Financial Numerical Prediction and Allocation as Token Generation

Financial markets are characterized by extreme non-stationarity, low signal-to-noise ratios, and strong dependence on external information such as news, company fundamentals, and macroeconomic signals. Yet, existing approaches either abstract time-series into text or decouple forecasting from language-based reasoning, leading to a fundamental mismatch between qualitative reasoning and quantitative outcomes. To address this, we introduce StockR1, a time-series-enhanced LLM that unifies stock forecasting and financial reasoning through a verifiable forecast action. Based on a tool-call design, the model first emits a forecast action, which is a structured and interpretable representation of its qualitative market outlook. It then invokes a time-series decoder conditioned on this action to generate distributional future trajectories, leading to more informed question answering and financial reasoning. We optimize the full pipeline with reinforcement learning, where rewards jointly reflect answer validity, forecast accuracy, and consistency between generated actions and observed time-series dynamics. In addition, rewards are reweighted by a sample-level uncertainty scalar, encouraging the model to accommodate varying uncertainty in market dynamics. We evaluate StockR1 on financial question answering and stock forecasting over a large-scale 10-year benchmark. Our method consistently outperforms time-series baselines and general-purpose LLMs, improving reasoning accuracy by 17.7% (4B) and 25.9% (8B). These findings demonstrate that structuring the forecast actions establishes a powerful synergy between language reasoning and temporal prediction, enabling LLMs to reason through verifiable, interpretable, and numerically grounded decisions.

Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability. This study separates these questions through two experiments. First, we construct a unified three-class benchmark from five financial text datasets and compare TF--IDF Naive Bayes, off-the-shelf FinBERT and Financial-RoBERTa encoders, zero-shot Qwen2.5-7B, and QLoRA-adapted Qwen2.5-7B, LLaMA3-8B, and Mistral-7B models. Mistral-7B achieves the best test accuracy (0.8840) and macro-F1 (0.8771), while QLoRA raises Qwen2.5's macro-F1 from 0.7274 to 0.8615. An inverse-frequency class-weighted loss does not improve Qwen2.5. Second, we evaluate economic validity on a temporally separate 2019 Benzinga sample containing 10,637 unique headlines and 13,115 headline--stock observations for a fixed S&P~100 universe. Model probabilities are converted into continuous sentiment scores, aggregated by stock and signal date, and aligned with next-session returns over one-, two-, three-, and five-day horizons. All seven downstream models produce positive but small mean rank information coefficients at the one-day horizon; the largest is 0.0143 for FinBERT. None of the 28 model--horizon tests remains significant after Newey--West inference and false-discovery-rate correction. Portfolio results likewise fail to establish a robust advantage for the best-performing classifiers. The findings show that QLoRA is effective for financial sentiment adaptation, while also documenting a clear gap between classification accuracy and tradable cross-sectional signals.

Can financial news reliably predict short-term stock movements? Despite advances in large language models, this question remains unresolved. We revisit this problem using a zero-shot natural language processing framework, investigating whether models can extract actionable signals from financial news without domain-specific training. We design a structured pipeline that combines zero-shot natural language inference with temporal aggregation, explicitly modelling recency and event-dependent impact horizons when integrating information across articles. To address the need for transparency in high-stakes settings, we introduce a multi-layered explainability framework that links predictions to token-level, article-level, and aggregate evidence, and produces grounded natural language rationales. Across multiple models and prediction horizons, we find that zero-shot approaches consistently fail to outperform simple baselines, with particularly weak performance on negative movements, suggesting deeper structural limitations in mapping news sentiment to short-term price dynamics. However, explainability signals reliably distinguish between trustworthy and unreliable predictions, offering practical value even when accuracy is limited. These findings highlight the limits of zero-shot financial NLP and motivate a shift toward decision-support systems that prioritise transparency and uncertainty awareness. Code: https://github.com/alimert05/zero-shot-stock-xai