Estimating Uncertainty in Galaxy Morphology Classification

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1,pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Existing astronomy foundation models provide strong galaxy representations, but adapting them to new survey conditions and survey-specific morphology recognition tasks still requires substantial human supervision. We show that VLM-based VQA systems contain meaningful visual-semantic priors that can serve as weak supervision for downstream morphology classifiers and improve morphology classification under limited human-label budgets. We first introduce a survey-oriented VQA benchmark spanning two representative imaging regimes and evaluate state-of-the-art VLMs on galaxy morphology questions. The results show that these models capture useful morphology signals and informative uncertainty, but are not sufficiently reliable to replace human annotators. Motivated by this finding, we use a general-purpose VLM as a morphology teacher for Zoobot, an astronomy foundation model pretrained on large-scale Galaxy Zoo annotations. Across two survey domains and multiple annotation budgets, the VLM teacher consistently improves Zoobot's downstream morphology classification. These results demonstrate that a general-purpose VLM provides knowledge complementary to an astronomy foundation model and can teach it to better recognize galaxy morphology under limited human supervision. The resulting pipeline is designed for label-efficient adaptation to forthcoming large-scale surveys, including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The benchmark and code are publicly available at https://github.com/fw-ic/VLM-morphology-teacher.

In this study, we explore in depth a few under-studied topics at the intersection of uncertainty estimation and segmentation. Prior work has shown that the quality of uncertainty estimates can be very sensitive to a range of variables. As one of the main uses of uncertainty estimation is to help identify and deal with prediction errors in practical scenarios, any factors that affect this must be clearly identified. For example, do more challenging domains or different datasets and architectures result in worse performance when using uncertainty estimates? Can prior frames in a video sequence in fact provide useful uncertainty estimates comparable to other approaches? Is it possible to combine uncertainty estimation approaches, taking advantage of sample diversity, to get better estimates? Finally, when might it make sense to use an ensemble-based uncertainty estimate over a deterministic network? We address these questions by creating a framework for and executing a large scale study across many variables such as datasets, backbones, and downstream tasks, for both semantic and panoptic segmentation. We find that a) the more challenging task of panoptic segmentation usually results in worse performance while high performance variance between datasets and backbones indicates that generalization is not guaranteed, b) time series samples can be useful for specific configurations, but in many cases are not worth the cost, c) sample diversity shows the most promise in the downstream task of calibration, but otherwise fails to beat simpler alternatives, d) a deterministic approach is adequate for some downstream tasks, but ensembles allow for significant improvements if the right conditions can be achieved in deployment.