TraceSQL: Traceable Answerability Estimation for Reference-Free Text-to-SQL Verification

Improving the reliability of large language models (LLMs) at inference time is a central challenge in structured reasoning tasks such as Text-to-SQL. Common test-time inference strategies, including Best-of-N sampling and Majority Voting, rely on heuristic signals such as execution success or output frequency, which provide limited semantic discrimination across candidate outputs. In this work, we study Outcome Reward Models (ORMs) as learned semantic scoring functions for test-time verification in Text-to-SQL. While ORMs have been previously explored for test-time scaling and alignment, their application to structured query generation remains underexplored. We introduce GradeSQL, a scalable framework for training task-specific ORMs via automated candidate generation and execution-based labeling, enabling verifier training without manual annotation. We integrate ORMs into a verification-driven Best-of-N pipeline and evaluate our approach on the BIRD and Spider benchmarks across multiple open-source LLM families. ORM-based selection consistently outperforms execution-based Best-of-N and Majority Voting, with gains of up to +4.33% on BIRD and +2.10% on Spider. We further show that ORMs scale effectively with larger candidate sets and yield stronger improvements on complex queries. Overall, our results demonstrate that ORM-based verification provides a simple, effective, and scalable alternative to heuristic test-time selection strategies for Text-to-SQL. Code datasets and models are publicly available.

Evaluating uncertainty in AI-generated SQL queries requires estimating whether a query is correct, where correct means it executes to the same result as a human-written reference. We study which signals predict correctness on hard multi-table text-to-SQL, using AUROC to measure how well each ranks correct queries above incorrect ones. On BIRD and Spider, black-box signals such as string, structural, and execution self-consistency, a schema-relevance score, and query executability all fall between about 0.61 and 0.68 AUROC, with string self-consistency strongest at 0.675; white-box log-probability is similar (0.67). The signals that move past this ceiling are verification-based: an LLM judge scores from 0.72 (GPT-4o-mini) to 0.78 (Claude). Judges from different providers make different errors, so a two-provider ensemble reaches 0.82 AUROC with a well-calibrated probability (expected calibration error 0.03) and supports useful abstention frontiers (for example, answering 27% of questions at 24% selective risk) where self-consistency offers no valid low-risk subset. The pattern holds across two benchmarks, two generators, and two judge providers. We also ask whether a verifier can be trained. Fine-tuned verifiers, both encoder and generative, reach about 0.77 to 0.79 AUROC in-distribution but fall to about 0.66 on unseen schemas; scaling to 7B, adding schema diversity, distilling a strong judge's rationales, and cross-benchmark training all fail to close that gap. Cross-schema transfer appears to track model scale and reasoning rather than fine-tuning. In practice, correctness uncertainty for text-to-SQL lives in reasoning-based signals: a fine-tuned verifier is a good in-domain tool, but a verifier that generalizes across schemas currently means a large frozen reasoning model.

Text-to-SQL systems often struggle with deep contextual understanding, particularly for complex queries with subtle requirements. We present PV-SQL, an agentic framework that addresses these failures through two complementary components: Probe and Verify. The Probe component iteratively generates probing queries to retrieve concrete records from the database, resolving ambiguities in value formats, column semantics, and inter-table relationships to build richer contextual understanding. The Verify component employs a rule-based method to extract verifiable conditions and construct an executable checklist, enabling iterative SQL refinement that effectively reduces missing constraints. Experiments on the BIRD benchmarks show that PV-SQL outperforms the best text-to-SQL baseline by 5% in execution accuracy and 20.8% in valid efficiency score while consuming fewer tokens.