Decision-Making under Uncertainty

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. AI Safety Considerations for Agents With Limited Time to Act

    Oct 7, 2026Leo Zeitler, Jack Richings, Victoria NocklesAI Agent SafetyAI Safety

    The Alan Turing Institute 96 Euston Road London, NW1 2DB, United Kingdom

  2. Training Language Models To Be Coherent Decision-Makers

    Oct 6, 2026Khurram Yamin, Xavier Fernandes, Paul Koch +2LLM Decision-MakingDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Carnegie Mellon University · Microsoft

  3. Compact set-valued deep ensembling in multi-class classification

    Oct 4, 2026Kim-Dung Tran, Dang-Man Nguyen, Vu-Linh Nguyen +3Deep EnsemblesMulticlass Classification

    UMR CNRS 7253, Heudiasyc, Universit´e de Technologie de Compi`egne, Compi`egne, France. · School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Nomi, Japan.

  4. A Simple Doxastic Deontic Logic for Norm-Guided Decision Making

    Sep 30, 2026Thorsten Engesser, Agata CiabattoniLogical ReasoningConstrained Optimization

    TU Wien

  5. Should I stay or should I show? Learning to selectively disclose information

    Sep 30, 2026Carlotta Giacchetta, Alessando Bogani, Cesare Barbera +4Value of InformationHuman-AI Decision Making

    University of Trento, Trento, Italy · University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy · ETH AI Center & ETH, Zürich, Switzerland +1

  6. Distinguish or Homogenize: Last-Chance Policy Identification and Risk-Budgeted Recovery under Irreversible Resource Depletion

    Sep 29, 2026Yibo Guo, Xiaodan WangRobot Failure RecoveryModel-Based Planning

    School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence, Zhengzhou University, Henan Zhengzhou 450001, China

  7. The Delegation Blind Spot: Auditing Product Decisions from Agent Choices

    Sep 22, 2026Shivam GuptaAI Agent AuditingPartial Identification

    Independent Research

  8. Learning Submanifolds for Subsequent Inference on Random Dot Product Graphs, Part 1: Theory

    Sep 16, 2026Michael W. Trosset, Carey E. PriebeSemi-Supervised LearningDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Department of Statistics, Indiana University. · Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Johns Hopkins University.

  9. A Geometric Theory of Decision Boundaries in Structured Markov Decision Processes

    Sep 16, 2026Fredy PokouMarkov Decision ProcessesDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    MRE, INOCS · Inria, CNRS, Univ. of Lille, Centrale Lille, UMR 9189 - CRIStAL, F-59000 Lille, France

  10. Do Frontier Models Seek Safety Evidence Before Acting?

    Sep 15, 2026Omer TafveezLLM Safety BenchmarksLLM Safety Evaluation

    University of Michigan

  11. Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress

    Sep 14, 2026Gaurav TewariDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Omega Venture Partners

  12. When Should a World Model Move? Loss-Conditioned State Execution

    Sep 14, 2026Jintao Xu, Zhengyu Chen, Ben Zhang +2Selective PredictionProbabilistic Forecasting

    Supply Chain Tech Team Y, JD.com

  13. Robust Trust

    Sep 14, 2026Piotr Dworczak, Alex SmolinDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Toulouse School of Economics

  14. Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

    Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Uncertainty QuantificationGeospatial Foundation Models

    Vanderbilt University, United States · City University of New York, United States · Yale University, United States +4

  15. When Information is Worth the Risk: Behavioral Valuation for Hazardous Robotic Exploration

    Sep 11, 2026Alkesh K. Srivastava, Aamodh Suresh, Carlos Nieto-Granda +1Value of InformationInformative Path Planning

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, USA · U.S. DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, MD 20783, USA · Lobster Robotics, The Hague, South Holland, Netherlands

  16. Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

    Sep 10, 2026Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo SimeoneStochastic OptimizationChance-Constrained Optimization

    Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK

  17. A Mathematical Theory of Pragmatic Information

    Sep 10, 2026Kai Niu, Ping ZhangRate-Distortion TheoryValue of Information

    Key Laboratory of Universal Wireless Communications, Ministry of Education · State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China

  18. Adaptive Shared Control with Online Bounded-Rational Human Behavior Estimation

    Sep 9, 2026Henry Ascencio Trejo, Roel Pieters, Gokhan AlcanHuman-Robot CollaborationShared Autonomy

    Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland

  19. A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions

    Sep 9, 2026Benedikt HöltgenProbability CalibrationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam

  20. FinalityBench: An Effect-Level Benchmark for Agent Decisions Under Delayed and Conflicting Financial Finality

    Sep 7, 2026Abhishek SharmaAI Agent BenchmarksRuntime Enforcement for AI Agents

  21. Planning and Scheduling Business Processes under Control-Flow Uncertainty: Extended Version

    Sep 4, 2026Michel Kunkler, Stefanie Rinderle-MaStochastic OptimizationChance-Constrained Optimization

    Technical University of Munich, Germany TUM School of Computation, Information, and Technology

  22. UTP-Bench: Uncertainty-aware Travel Planning Benchmark

    Sep 2, 2026Etcharla Revanth Rao, Priyanshu Karmakar, Shubhojit Mallick +3LLM PlanningDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    IIT Bhubaneswar, India · Microsoft, India

  23. Scalable Rao-Blackwellized Online Planning for High-Dimensional POMDPs

    Sep 1, 2026Jiho Lee, Nisar Ahmed, Kyle Hollins Wray +1Belief-Space PlanningPartially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Ann And H.J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences Department, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA · Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

  24. On the Structural Limits of Machine Learning Decision Systems: An Information-Theoretic, Interaction-Based, and Stochastic-Dynamical Perspective

    Aug 13, 2026Nestor R. Barraza, Gabriel PenaStochastic Linear Dynamical SystemsStatistical Learning Theory

    Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. · Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería.

  25. DACRI: Decision-Aware Causal Intervention Ranking for Critical Supply Chains

    Aug 11, 2026Shiqi Huang, Jiani He, Dingyan Shang +4Learning to RankSupply Chain Management

    Independent Researcher

  26. Decision-Aware Approximation of Belief Functions for Evidential Combinatorial Optimization

    Aug 11, 2026Sohaib AfifiDempster-Shafer TheoryCombinatorial Optimization

    Univ. Artois, UR 3926, Laboratoire de Génie Informatique et d’Automatique de l’Artois (LGI2A), Béthune, France

  27. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing-Modality LearningGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Business Technology and Entrepreneurship Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia

  28. Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Minimization Using Samples: Algorithms, Convergence Rates, and Applications

    Aug 7, 2026Sumedh Gupte, Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. BhatStochastic Optimization ConvergencePortfolio Optimization

    TCS Research, IIIT-H Research Park, Hyderabad, 500032, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India

  29. Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

    Aug 6, 2026Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi +3Computational Cognitive ModelingValue of Information

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan · Laboratoire Conception de Produits et Innovation (LCPI), Arts et M´etiers ParisTech, 151 Boulevard de l’Hˆopital, 75013 Paris, France

  30. Risk-Aware Decision Policies for Agents Under Noisy Perception

    Aug 5, 2026David SzczecinaArtificial LifeAgent-Based Modeling

    University of Waterloo, Canada