Advanced modelling and data analytics in aviation

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into aviation safety decision-making represents a significant technological advancement, yet their standalone application poses critical risks due to inherent limitations such as factual inaccuracies, hallucination, and lack of verifiability. These challenges undermine the reliability required for safety-critical environments where errors can have catastrophic consequences. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel, end-to-end framework that synergistically combines LLMs and Knowledge Graphs (KGs) to enhance the trustworthiness of safety analytics. The framework introduces a dual-phase pipeline: it first employs LLMs to automate the construction and dynamic updating of an Aviation Safety Knowledge Graph (ASKG) from multimodal sources. It then leverages this curated KG within a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) architecture to ground, validate, and explain LLM-generated responses. The implemented system demonstrates improved accuracy and traceability over LLM-only approaches, effectively supporting complex querying and mitigating hallucination. Results confirm the framework's capability to deliver context-aware, verifiable safety insights, addressing the stringent reliability requirements of the aviation industry. Future work will focus on enhancing relationship extraction and integrating hybrid retrieval mechanisms.

Improving flight safety with flight data requires not only accurate detection of risk events, but more importantly, clear interpretation of their underlying causes at the level of pilot control behavior. Existing explainable AI techniques, such as feature importance maps, often require considerable domain knowledge to translate them into operationally meaningful explanations. Large Language Models (LLMs), which excel at language reasoning, bring a promising solution to this issue. However, applying LLMs in this domain presents key challenges such as modal inconsistency, limited classification ability, scarcity of task-specific data for fine-tuning, and lack of domain knowledge. To overcome these challenges, we propose FlightLLM, a prior-guided semantic LLM-based approach for interpretable flight safety analysis. Specifically, we first perform feature engineering to address modal inconsistency, combining statistical descriptors with physically meaningful flight indicators. This representation is further processed by a Semantic Discretization module, which converts abstract numerical patterns into qualitative descriptions that are more compatible with language reasoning. In addition, since LLMs are not inherently strong classifiers, CatBoost is incorporated as a statistical expert, and its prediction results are injected into the prompt as prior guidance. A contrastive few-shot learning strategy is further adopted to compensate for limited data. Finally, we design structured prompts to embed aviation-specific knowledge into the inference process. Using hard landing, a representative risk event with complex causal mechanisms, as an anchor point, we evaluate FlightLLM on a dataset of 704 real-world A320 flight samples. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves competitive classification performance while generating direct and reasonable explanations for event causes.

Aviation accident and incident investigations generate extensive unstructured textual information containing evidence relevant to the causes and contributing factors of safety occurrences. Automatically extracting such information is challenging because causal evidence may be distributed across long and complex investigation narratives. This study proposes a semantic causal-factor inference framework combining natural language processing with a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn the relationship between aviation investigation narratives and expert-reported probable causes. Investigation narratives and their corresponding probable causes are transformed into numerical representations, after which the encoder maps narrative representations to a probabilistic latent space. The decoder estimates representations of the corresponding probable causes and is trained using an objective that combines Kullback-Leibler divergence with cosine-similarity-based semantic reconstruction. The framework was evaluated using 20,919 finalized U.S. National Transportation Safety Board investigation reports from 2005 to 2020. On the held-out test set, the predicted and expert-reported probable-cause representations achieved a mean cosine similarity of 0.786 (SD = 0.120). The predicted representations also yielded interpretable terms associated with causal information in the reports. The results demonstrate the potential of probabilistic latent representation learning for AI-assisted extraction of causal information from aviation safety narratives while retaining expert investigation as the basis for formal causal determination.