Prediction Markets

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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  1. From Explanations to Interventions: Execution-Guided Counterfactual Synthesis in Temporal Graphs

    Sep 10, 2026Minwoo Yu, Young-guk HaCounterfactual ExplanationTemporal Knowledge Graphs

  2. Improving 5G AI-RAN MCS Selection by Predicting Retransmissions

    Sep 10, 2026Tamerlan Aghayev, Maxime Elkael, Michele Polese +5Open Radio Access NetworksSignal-To-Noise Ratio

  3. Robust Beam Prediction for V2X Networks with Multi-Modal Sensing

    Sep 9, 2026Chen Shang, Dinh Thai Hoang, Diep N. Nguyen +1V2XMulti-Sensor Fusion

  4. Transferable Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) Estimation Model from Multi-Sensor Data with Sparse Field Calibration

    Aug 12, 2026Pann Thinzar Seint, Bryan Atwood, Subas ChhatkuliAbove-Ground BiomassForests

  5. MultiPathFormer: Towards a Foundation Model for Multipath Wireless Propagation

    Aug 5, 2026Blessed Guda, Kayley Sze, Carlee Joe-WongWireless Foundation ModelsFoundation Model

  6. WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li +1Prediction MarketsFrontier Models

  7. AI World Cup 2026: Benchmarking Large Language Models for End-to-End Football Tournament Prediction

    Aug 4, 2026Jonaid Shianifar, Iias FaiudPrediction MarketsLeaderboard

  8. Verifier-Guided Model Discovery for Physical Dynamical Systems with Pretrained Symbolic Transformers

    Aug 1, 2026Farbod Faraji, Francesco BelardinelliSymbolic RegressionNonlinear Dynamics

  9. Benchmarking the Residual: What Long-Horizon Evaluations Add Beyond Matched Short-Task Performance

    Jul 29, 2026Chao Peng, Zhiheng Lyu, Peijie Dong +2Long-HorizonLong-Horizon Evolution

  10. A Persona-based Rate Action Index

    Jul 29, 2026Hayden Helm, Andrew DassoriPersonasOnline Shoppers Purchasing Intention

  11. WALoMA: A Multitask Wireless Foundation Model via Adaptive Low-Rank Masked Autoencoders

    Jul 28, 2026Madi Makin, Asmaa Abdallah, Abdulkadir Celik +1Wireless Foundation Models3D Masked Autoencoders

  12. Multi-Phonation Graph Learning with Self-Supervised Speech Embeddings for ALS Detection and Progression Prediction

    Jul 28, 2026Behrad TaghiBeyglou, Fatemeh Bagheri, Ervin SejdicDysarthric SpeechSelf-Supervised Speech Models

  13. GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs

    Jul 26, 2026Mohammad Ostadmohammadi, Sepehr Kazemi, Hamid R. RabieeTemporal Graph Neural NetworksTemporal Dependence

  14. Context-Adaptive Inference: A Unified Statistical and Foundation-Model View

    Jul 25, 2026Yue Yao, Caleb N. Ellington, Jingyun Jia +9In-Context LearningProbabilistic Inference

  15. Predictive Extrema, Unprofitable Policies: An AI-Assisted Audit of Candle-Based Binance Spot Timing Models

    Jul 21, 2026Ayoub JadouliCryptocurrency MarketsPrediction Markets

  16. WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Zhaokai Wang, Tianlin Gui, Jiayuan Rao +3Sports AnalyticsPrediction Markets

  17. FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches

    Jul 20, 2026Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason XuPrediction MarketsBetting

  18. Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

    Jul 15, 2026Xiao Ye, Jacob Dineen, Evan Zhu +3Prediction MarketsForesight

  19. TSCoNet: A Two-Stage Copula CNN-LSTM for Uncertainty-Aware Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    Jul 11, 2026Jongwook Kim, Jong-Min KimSpatio-Temporal ForecastingPredictive Uncertainty

