Confidence Estimation

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42 papers9 papers in the last four weeks, up 80% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Vehicle-State-Aware Confidence Estimation for Direct Wind Sensing on a Multirotor
Oct 19, 2026Sri Arjun Senthil Kumar, April Zi Qian Chan, Chen-Hua YeowConfidence Estimation Adaptive Sensing
TrustAgent-RFF: Agentic Diagnostic Planning for Reliable RF Fingerprinting under Domain Shift
Oct 18, 2026Chuan Liu, Tianya Zhao, Xuyu WangRF Fingerprint Identification Distribution Shift Robustness
Knight Foundation School of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA
How Many, but How Sure? Class Competition as a Confidence Proxy in Multi-Class Density-Based Counting
Oct 16, 2026Villanelle O'Reilly, Georgios Leontidis, Marc HanheideCrowd Counting Confidence Estimation
Lincoln Centre for Autonomous Systems, University of Lincoln, UK · Applied Vision and Artificial Intelligence Lab, University of Lincoln, UK · UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
Are You Sure Your LLM Is Sure? Repairing and Auditing Confidence
Oct 15, 2026Arijit Dey, Bhartendu Kumar, Ramya Hebbalaguppe +1Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
MBZUAI · TCS Research Labs, India · IIT Delhi
Proxy Confidence: Auditing Black-Box LLM Agents with a Surrogate's Log-Probabilities
Oct 2, 2026Yikai Zhao, Saurabh Pandey, Pradeep Kumar MisraLLM Agent Reliability LLM Auditing
Amazon
Beyond Answer Confidence: A Controlled Audit of Self-Knowledge in a Black-Box Decision Model
Oct 1, 2026Sharath M Shankaranarayana, Davor Runje, Jan JanninkProbability Calibration Black-Box Model Auditing
Probability is Not Enough: Exploring and Counting Divergent Tokens for Reasoning Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
Sep 29, 2026Feiyang Li, Shengjing Liu, Qi Zhan +7Uncertainty Quantification Confidence Estimation in Language Models
College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University · Tsinghua University · Behavioral and Spatial AI Lab, Peking University & Tongji University
Beyond Verbalized Confidence: Calibrating Reasoners with Differentiable Readouts
Sep 28, 2026Chenxiao Fan, Chongming Gao, Gangyi Zhang +8Confidence Estimation in Language Models RL for Language Model Reasoning
University of Science and Technology of China · Qwen Business Unit of Alibaba · National University of Singapore
Laya as a Typed Probabilistic Assessor: An Independent Reproduction and a Preregistered Study of Calibration and Selective Escalation
Sep 27, 2026Gowthamkumar NandakishoreLLM Evaluation Selective Prediction
Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models
Sep 21, 2026Kevin David Hayes, Arka Pal, Haosong Zhang +2Language Model Error Detection Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Department of Computer Science, University of Maryland · Ritual AI · Fudan University +1
Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents
Sep 15, 2026Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li +3Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation
University of Cambridge 1 Solve & Estimate · Google DeepMind
When Confidence Signals Disagree: Local and Global Confidence in Autoregressive Language Models
Sep 15, 2026Julio C. Amador Diaz LopezLLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
SiftyML, LTD London, United Kingdom
ProbPlug: A Plugin Uncertainty Network for Reliable Confidence in LLM Binary Classification
Sep 9, 2026Jianzong Wang, Chuhang Liu, Botao Zhao +6Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen, China · Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Shenzhen, China · Hubei University of Technology, Hubei, China
Confident at the moment of action: belief miscalibration in LLM play under hidden information
Aug 25, 2026Bhushan Kashinath JoshiConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
POOL: Propagated Uncertainty Over Lookalikes
Aug 24, 2026Rounak Sharma, Ananya B. Sai, Soumyabrata PalConfidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Adobe Research, India
Claim-Level Confidence Calibration for Reliable Decision Making with Large Language Models
Aug 23, 2026Toghrul Abbasli, Kentaroh Toyoda, Yuan Wang +1Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing, 100084, P. R. China · Vulcan Research, AIFT, Singapore · Keio Global Research Institute (KGRI), Japan +2
DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoning
Aug 21, 2026Haorui Xu, Yuzhou Zhu, Liyuan GaoConfidence Estimation in Language Models Confidence Estimation
