ask how the optimal learning rate and batch size move with model scale, family, and data, and whether one selection rule transfers across them; what LoRA trades against full fine-tuning, and how its rank and alpha set what the adapter can learn; whether validation loss (or other metrics, such as loss landscape flatness) faithfully ranks downstream quality; whether post-training gains scale with model size and data volume, on a model ladder extended through mixtures-of-experts to 235B parameters; how many epochs to train before general instruction-following erodes; and whether a geometry-aware optimiser improves on AdamW. Each recommendation is paired with a measure of its uncertainty.

How can we train models whose post-trained capabilities survive subsequent fine-tuning? Rather than focusing on downstream interventions to mitigate forgetting of upstream capabilities, we study how upstream training choices - that is, the manner in which a capability is acquired - shape how robustly that capability is retained. We investigate this question in a controlled three-stage language-model pipeline: pretraining, post-training to acquire a target capability, and downstream fine-tuning on a new objective. Across 135M and 1B models, two post-training domains, and two downstream fine-tuning tasks, we find that immediate post-training performance does not reliably predict retention after subsequent fine-tuning: training recipes that look equivalent immediately after post-training can retain the target capability very differently after subsequent fine-tuning. In particular, early exposure - mixing post-training data into pretraining - consistently improves the frontier between retained upstream performance and downstream performance. In compute-matched experiments, where the target data must be allocated between pretraining and post-training, we find that the optimum lies at neither extreme. Together with our other empirical and theoretical findings, this supports the view that post-training drives immediate specialization while early exposure improves robustness to later forgetting. Replay and dropout, typically used to mitigate forgetting as it occurs during fine-tuning, provide complementary gains to early exposure when applied during post-training. Our findings suggest that robustness to subsequent fine-tuning should be treated as a first-class objective of upstream training, addressed preventatively through choices like early exposure rather than reactively during fine-tuning itself.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks. In this work, we analyze TSFM post-training methods based on their locus of intervention in the prediction pipeline, yielding five categories: parameter adaptation, context augmentation, model composition, output processing and uncertainty control, and compression and specialization. Within each category, we study main representative methods and discuss their current limitations. We further identify future directions toward controlled adaptation, reliable context construction, uncertainty-aware model composition, calibrated output processing, and deployment-aware specialization. Overall, by providing a unifying framework for the emerging TSFM post-training landscape, this work aims to support future research to navigate the design space between a pretrained TSFM and its reliable downstream deployment.