  20. Application of machine learning to monster level prediction in tabletop RPG game design

    Jul 10, 2026Jolanta Śliwa, Jakub AdamczykRole-PlayingMachine Learning

  21. Agent Delivery Engineering Predictive Reliability Framework

    Jul 8, 2026Dexing LiuEarly Failure PredictionReliability

  22. When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

    Jul 7, 2026Anri Gu, Nicole Kagan, Alec Sun +2Prediction Markets

  23. RIGS-Refiner: Risk-Guided Recursive Refinement in Prediction Space for Colonoscopy Polyp Segmentation

    Jul 3, 2026Jiachi Zhang, Zhuoyu Wu, Wenqi FangPolyp SegmentationAdaptive Shape Refinement

  24. Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

    Jul 3, 2026Yishu Wang, Yuxuan Wang, Jiaqi Deng +1Prediction MarketsArtificial Intelligence Systems

  25. Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting

    Jul 2, 2026Vivienne MingHuman-Ai CollaborationPrediction Markets

  26. Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry

    Jul 2, 2026Yuante Li, Yicheng Tao, Kate Zhang +3Multi-Agent ReasoningDeliberation

  27. Meta-Transfer Learning for mmWave Beam Alignment

    Jul 1, 2026Ahmet Nuri Cevik, Sinem ColeriMillimeter WaveMeta-Learning

  28. Velocity Prediction in Automatic Guitar Transcription

    Jun 19, 2026Jackson Loth, Xavier Riley, Simon Dixon +1Music TranscriptionTranscription

  29. Trusting Right Predictions for Wrong Reasons: A LIME Based Analysis of Deep Learning Interpretability in Lung Cancer Diagnosis

    Jun 14, 2026Samarpan Poudel, Vladislav D VekslerNon-Small Cell Lung CancerClinical Prediction

  30. Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior

    Jun 11, 2026Haowei QianPrediction MarketsCognitive Science

  31. Can News Predict the Market? Limits of Zero-Shot Financial NLP and the Role of Explainable AI

    Jun 10, 2026Ali M Karaoglu, Shreyank N GowdaFinancial Sentiment AnalysisMarket

  32. Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

    Jun 9, 2026Haofei Yu, Yining Zhao, Guanyu Lin +1Computational Social ScienceBelief

  33. DiffSight-Former: Modeling Structural Differences and Temporal Dynamics for Glaucoma Progression Prediction

    Jun 8, 2026Yi Huang, Lei Bi, Jinman KimGlaucomaFundus Images

  34. LatentWave: JEPA Pretraining for Wireless Foundation Models

    Jun 4, 2026Ahmed Mohamed, Ahmed Aboulfotouh, Hatem Abou-ZeidWireless Foundation ModelsRadio Frequency

  35. Edge Prediction for Roof Wireframe Reconstruction with Transformers

    Jun 1, 2026Gustav Hanning, Ludvig Dillén, Jonathan Astermark +2Real-Time Semantic SegmentationPoint Clouds

  36. Design and Evaluation of Multi-Agent AI Oracle Systems for Prediction Market Resolution

    May 29, 2026Tarun KotaPrediction MarketsMulti-Agent Large Language Model Systems

  37. Stance Detection in Prediction Markets: Addressing Imbalanced Trader Commentary via Counterfactual Augmentation and Market Context

    May 27, 2026Thomas MbricePrediction MarketsTweet-Level Stance Detection

  38. StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment

    May 25, 2026Yunhua Pei, Jingyu Hu, Yiwei Shi +3MarketLegal Natural Language Processing Benchmarks

  39. PolyGnosis 2.0: Enhancing LLM Reasoning via Agentic Harness Engineering for Polymarket and OSINT Insight Extraction

    May 25, 2026Daren Wang, Hong Xu, Jiawen XianPrediction MarketsMulti-Agent Reasoning