School of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun, China · Leicester International Institute, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
$TCP_α$ : Margin-Controlled Confidence estimation for reliable Music Information Retrieval
Aug 20, 2026Parampreet Singh, Anushka Singh, Sumit Kumar +1Confidence Estimation Music Information Retrieval
Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, India
Improved Confidence Estimates for Black-Box Large Language Models
Aug 19, 2026Sokhna Diarra Mbacke, Mouloud Belbahri, Gabriel Loaiza-GanemConfidence Estimation in Language Models Confidence Estimation
Layer 6 AI · TD Insurance
From token probabilities to calibrated confidence: An empirical study of mathematical question answering
Aug 8, 2026Avery Ma, Lorne Schell, Vin Bhaskara +1LLM Answer Verification Confidence Estimation in Language Models
RBC Borealis
HiFi-LLP: High-Fidelity, Low-Cost Latency Predictors with Confidence for Robust HW-NAS
Jul 13, 2026Shambhavi Balamuthu Sampath, Behzad Shomali, Nael Fasfous +7Confidence Estimation Hardware-Aware NAS
Technical University of Munich · BMW Group · University of Bonn
Future Confidence Distillation in Large Language Models
Jul 8, 2026Sahil KaleConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, USA
Before Thinking, Learn to Decide: Proactive Routing for Efficient Visual Reasoning
Jun 29, 2026Yinan Zhou, Haokun Lin, Yichen Wu +7Efficient Multimodal Inference Adaptive Model Routing
Xi’an Jiaotong University · ARC Lab, Tencent IEG · City University of Hong Kong +3
Reported Confidence in LLMs Tracks Commitment More Than Correctness
Jun 28, 2026Dharshan KumaranLLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Interpretability
Google DeepMind
CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models
Jun 23, 2026Conor Finlay, Joshua Kurien, Saurabh Dash +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
1Cohere Labs
Calibrating Overconfidence Without Sacrificing Confidence: Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention for LLMs
Jun 2, 2026Ke Li, Chongzhe Zhang, Zifan Zeng +3LLM Reliability Causal Interventions in Language Models
Huawei Heisenberg Research Center · EPFL · TU Berlin +1
LC-Flow: Learning Local Continuous Optical Flow and Confidence from events
May 23, 2026Gunwoo Jeon, Chaesong Park, Jongwoo LimOptical Flow Event-Based Vision
IPAI, Seoul National University
Retrieval-Augmented Linguistic Calibration
May 19, 2026Yi-Fan Yeh, Linwei Tao, Minjing Dong +4Confidence Estimation in Language Models Faithfulness of Language Model Reasoning
School of Computer Science University of Sydney Sydney, Australia · City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong · Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, China +1
Post-hoc Selective Classification for Reliable Synthetic Image Detection
May 9, 2026Kaixiang Zheng, Jacob H. SeidmanUncertainty Quantification Distribution Shift
University of Waterloo · Reality Defender
Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization
May 7, 2026Marc Boubnovski Martell, Josefa Lia Stoisser, Kaspar Märtens +4LLM Uncertainty Estimation CoT Reasoning
1Novo Nordisk · University of Oxford

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Vehicle-State-Aware Confidence Estimation for Direct Wind Sensing on a Multirotor

Sri Arjun Senthil Kumar, April Zi Qian Chan, Chen-Hua Yeow

Confidence Estimation Adaptive Sensing Aerial Robotics

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Direct wind sensing from a multi-rotor UAV enables localized atmospheric measurements, but the reliability of the anemometer depends on vehicle motion. This work presents a vehicle-state-aware confidence method that uses horizontal and vertical vehicle speed to quantify the acquisition of each wind observation. The resulting confidence score is used to adapt measurement influence to a two-dimensional vector estimator. Experiments were conducted during horizontal translation, vertical motion, and held-out autonomous waypoint flight. The proposed two-feature formulation achieved an ROC-AUC of 0.995, with 98.84% of translation observations identified as unreliable. The confidence-aware adaptation reduced median estimator gain during translation from 0.207 to 0.064 while retaining median gain of 0.151 during hover. The results show that vehicle state provides useful proprioceptive context for regulating the influence of direct airborne wind observations.