Interpretable Causal Discovery via Causal-Effect Constraints
Authors: Cixuan Zhang, Guy Van den Broeck, Benjie Wang
Organizations: Computer Science Dept., Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA · Computer Science Dept., University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
Abstract
Causal discovery aims to uncover the underlying causal relationships given data generated from a system. The goal, however, is not merely to predict causal edges given data, but also to be able to interpret and explain either observed or hypothesized phenomena, such as a particularly large causal effect. We consider this task of conditional causal discovery and cast it as a Bayesian inference problem, in which we target the posterior over causal graphs and parameters conditional on an event such as a causal-effect constraint. Unfortunately, this poses a computational challenge: existing approaches to Bayesian causal discovery struggle when the event has small posterior mass. To address this, we adapt rare-event estimation techniques to perform inference the joint graph-parameter space. Our method gradually drives a particle population toward the constrained region while maintaining samples that approximate the conditional posterior. Empirical evaluation on synthetic graphs validates the accuracy of our approach at small and large scales, and we show in a case study on the Sachs protein dataset how our method can be used to aid scientific exploration by providing pathway-level summaries.
Expert background knowledge is often available in practical applications of causal discovery. Such constraints on the true causal graph can help causal discovery in terms of identifiability of causal effects and accuracy of the learned structure, but also in reducing the space of candidate causal graphs. As causal discovery can become computationally expensive for large number of variables, it is crucial to utilize background knowledge effectively during the causal discovery process. However, most current methods only use background knowledge in a postprocessing step after causal discovery to refine the learned graph. In this work, we develop a framework for utilizing background knowledge during the causal discovery process, focusing especially on scalable causal discovery methods that recover only a subset of the whole graph. We implement our framework for multiple algorithms and empirically show that utilizing background knowledge can both reduce computational requirements and increase the quality of the learned structures.
Mátyás Schubert, Theofanis Aslanidis, Tom Claassen +1
Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the need to recover directed structure and latent confounding without interventions. We propose FoundCause, an amortized causal discovery model trained entirely on synthetic data that maps datasets directly to causal graphs in a single forward pass. By learning from large collections of simulated structural causal models, FoundCause captures transferable statistical patterns that generalize beyond individual datasets. The architecture incorporates several key inductive biases for causal discovery. It uses a permutation-invariant transformer encoder with alternating attention over samples and variables to jointly model cross-variable dependence and per-variable distributions. Pairwise statistical features derived from classical asymmetry measures are injected through statistics-conditioned attention, guiding the model toward known causal signals. A factorized decoder separates edge existence from direction, while a triangular refinement module enables reasoning over higher-order causal motifs such as chains and colliders. In addition, a dedicated confounder module based on learnable latent tokens explicitly models hidden common causes, and the model explicitly handles missing data via its masked input representation. To our knowledge, FoundCause is the first amortized causal discovery approach to explicitly model latent confounding. FoundCause outperforms 11 classical non-amortized methods (e.g., PC, GES, NOTEARS-style optimization) and 4 amortized causal discovery methods on 15 real-world datasets, achieving +9.6% improvement in F1, +1.2% in AUROC, and an 18.9% reduction in structural Hamming distance relative to the strongest non-amortized methods, while performing inference in a single forward pass.
Patrick Blöbaum, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
Learning causal graphs from interventional data is a challenging problem with broad applications. In molecular biology, for example, a central goal is to uncover gene regulatory networks from large-scale perturbation data. An ideal algorithm for this task should scale to thousands of nodes, incorporate interventions even when their targets are unknown, quantify uncertainty, and provide identifiability guarantees. However, existing approaches---e.g. approaches using score-based optimization or approximate Bayesian inference---often fail to meet all of these criteria. To address these limitations, we develop Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs (ABCDEFG). Our method guarantees exact acyclicity, scales to graphs with thousands of nodes, and naturally handles interventions even when their targets are unknown. Additionally, ABCDEFG estimates a posterior distribution whose maximum a posteriori estimate provably identifies the true causal graph up to an equivalence class. On simulated datasets, ABCDEFG achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, producing a well-calibrated posterior distribution while outperforming previous score-based and approximate Bayesian methods. Applied to large-scale single-cell perturbation data, ABCDEFG identifies both established and novel gene targets of growth factors.