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7 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 33

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Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search
Oct 1, 2026Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko +3Large Language Model Forecasting Data-Driven Forecasting
Future Principle
Pixel-Level Transformers in Remote Sensing: A Canopy Height Case Study
Sep 29, 2026Sven Ligensa, Jan Pauls, Karsten Schrödter +2Canopy Remote Sensing
University of Münster Münster, Germany · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement Paris, France
Correct then Forecast: Observer State-Space Models for Time Series Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Alexis-Raja Brachet, Guillaume Clavier--Frémond, Abdelhakim Ziani +2State Space Models Time Series
MICS, CentraleSup´elec, Universit´e Paris-Saclay, France · CentraleSup´elec, IETR UMR CNRS 6164, France · Universit`a di Torino, Torino, Italy.
Downside-Controlled Online Forecast Combination under Delayed and Revised Outcomes
Sep 24, 2026Minkyoung Kim, Hyunjung Byun, Yohan Lee +1Forecast Correction
Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University, Seoul, 03722, South Korea
Taking a Second Look: Correcting Sea Ice Forecasts with Sparse Observations
Sep 21, 2026Tianshuo Zhang, Xianglei Xing, Aowen Yang +4Sea-Surface Temperature Data Forecast
College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
Every Fixed Metric Has a Blind Spot: A Learned Atmospheric Critic for Scoring Forecast Realism
Sep 16, 2026Younes Elberkennou, Dmitri Demler, Thierry Meier +3Forecast Era5 Reanalysis Data
ETH Zürich, Switzerland · ETH AI Center, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Explaining Time Series Forecasting with Horizon-Resolved Attribution
Sep 14, 2026Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee +9Time Series Forecasting Time Series
LG AI Research
Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting
Aug 4, 2026Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Hyeokjun Choe +1Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting Forecast
LG AI Research · Seoul, Republic of Korea
Disagree to Accelerate: Closing the Loop on Diffusion Feature Forecasts
Aug 3, 2026Yanchao Li, Jiaqing Xie, Ben Gao +6Iterative Denoising Methods Forecast
1Nanjing University · 2Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory · 3North University of China +2
Skillful forecasting of offshore winds from satellite scatterometer constellations
Jul 29, 2026Francesco Pinto, Luca Lanzilao, Paco Lopez Dekker +1Offshore Wind Turbine Numerical Weather Prediction
Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands · School of Engineering and Computer Science, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Quellgasse 21, 2501, Biel, Switzerland
Crossing-Free Probabilistic K-Line Forecasts Without Retraining
Jul 29, 2026Runyao Yu, Yuchen Tao, Yujie Chen +2Probabilistic Forecasting Forecast
London Business School London, United Kingdom · RWTH Aachen University Aachen, Germany · The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen, China +1
Real-time optimal control with shallow recurrent decoder networks
Jul 21, 2026Matteo Tomasetto, Francesco Braghin, J. Nathan Kutz +1Reduced-Order Models Optimal Control
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy · Autodesk Research, London, UK · MOX - Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
When Context Compensates for Sparse Event History: AlphaEarth for Spatio-Temporal Point-Process Forecasting
Jul 1, 2026Yahya Aalaila, Mouad Elhamdi, Gerrit Großmann +3Determinantal Point Process Epidemiological Models
1German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) · 5Rhineland-Palatinate Technical University of Kaiserslautern-Landau (RPTU) · 2Universit´e Mohammed VI Polytechnique +2
ForecastAgentSearch: Towards a Multi-Expert Agent Search System for Geopolitical Event Forecasting
Jun 30, 2026Miaomiao Cai, He Chang, Yunshan Ma +1Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting Forecast
National University of Singapore Singapore, Singapore · Communication University of China Beijing, China · Singapore Management University Singapore, Singapore
Measuring Judgment Quality in Natural-Language Explanations: Evidence from Forecasting Tournaments
Jun 29, 2026Christopher W. Karvetski, Sheldon S. Huang, Simas Kučinskas +4Large Language Model Forecasting Forecast
Forecasting Research Institute · Good Judgment Inc · University of Toronto +4
Model Validation of Agentic AI Systems: A POMDP-Based Framework for Belief-State, Forecast, and Policy Validation
Jun 16, 2026Matthew Francis DixonValidation Forecast
Quiota LLC
OmniPMNet: Bridging discrete and gridded PM10 forecasts via omni-query neural processes
Jun 12, 2026Shuangshuang He, Shuo WangAir Pollution Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
ColorfulClouds Technology Co., Ltd., 100875 Beijing, China. · School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China. · D-ITET, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
Jun 10, 2026Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding +1Forecast Language-Model Agents
Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge
Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task
Jun 9, 2026Mosh Levy, Yoav Goldberg, Asa Cooper SticklandLarge Language Model Forecasting Reasoning Trajectory
Bar-Ilan University · Constellation · UK AI Security Institute +1
Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts
Jun 7, 2026Ágnes Baran, Máté MihalinaNumerical Weather Prediction Post-Processing
