Decision-Aware Approximation of Belief Functions for Evidential Combinatorial Optimization

This work considers a number of optimization problems and reductive relations between them. The two main problems we are interested in are the Optimal Decision Tree and Set Cover. We study these two fundamental tasks under precedence constraints, that is, if a test (or set) $X$ is a predecessor of $Y$, then in any feasible decision tree $X$ needs to be an ancestor of $Y$ (or respectively, if $Y$ is added to set cover, then so must be $X$). For the Optimal Decision Tree we consider two optimization criteria: worst case identification time (height of the tree) or the average identification time. Similarly, for the Set Cover we study two cost measures: the size of the cover or the average cover time. Our approach is to develop a number of algorithmic reductions, where an approximation algorithm for one problem provides an approximation for another via a black-box usage of a procedure for the former. En route we introduce other optimization problems either to complete the `reduction landscape' or because they hold the essence of combinatorial structure of our problems. The latter is brought by a problem of finding a Maximum Density Precedence-Closed Subfamily, where the density is defined as the ratio of the number of items the family covers to its size. We provide $\mathcal{O}^*(\sqrt{m})$-approximation polynomial-time algorithms for all aforementioned problems. The picture is complemented by a number of hardness reductions that provide $\mathcal{O}(m^{1/12-ε})$-inapproximability results for the decision tree and covering problems. Besides giving a complete set of results for general precedence constraints, we also provide polylogarithmic approximation guarantees for two most typically studied and applicable graph types, outforests and inforests. By providing corresponding hardness results, we show most of these results to be tight.

Many algorithms spend an internal resource before returning a decision and are evaluated only by the quality of that terminal output. We formalize such procedures as terminal computation-allocation problems: costly computations produce observations, update beliefs about a latent environment, and matter only through terminal decision loss. Bellman equations characterize optimal allocation under fixed budgets, priced computation, and exact certification. We then relate value of computation (VOC) to information. Mutual information equals myopic VOC under log loss, whereas under simple regret VOC is a knowledge-gradient quantity; moreover, information gain can rank computations arbitrarily poorly, although it gives a one-sided upper bound on VOC. Bandit pulls, tree simulations, and node expansions illustrate the same model under different computation topologies. Finally, under an explicit frontier-resolution and heuristic-error model, maximizing approximate VOC recovers weighted A*, with A* and greedy best-first search as limiting cases. The theory identifies a shared decision problem without asserting that one acquisition rule is universally optimal.

In many decision-making scenarios, acquiring information incurs different costs. We consider the problem of constructing a deterministic evaluation strategy that minimizes the expected cost of evaluating a propositional formula under variable costs and a probability distribution over truth assignments. We present a branch-and-bound algorithm with variable-selection heuristics, pruning, and caching. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first practical exact algorithm for this level of generality. Experiments on random instances demonstrate scalability and quantify the efficiency-quality trade-off of a greedy beam-search variant. We additionally evaluate a structured heart-disease diagnosis instance. Finally, we prove that the problem is $\#P$-hard and contained in $\mathrm{PSPACE}$.