Benchmarking Time Series Generation Methods for Privacy-Preserving Forecasting
Authors: Luis Amorim, Vitor Cerqueira, Moises Santos, Paulo J. Azevedo, Carlos Soares
Abstract
Time series forecasting in privacy-sensitive domains often requires training models on released data rather than original observations. Synthetic time series generation has been developed primarily for data augmentation, where generated series supplement the original training set. How well these methods perform when fully replacing the original data - and how much privacy risk the released series carry - remains underexplored. We address this gap through a benchmark evaluating synthetic generation methods and noise-based anonymization baselines under a Train on Synthetic, Test on Real (TSTR) protocol. We jointly assess forecasting performance and distance-based empirical privacy risk across seven datasets, characterizing the trade-off between these objectives. We also introduce Grasynda-P, a privacy-motivated extension of the graph-based generator Grasynda, incorporating matrix ensembling and kernel density estimation. Our results show that: (1) no generation method fully substitutes for original training data; (2) noise-based anonymization yields the strongest privacy but the worst forecasting performance; (3) simple transformation-based generators outperform deep generative models for forecasting in this setting; and (4) Grasynda-P lies on the Pareto frontier, achieving competitive forecasting with stronger privacy separation than other generators. This benchmark establishes a reference point for evaluating and developing new privacy-aware synthetic time series generation methods.
Synthetic data has transformed language model training, yet its role in time series forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a large-scale empirical study: nine experiment groups, 4,218 runs systematically evaluating synthetic time series augmentation across five architectures, four synthetic signals and seven datasets. The effect is sharply architecture-conditional: channel-mixing models (TimesNet, iTransformer) benefit in the majority of trials, while channel-independent models (DLinear, PatchTST) are consistently degraded. In selected low-resource settings the gains are striking: TimesNet trained on only 10% of Weather data with synthetic augmentation surpasses the full-data baseline (4 of 16 sparsity-dataset combinations). Averaged across all architectures, augmentation hurts in 67% of trials. We further find that only the Seasonal-Trend generator reliably helps across the tested benchmarks, and that hard curriculum switching is actively harmful (+24% MSE degradation). These results provide concrete, actionable guidelines on how to use synthetic data: use synthetic augmentation with channel-mixing architectures, use gradual annealing schedules, and treat low-resource augmentation as architecture- and dataset-dependent. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/hugoiscracked/synthetic-ts/tree/main}
Hugo Cazaux, Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Hlynur Stefánsson
Synthetic sequential tabular data are increasingly used for privacy-preserving data sharing and research, yet conventional tabular metrics often overlook temporal structure. Existing single-table and relational evaluation protocols largely collapse records into static distributions, leaving key temporal properties insufficiently evaluated. We introduce Seq2Synth, a unified benchmark for assessing these properties. Its taxonomy characterizes temporal and schema properties to determine applicable evaluations, covering timestamp, cross-sectional, longitudinal, and structural fidelity, alongside trajectory-aware utility and privacy. Across seven core datasets from a 13-dataset benchmark and eight generators, models with near-perfect static fidelity still violate basic temporal constraints, producing duplicate timestamps, irregular intervals, and incomplete observation grids. Moreover, static and temporal-aware rankings diverge substantially, showing that temporal fidelity must be evaluated directly rather than inferred from static or relational scores. Project page and online appendices are available at: https://seq2synth.github.io/.
Generative models have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series analysis tasks, like synthesis, forecasting, imputation, etc. However, offering limited coverage for generative models, existing time series libraries are mainly engineered for discriminative models, with standardized workflows for specific tasks, such as optimizing Mean Squared Errors for time series forecasting. This rigid structure is fundamentally incompatible with the distinct and often complex paradigms of generative models (e.g., adversarial training, diffusion processes), which learn the underlying data distribution rather than a direct input-output mapping. To this end, we proposed GenTS, a comprehensive and extensible benchmark library designed for systematic assessment on generative time series models. GenTS features a unified data preprocessing pipeline, a collection of versatile models, and panoramic evaluation metrics. Its modular design also enables the researchers to flexibly customize beyond our built-in datasets and models. Based on GenTS, we conducted benchmarking experiments under diverse tasks, accordingly offering suggestions for model selection and identifying potential directions for future research. Our codes are open-source at https://github.com/WillWang1113/GenTS. The official tutorials and document are available at https://willwang1113.github.io/GenTS/.