Adaptive Policy Portfolios for Robust Markov Decision Processes

Sequential decision-making in real-world applications often involves uncertainty about the environment's model. Uncertain Markov decision processes (UMDPs) represent the possible environments as a set of MDPs with shared states and actions but potentially different transition probabilities and rewards. Optimizing a single policy across all possible MDPs may sacrifice performance, while preparing an individually optimized policy for every MDP may violate operational, regulatory, or interpretability constraints on the number of policies that can be prepared and deployed. We consider settings in which model uncertainty is resolved shortly before execution, allowing the most suitable policy to be selected from a limited set prepared in advance. We introduce $k$-adaptable policy synthesis, which optimizes such a set of $k$ policies under a minimax-regret objective. We prove that the problem is NP-hard and develop KAPS, an exact nested branch-and-bound algorithm with problem-specific bounds and heuristics. KAPS jointly optimizes which MDPs share a policy and the policies themselves. Experiments across various UMDP benchmarks show that the largest reduction in regret consistently occurs when increasing from one to two policies. In the single-policy setting, KAPS is competitive with existing methods in solution quality and proves optimality substantially more often.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) generalize classical MDPs by allowing uncertainty in transition probabilities and optimizing against their worst-case realization. We consider $(s,a)$-rectangular RMDPs with linearly defined uncertainty sets and study parity objectives, which are a canonical representation of $ω$-regular objectives. An uncertainty set is linearly defined if it is described by linear inequalities over the transition distribution together with auxiliary variables, which capture the standard $L_1$ and $L_\infty$ balls as well as general polytopic uncertainty sets. The quantitative value is the supremum, over all agent policies, of the satisfaction probability guaranteed against the adversarial environment. Previous work studied the qualitative analysis, namely the almost-sure (resp. positive) problem that asks whether a single agent policy guarantees satisfaction with probability one (resp. positive probability) against every environment policy. In this work, we solve the exact quantitative problem. Our contributions are threefold. First, we show that both the agent and the environment admit pure memoryless optimal policies. Second, we give a polynomial-time algorithm for quantitative parity on linearly defined robust Markov chains and use it as a subroutine in a policy-iteration algorithm for RMDPs. The algorithm combines quantitative one-step improvements with qualitative almost-sure improvements. Finally, we report experiments comparing our approach with the explicit reduction to stochastic games.

We study linear programming (LP) representations and strongly polynomial algorithms for robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) with rational polyhedral state-action rectangular uncertainty in rewards and transitions. By encoding a finite sequence of robust policy-iteration steps, we construct a single LP whose optimal solutions recover the robust optimal value and all optimal stationary randomized policies. At fixed discount, the LP has polynomial dimension and encoding length and can be constructed in strongly polynomial time. We also develop a general complexity analysis of robust policy iteration that combines the cost of minimizing over uncertainty sets with the number of iterations needed to evaluate a policy. For a fixed discount factor, we use this analysis to improve the known complexity bounds for $\ell_1$ and $\ell_\infty$ RMDPs and establish new strongly polynomial bounds for general interval, weighted $\ell_1$, and Wasserstein RMDPs, as well as turn-based stochastic games with these uncertainty sets.