Faculty of Informatics, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
ODTQA-FoRe: An Open-Domain Tabular Question Answering Dataset for Future Data Forecasting and Reasoning
Jun 1, 2026Zhensheng Wang, Xiaole Liu, Wenmian Yang +3Forecast Real Estate Data
School of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, PR China · Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, PR China · Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Future Networks, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, PR China +1
AdaWeather: Adaptively Mixing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Logarithmic Regret
Jun 1, 2026Saptarishi Dhanuka, Sarvesh Iyer, Manmeet Singh +5Weather Prediction Forecast
Ashoka University · Ashoka University, India · Western Kentucky University
Stabilizing distribution-free probabilistic forecasts
May 27, 2026Jente Van Belle, Honglin Wen, Wouter Verbeke +1Probabilistic Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Belgium · Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom +3
Proper Calibeating
May 26, 2026Dean P. Foster, Sergiu HartCalibrated Uncertainty Forecast
Department of Statistics, Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Amazon, New York. · Institute of Mathematics, Department of Economics, and Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Graph-based Complexity Forecasts in UK En Route Airspace Using Relevant Aircraft Interactions
May 22, 2026Edward Henderson, George De Ath, Nick PepperAir Traffic Control Accurate Traffic Forecasting
The Alan Turing Institute · University of Exeter
AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion
May 20, 2026Somnath Luitel, Manmeet Singh, Joshua Durkee +11Forecast Hyperspectral Image Super-Resolution
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA +3
Improving Ensemble CAPE Forecasts with a Diffusion Model Incorporating Aerosol Information
May 19, 2026Zachary James, Joseph Guinness, Arthur DeGaetanoAtmospheric Dynamics Forecast
Cornell University, Department of Statistics and Data Science · Washington University in St. Louis, Department of Statistics and Data Science · Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Fusion-fission forecasts when AI will shift to undesirable behavior
May 14, 2026Neil F. Johnson, Frank Yingjie HuoAgent Behavior Modeling Forecast
Physics Department, The George Washington University, Washington DC 20052, USA
Beyond Coefficients: Forecast-Necessity Testing for Interpretable Causal Discovery in Nonlinear Time-Series Models
Apr 20, 2026Valentina Kuskova, Dmitry Zaytsev, Michael CoppedgeCausal Discovery Methods Causal
Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society · University of Notre Dame · Notre Dame, IN, USA +1
Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
Apr 17, 2026Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein +10Forecast Rainfall
Harvard College, Cambridge, MA, USA. · University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. · Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. +6
An intuitive rearranging of the Yates covariance decomposition for probabilistic verification of forecasts with the Brier score
Mar 4, 2026Bruno Hebling VieiraProbabilistic Forecasting Forecast
Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich,2026 Switzerland
Surrogate Modeling for Explainable Predictive Time Series Corrections
Dec 27, 2024Alfredo Lopez, Florian SobieczkyTime Series Forecasting Forecast
Software Competence Center Hagenberg, Hagenberg, Austria.
How Proper Scoring Rules Shape LLM Forecasting
Date pendingBenjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim +2Large Language Model Forecasting Forecast
Lightning Rod Labs · Technology and Operations Management, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France · Wharton School and School of Arts & Sciences, University of Pennsylvania

Oct 1, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search

Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko, Mykola Khandoga+2

Future Principle

Large Language Model Forecasting Data-Driven Forecasting Forecast Inference Cost

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Outcome-based reinforcement learning can train language models to forecast real-world events, but prior forecasting work either freezes research context before training or deploys agentic research only at test time, so the skill of gathering evidence is never shaped by the reward. We introduce an agentic forecasting environment, dataset, and harness built from 2,100+ resolved Polymarket questions; the agent acquires its own context at rollout time (web search, page reading, and financial time series, all restricted by layered leak filtering to information published before each question's cutoff), and we train Qwen3.5-35B-A3B (3B active parameters) on it with single-epoch GRPO under a Brier-score reward. Training changes how the agent interacts with information: calibration improves 30-40%, and search attempts fall from 3.8 to 2.25 per rollout as evidence discipline is learned. Evaluated in an identical harness against four frontier models, the trained policy also finishes ahead of every frontier model tested at evidence-based forecasting, including Claude Opus 4.5 (soft-Brier 0.254 vs. 0.256, n=265), at about 5% of the inference cost, and its margin is widest on the hardest questions, the ones the crowd itself had not decided. We release the environment, dataset, and per-rollout records as a reusable harness for temporal forecasting agents.

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