Jointly Predicting Courses and Grades Using a Transformer-Based Model
Authors: Paul Savala
Organizations: Mathematics, St. Edward’s University, 3001 S Congress Ave, Austin, 78704, TX, USA. · S Congress Ave
Abstract
Existing predictive models in learning analytics often treat student academic history as a simple sequence, overlooking the concurrent nature of courses taken within a semester. This simplification can lead to inaccurate performance predictions, particularly for students with heavy or challenging course loads. This paper introduces a TRansformer for Academic Course-grade Estimation (TRACE) that addresses this limitation by jointly predicting both the set of courses a student will take and their corresponding grades for an upcoming semester. Our approach encodes courses on a per-semester basis to capture the effects of course concurrency and utilizes a novel loss function combining course-set prediction with grade prediction. We demonstrate that predicting courses taken in addition to the grades in those courses leads to significant improvements in prediction quality. Trained on ten years of institutional data, our joint prediction model reduces mean absolute error by nearly 50% compared to an identical architecture that predicts grades alone. The model also outperforms traditional LSTM-based sequential models, as well as graph neural network-based approaches, and offers natural ways to incorporate student attribute data. This work demonstrates the utility of modern neural architectures for creating interpretable models that can be adapted to new institutions via retraining and recalibration, as well as the importance of key techniques, such as predicting courses taken during training. We discuss how this model could be incorporated into early detection systems at institutions of higher education.
We present RAGEAR (Retrieval-Augmented Graph-Enhanced Academic Recommender), a neurosymbolic recommender system for academic course recommendation. RAGEAR combines dense retrieval over full lecture transcripts with a symbolic Knowledge Graph modelling courses, lessons, transcript chunks, credits, study plans, and curricular information. The Knowledge Graph supports symbolic filtering and contextualisation based on structured constraints, such as credits, academic disciplines, study plans, and prerequisites. Unlike metadata-based approaches, it exploits fine-grained instructional content by retrieving transcript chunks semantically aligned with a student's query. The main contribution is a graph-aware aggregation function that propagates chunk-level evidence to course-level recommendations. The score combines three factors: the share of retrieved similarity associated with a course, the rank-based strength of its relevant chunks, and the distribution of evidence across lessons. We evaluate RAGEAR on 152 student-like queries through a human evaluation sample and a large-scale LLM-based relevance assessment. Results show that lecture transcripts improve over metadata-only retrieval, and that RAGEAR further improves ranking quality over a transcript-based normalized SumP baseline, especially for top-ranked recommendations.
Francesco Granata, Lorenzo Lamazzi, Misael Mongiovì +2
Early detection of at-risk students and timely academic intervention pose major challenges in advanced mathematics education, where complex conceptual hierarchies and nonlinear learning trajectories often hold back students' academic performance. This study adopts multimodal data analytics to build a dynamic framework for learning behavior prediction and academic early warning. It constructs a hierarchical knowledge graph ontology, realizes adaptive edge weighting according to problem difficulty and student performance, and combines heterogeneous graph attention with temporal sequence modeling to capture students' evolving knowledge states. Empirical tests on semester-long multimodal datasets prove that this method can accurately identify high-risk students and effectively track error propagation. Targeted interventions greatly improve students' knowledge mastery and reduce academic risks. The results verify that integrating knowledge graph analytics with multimodal temporal modeling can deliver more efficient and personalized learning support for advanced mathematics education.
Knowledge Tracing (KT) is important for personalized education but traditionally suffers from two key limitations: a reliance on shallow ID-based representations that neglect semantic depth and a restriction to single-granularity mastery estimation that overlooks hierarchical knowledge dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose MOSAIC (Multi-granularity Online Semantic AI for Collaborative Knowledge), a novel framework that orchestrates LLM-driven semantic alignment with sequential modeling. Unlike methods that use LLMs solely as predictors, MOSAIC leverages a frozen LLM to generate dynamic, context-aware embeddings and hierarchical prediction prompts, explicitly capturing collaborative signals and peer interactions. Furthermore, we introduce a cross-granularity consistency objective that jointly regularizes mastery estimation across concept, topic-cluster, and global proficiency levels. Extensive experiments on ASSISTments, EdNet, and a newly collected large-scale MOOC dataset demonstrate that MOSAIC establishes new state-of-the-art results. Specifically, our method achieves AUC improvements of up to 3.4% and Accuracy gains of up to 2.5 % across all benchmarks. Notably, MOSAIC exhibits superior robustness in collaboration-rich environments and long-sequence scenarios (AUC 0.862 on MOOC), offering both high predictive precision and semantically grounded interpretability.