No Universal Signal Predicts Sample-Level LLM Regression under Version Updates

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic expressions are related to confidence by applying the regression method. Specifically, we predict confidence of those linguistic expressions in the reasoning parts of LLMs as the dependent variables and analyze the relationship between a specific $n$-gram and confidence. Across multiple models and QA benchmarks, we show that LLMs remain overconfident when reasoning is involved and attribute this behavior to specific linguistic information. Interestingly, several of the extracted expressions coincide with cue phrases intentionally inserted on test-time scaling to improve reasoning performance. Through our test on causality and verification that the extracted linguistic information truly affects confidence, we reveal that confidence calibration is possible by simply suppressing those overconfident expressions without drops in performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as automated evaluators that assign numeric scores to model outputs, a paradigm known as LLM-as-a-Judge. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods typically rely on binary rewards (e.g., 0-1 accuracy), thereby ignoring the ordinal structure inherent in regression tasks; for instance, they fail to recognize that predicting 4 is significantly better than predicting 1 when the ground truth is 5. Conversely, existing regression-aware approaches are often confined to Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), limiting their ability to explore optimal reasoning paths. To bridge this gap, we propose REAL (REgression-Aware Reinforcement Learning), a principled RL framework designed to optimize regression rewards, and also proven to be optimal for correlation metrics. A key technical challenge is that the regression objective is explicitly policy-dependent, thus invalidating standard policy gradient methods. To address this, we employ the generalized policy gradient estimator, which naturally decomposes optimization into two complementary components: (1) exploration over Chain-of-Thought (CoT) trajectory, and (2) regression-aware prediction refinement of the final score. Extensive experiments across model scales (8B to 32B) demonstrate that REAL consistently outperforms both regression-aware SFT baselines and standard RL methods, exhibiting significantly better generalization on out-of-domain benchmarks. On Qwen3-32B specifically, we achieve gains of +8.40 Pearson and +7.20 Spearman correlation over the SFT baseline, and +18.30/+11.20 over the base model. These findings highlight the critical value of integrating regression objectives into RL exploration for accurate LLM evaluation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.