MorphoGP: A Nonparametric Framework for Predicting Equilibrium Beach Profiles Under Tidal Influence

Wave parameters in the nearshore are crucial for coastal engineering, shoreline protection, marine hazard assessment, and coastal management for climate resilience. Traditional monitoring systems like buoys and radar platforms offer accurate monitoring but can have high installation and maintenance expenses and limited spatial coverage. Passive ocean monitoring using video has been achieved by leveraging deep learning, however, many methods are not physically interpretable, feasible, and validated for oceanography. In thiswork, a Physics-Guided Deep Spatiotemporal Learning Framework for direct estimation of nearshore wave peak periods from passive coastal video stream is proposed. The framework combines automated temporal-variance based region-of-interest detection, multi-stage Sim-to-Real transfer learning, and physics-informed regularization to enhance the predictive accuracy and physical consistency. A variety of spatiotemporal architectures were assessed, such as transformer-based and recurrent-convolutional ones, alongside synthetic pretraining,silver-label adaptation, and expert fine-tuning. The results show that transformer-based architectures outperformed in terms of the accuracy of the instantaneous prediction, while lightweight recurrent-convolutional architectures achieved higher temporal stability and operational oceanographic skill. Ablation studies also demonstrated the benefits of physics-guided regularization in terms of trend-following consistency, and physically implausible predictions. Explainability auditing also helped to focus attention in hydrodynamically active surf-zone regions and showed good agreement with the physically derived wave propagation behavior. In general, the proposed framework shows the promise of physics-guided video-based deep learning systems for long-term coastal wave monitoring that are cost-efficient and operationally feasible.

Sea state prediction is essential for operational maritime applications and coupled earth system modeling, yet current spectral wave models remain computationally prohibitive for many use cases, including online coupling to climate simulations and making probabilistic (ensemble-based) predictions. While deep learning has recently demonstrated strong performance in weather forecasting, existing AI-based wave models are predominantly deterministic and largely limited to bulk variables such as significant wave height, leaving probabilistic sea state estimation largely unexplored. In this work, we propose a diffusion-based generative model for global sea state estimation that conditions on a relatively long history (5 days) of global wind forcing. This generative model directly samples the complex conditional distribution of sea state without autoregressive time-stepping. Unlike prior approaches, our framework naturally extends beyond bulk variables to estimate partition-related variables and derived quantities, such as Stokes drift and mean square slope. Trained on a 30-year global WAVEWATCH-III hindcast, the model achieves substantial computational acceleration compared with numerical spectral models while delivering skillful predictions and a calibrated ensemble spread for the bulk variables. Our results suggest that diffusion-based sea state sampling offers a promising path toward probabilistic wave forecasting and efficient coupling of sea state information into broader earth system models.

High deployment cost, poor spatial coverage and susceptibility to storm conditions are all challenges faced by traditional in-situ methods. This paper presents a video-based and high performance computing (HPC) enabled deep learning framework for joint sensor free estimation of five coastal wave parameters, namely significant wave height (Hs), maximum wave height (Hmax), peak period (Tp), zero upcrossing period (Tz) and wave direction (theta) from monocular coastal video. The proposed architecture comprises of a V-JEPA (self supervised) ViT Small backbone for robust spatiotemporal feature extraction in visually challenging scenarios, a dual-stream SlowFast temporal encoder for broad bandwidth representation of wave motion in both hydrodynamic breaking and swell regimes, an optical flow stream based on Farneback optical flow algorithm for adding saliency information to the structure with emphasis on hydrodynamically active wavelength bands of waves, and a multi-task regression layer with dispersion constraints (Airy wave dispersion lambda_p = 0.1). The model was trained on an NVIDIA DGX A100 cluster and was early stopped at epoch 31 and achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.451, 0.578, 0.643, 0.680 and 0.832 for Hs, Hmax, Tp, Tz and wave direction respectively, with generalization ability to geographically diverse held out test data sites. While operating in a data-limited regime (6 annotated training scenes), the framework demonstrates statistically significant temporal correlations (PCC of 0.451 to 0.832), confirming proof of concept feasibility; R2 values (max 0.246) indicate that variance capture will improve with larger annotated datasets.