Learning Suffers More Than the Policy Class Under Partial Observability: A Closed-Form Analysis
Authors: Idil Gözel
Organizations: University College London · Department of Physics and Astronomy University College London, London, UK
Abstract
When a reinforcement learning agent cannot observe the full state, we usually blame its policies: it cannot see enough to represent a good one. We show that in a solvable case the bigger problem lies elsewhere. Even when a good policy is available and the agent's value function is expressive enough to describe it exactly, learning still ends up somewhere far worse. We study a partially observed linear-quadratic problem in which a standard actor-critic learner can be solved in closed form. At our default setting the best policy the agent can represent is already close to optimal, costing 10.4% more than the ideal controller that observes everything. Learning does not find it. The algorithm instead comes to rest at a policy that is 35% worse than the best one available to it, and we can say exactly where and why. The cause is a bias in what the critic learns rather than a limit on what the actor can express. Because the agent cannot attribute what it sees to the part of the state it cannot observe, the critic misreads that unexplained variation as sharp curvature in its own value estimates, and the actor follows that error away from the optimum. We derive closed-form expressions for the resulting policy, for its cost, and for the one design choice that removes the problem, which is how far the learner looks ahead before trusting its own value estimates. Deep reinforcement learning experiments follow these predictions closely. Notably, giving the agent memory of past observations does not help, while changing how far it looks ahead does.
The family of linear recurrent neural networks has shown strong performance as recurrent memory units in partially observable reinforcement learning. We provide a theoretical justification for their empirical effectiveness by constructing and studying two linear filters: (i) the first exactly reproduces the pre-softmax logits of the belief vector in a hidden Markov model (HMM) under a deterministic transition matrix, thereby serving as a sufficient statistic for optimal policy learning, (ii) the second achieves vanishing state-decoding error under a nearly deterministic transition matrix, thus reducing state ambiguity to near zero. The results extend to action-controlled HMMs, where the corresponding linear filters become time-varying with action-dependent dynamics. We illustrate our main results through numerical experiments and further show that the constructed linear filter serves as a strong feature extractor in a small reinforcement learning game.
Physical or operational constraints often impose communications limitations on autonomous agents. Such limitations complicate monitoring or multiagent coordination. Even when strong communications are absent, some information may still be available. The remainder of the relevant agent state may be reconstructed via estimation. The actions taken by an agent are a potential source of information -- as the agent interacts with the environment, these actions may be observed even in the absence of explicit communication. We investigate using actions to estimate the state of an agent, using reinforcement learning to develop policies which make the estimation problem more tractable. Policy observability is encouraged through the training reward and is analyzed using simulation of the trained agent. In an aircraft tracking problem a policy with enhanced observability is found that has minimal impact on nominal task performance.
In continual reinforcement learning (CRL), good performance requires never-ending learning, acting, and exploration in a big, partially observable world. Most CRL experiments have focused on loss of plasticity -- the inability to keep learning -- in one-off experiments where some unobservable non-stationarity is added to classic fully observable MDPs. Further, these experiments rarely consider the role of partial observability and the importance of CRL agents that use memory or recurrence. One potential reason for this focus on mitigating loss of plasticity without considering partial observability is that many partially-observable CRL environments are prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we introduce Forager, a light-weight partially-observable CRL environment with a constant memory footprint. We provide a set of experiments and sample tasks demonstrating that Forager is challenging for current CRL agents and yet also allows for in-depth study of those agents. We demonstrate that agents exhibit loss of plasticity, proposed mitigations can help, but that most useful is to leverage state construction. We conclude with a variant of Forager that generates an unending stream of new tasks to learn that clearly highlights the limitations of current CRL agents.