  40. Right Predictions, Misleading Explanations: On the Vulnerability of Vision-Language Model Explanations

    May 15, 2026Narges Babadi, Hadis KarimipourBlack-Box Adversarial AttacksConcept-Based Explainability

  41. ADAPT: A Self-Calibrating Proactive Autoscaler for Container Orchestration

    May 15, 2026Himanshu Singh BaghelRate ScalingExponential Moving Average

  42. Fast Adversarial Attacks with Gradient Prediction

    May 14, 2026Kamil Ciosek, Aleksandr V. Petrov, Nicolò Felicioni +1Black-Box Adversarial AttacksGradcam

  43. Algometrics: Forecasting Under Algorithmic Feedback

    May 13, 2026Marc SchmittPrediction MarketsPredictive Performance

  44. Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-Informed Priors

    May 11, 2026Jongwoo Choi, Sean O'HaganBayesian Inference ApproachesPriors

  45. Multi-Dimensional Behavioral Evaluation of Agentic Stock Prediction Systems Using Large Language Model Judges with Closed-Loop Reinforcement Learning Feedback

    May 7, 2026Mohammad Al Ridhawi, Mahtab Haj Ali, Hussein Al OsmanAgentic EvaluationsLarge Language Model Judges

  46. Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference

    May 4, 2026Yudong Liu, Yuan Li, Zijia Tang +12Vision-Language-ActionPre-Trained Vision-Language Models

  47. Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents

    May 1, 2026Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel ShuvalovPrediction Markets

  48. KellyBench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Sequential Decision Making

    Apr 30, 2026Thomas Grady, Kip Parker, Iliyan Zarov +3BettingSequential Decision Making

  49. Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis]

    Apr 22, 2026Huaiyu Jia, Luofeng Zhou, Wentao Zhang +3Prediction MarketsMarket

  50. Towards Event-Aware Forecasting in DeFi: Insights from On-chain Automated Market Maker Protocols

    Apr 22, 2026Huaiyu Jia, Jiehshun You, Yizhi Luo +2Decentralized FinanceArbitrage

  51. Information Aggregation with AI Agents

    Apr 21, 2026Spyros GalanisPrediction MarketsArtificial Intelligence Agents

  52. An `Inverse' Experimental Framework to Estimate Market Efficiency

    Apr 20, 2026Thomas Asikis, Heinrich H. NaxMatching MarketsMarket

  53. Target Parameterization in Diffusion Models for Nonlinear Spatiotemporal System Identification

    Apr 19, 2026Achraf El Messaoudi, Noureddine Khaous, Karim CherifiSystem IdentificationTurbulence

  54. Human-AI Collaboration for Estimating Scientific Replicability

    Apr 19, 2026Tatiana Chakravorti, Robert Fraleigh, Timothy Fritton +7ReproducibilityArtificial Intelligence Scientists

  55. Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents

    Apr 17, 2026Chuyang Wei, Maohang Gao, Zhixin Han +12Prediction MarketsPrivate Signals

  56. From Leakage to Fidelity: Reliable Benchmarking for Temporal Cascade Prediction

    Oct 29, 2025Jie Peng, Rui Wang, Qiang Wang +4Prediction MarketsClick-Through Rate Prediction

  57. LLP: LLM-Based Product Pricing in E-commerce

    Oct 10, 2025Hairu Wang, Sheng You, Qiheng Zhang +5E-CommercePrices

  58. MILAAP: Mobile Link Allocation via Attention-based Prediction

    Jun 24, 2025Yung-Fu Chen, Anish AroraChannel State InformationAccurate Traffic Forecasting

  59. TIP-Search: Time-Predictable Inference Scheduling for Market Prediction under Uncertain Load

    May 30, 2025Xibai WangDeadlinesPrediction Markets

  60. From system models to class models: An in-context learning paradigm

    Aug 25, 2023Marco Forgione, Filippo Pura, Dario PigaSystem IdentificationIn-Context Learning