cs.MAAug 15, 2026

Insurance as AI Risk Infrastructure: A Generative-Agent Simulation of AI Adoption

Authors: Yixuan Yuan, Dedai Wei, Chudong Qian, Jielin Feng, Ziyue Lin, Yuheng Zhao, He Cao, Erasmo Purificato, 

Organizations: University of Macau · Fudan University · Immunocan AI · European Commission · 

Abstract

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) tools has demonstrated immense potential to enhance societal well-being and operational efficiency. However, the inherent unreliability and uncertain operational consequences of modern AI systems, typified by large language models (LLMs), have created a significant barrier to enterprise adoption. Many enterprises remain hesitant to integrate these tools deeply into their workflows due to concerns about unpredictable losses and liability exposure. While existing technical safeguards primarily seek to reduce the likelihood or severity of AI-enabled workflow failures, they do not by themselves provide ex post financial protection when residual pecuniary tail losses materialize. In this paper, we introduce a socio-economic framework that complements these safeguards by transferring and absorbing the residual financial consequences of AI adoption through insurance. To evaluate this framework, we develop an LLM-driven agent-based social simulation (LABSS) system. We assess the behavioral validity of the simulation using established economic and sociological theories. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed insurance framework reduces firm-level financial exposure, thereby accelerating the aggregate adoption of AI tools and improving firm solvency and aggregate capital.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables16 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

Jun 3, 2026

Insurance of Agentic AI

Agentic artificial intelligence (AI) systems are transforming the risk landscape by extending beyond information generation to autonomous planning, tool invocation, decision execution, and persistent modification of digital and physical environments. These capabilities introduce novel exposures that do not fit neatly within traditional insurance categories such as cyber, professional liability, product liability, or directors and officers coverage. This paper examines the emerging insurance market for agentic AI and develops a framework for understanding its underwriting, pricing, reinsurance, and product-design implications. We characterize agentic AI as a continuum of autonomy and delegated authority, emphasizing the distinction between informational outputs and systems capable of independently generating insured events through external actions. We analyze major risk pathways, including hallucinations, prompt-injection attacks, autonomous decision errors, model drift, dependency failures, and cyber-physical harms, and evaluate how existing insurance products are adapting to address these exposures. The paper further proposes an actuarial framework based on exposure assessment, scenario analysis, dependency mapping, and accumulation-risk management, drawing parallels to the evolution of cyber insurance. Finally, we present a coordinated insurance architecture that integrates cyber, technology errors and omissions, product liability, performance-warranty, and affirmative AI-liability coverages through explicit allocation mechanisms and dedicated AI aggregates. The analysis suggests that the future of agentic-AI insurance lies not in a single monoline product but in a layered ecosystem of complementary coverages supported by improved governance, transparency, telemetry, and regulatory clarity.
Aug 24, 2026

Quantifying System-Level Harms from AI Adoption in Complex Sociotechnical Systems

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly integrated into complex sociotechnical systems, including Critical National Infrastructure (CNI), where harms emerge from interactions between technical, human, and organisational elements. Yet current AI evaluation remains model-centric, offering little insight into how observed behaviours might translate into system-level risk. We propose a framework that links structured hazard analysis, component-level testing, and probabilistic system modelling to bridge this gap. By providing a traceable pathway from model behaviour to system-level outcomes, the framework enables practitioners to answer the "so what?" of AI failures, quantify their systemic impact, and move toward evidence-based and anticipatory governance of AI in complex systems. Applied to the UK's Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system as an illustrative worked example, we derive AI-driven loss scenarios using Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and examine adversarial manipulation of LLM-based trading as one such loss scenario. Component-level experiments show that simple adversarial inputs induce measurable behavioural shifts where AI recommendations are followed. Under the component-to-system mapping used here for a financial contagion model, these shifts alter system resilience, increasing bank failures and lowering the threshold at which shocks lead to cascading disruption, particularly under widespread or monopolistic AI adoption.
Jun 15, 2026

When Agent Automation Becomes Profitable: Quantifying and Insuring Autonomous AI Risk through Trace-Economic Underwriting

AI agents can now take irreversible actions in operational systems, but agent-caused losses are still not clearly assigned, priced, or transferred. Providers often disclaim consequential damages, users are left with uncompensated losses, and default human review limits the efficiency gains of automation. We ask when autonomous AI deployment can become economically acceptable despite failure risk. Our answer is to quantify risk at the customer-task-trace episode level and transfer it through insurance. Automation is acceptable when its expected benefit exceeds the premium, control cost, and remaining risk. This requires a defined role with bounded permissions and comparable traces. We introduce trace-economic underwriting, which maps tool-use traces to customer exposure and claimable loss, then uses this representation for pricing, control, and risk transfer. It uses deterministic economic labels rather than an LLM judge. In our trace-to-loss testbed, trace-economic pricing reduces pricing MAE from 17.7Kto17.7K to 569 and removes regressive cross-subsidy. A 300-trace expert audit accepts 295 labels unchanged. On 1,000 real SWE-smith traces, trace-conditioned controls reduce CVaR95 by 72%. Theorem~1 gives a finite-sample scope condition. We release code, labels, and audit sheets.