Labels Are Not Endpoints: Treatment Leakage and Construct Validity in MCP Agent Security Evaluation

Safety properties assessed separately for Model Context Protocol (MCP) tool use and Agent2Agent (A2A) delegation need not describe behavior when one agent uses both. We measure one such behavior in a single controlled MCP-to-A2A configuration: a testbed drives a real-model host across a local MCP and a local A2A leg into an ordered event trace scored by exact deterministic rules (no LLM judge), one restricted decision per trial. In a pre-specified, frozen three-arm design, each of 10 record scenarios appears with a CONFIDENTIAL header, with no header, and with PUBLIC - OK TO SHARE; the six substantive record values are byte-identical across arms, and the outcome is verbatim occurrence of any of them in the outbound message. Four models x 3 arms x 4 repeats give 480 trials; the scenario is the unit of generalization, and we report the 10 scenario-level values (mean, median, sign counts), with no p-values or intervals. The confidential-minus-unlabeled contrast is inconclusive and floor-limited in every model (both arms at or near zero), so it does not show that confidential labels lack a protective effect. Adding PUBLIC - OK TO SHARE is descriptively associated with higher verbatim egress relative to the unlabeled baseline, with strong model dependence: strong and consistent for Claude Sonnet 5 (public-minus-unlabeled mean +0.800, all 10 scenarios; mostly an association with whether Claude relays at all), moderate but floor-limited for one GPT-5.6 tier, small (median 0) for another, and a complete floor for the third. This is an association in one configuration, not a causal or general effect. Code, byte-pinned traces, and the offline analysis pipeline are released as a public artifact.

Autonomous security agents operate as staged pipelines, such as classifying network traffic and then attributing attacks to a specific technique. Split conformal prediction gives each stage finite-sample coverage, but deployment requires a trajectory-level guarantee across the full chain. These guarantees do not compose automatically when stages are independently trained and calibrated. Bonferroni allocation is distribution-free but conservative under correlated errors. We show that a natural pairwise-correlation extension to three or more stages is invalid because it gives a lower rather than an upper bound, and derive a valid spanning-tree alternative. We distinguish whether stages are dependent from whether an audit sample is large enough to certify that dependence, and give matching upper and information-theoretic lower sample-complexity bounds. We also show that coarse-to-fine label selection can create near-perfect measured correlation without learned dependence. On a two-stage intrusion-detection pipeline across 6 open LLMs and 2 datasets, removing this artifact reduces measured correlation from near 1 to 0-0.78. A direct audit of trajectory failure becomes 13.7% tighter than Bonferroni once the audit reaches the required sample size, but is worse when undersized. A modular certificate using per-stage certificates and a pairwise overlap bound yields a positive average gain of 0.6%, quantifying the cost of lacking joint access. Same-model, cross-model, and permuted-pairing tests show that residual dependence reflects shared sample difficulty, not shared model representations. Average trajectory coverage across 12 configurations is 92.7% +/- 2.4% at alpha = 0.10. Under cross-dataset deployment, single-step miscoverage reaches 100% even when accuracy remains 78%, showing that distribution shift destroys calibrated confidence before raw accuracy.

Agents using the Model Context Protocol (MCP) rely on semantic matching to select tools from third-party servers, exposing a semantic supply-chain risk through attacker-controlled metadata and outputs. We introduce A2M (Attraction-to-Manipulation), a two-stage black-box framework for hijacking MCP agents. The Attraction phase optimizes tool metadata to increase invocation probability; the Manipulation phase uses execution traces to refine adversarial tool returns that steer agents toward attacker-desired outcomes. On LiveMCPBench, direct attacks optimized and evaluated on GLM-4.6 achieve a macro-average malicious tool invocation rate of 93.6% across four scenarios, increase weighted token costs to 32.4$\times$ the benign baseline under Cognitive Denial of Service, and attain a mean attack success rate of 74.4% across Information Exfiltration, Environment Integrity Compromise, and Reasoning Derailment. Transfer to four other models without re-optimization yields corresponding macro-averages of 63.6%, 2.7$\times$, and 24.5%. These findings motivate stronger tool vetting and runtime isolation in MCP ecosystems. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Lilaizhen/A2M.