Europe's Climate Ambition Under Scrutiny: Evidence from Deep Learning Emission Projections

Global greenhouse gas emissions estimates are essential for monitoring and mitigation planning. Existing emissions datasets provide critical foundations for understanding emissions patterns across sectors, geographies, and time scales. Through a structured assessment of recent emissions datasets, we identified opportunities to further increase the actionability of emissions data through more comprehensive source-level coverage, finer spatial and temporal resolution, and more frequent updates. Building on existing resources to address these opportunities, we present the Climate TRACE framework and resulting dataset, which is available on an open-access platform (climatetrace.org). The Climate TRACE framework synthesizes existing emissions data, prioritizing accuracy, coverage, and resolution, and fills remaining gaps using sector-specific estimation approaches. The resulting dataset is the first to provide global emissions estimates for individual sources (e.g., individual power plants) for most anthropogenic emitting sectors. The dataset spans January 1, 2021, to the present, with a two-month reporting lag and monthly updates. This dataset and open-access platform provides access to detailed emissions estimates for most subnational governments worldwide. By combining source-level spatial detail, monthly updates, and broad sectoral coverage, the dataset is designed to support analyses relevant to emissions monitoring and mitigation planning.

Open datasets and benchmarks for entity-level carbon-emission prediction remain fragmented across access, scale, granularity, and evaluation. We introduce GHGbench, an open dataset and benchmark for company- and building-level greenhouse-gas prediction. The company track contains 32,000+ company-year records from 12,000+ firms with Scope 1+2 and Scope 3 disclosures and financial/sectoral signals; the building track harmonises 491,591 building-year records from 13 open sources into a single schema across 26 metropolitan areas (10 U.S., 15 Australian, 1 Singaporean), with climate covariates and multimodal remote-sensing embeddings. GHGbench defines canonical splits with in-distribution and cross-region/city transfer as primary tasks and temporal hold-out plus short-horizon forecasting as supplementary appendix evidence; headline baselines span gradient-boosted trees, a tabular foundation model, MLP, FT-Transformer, and multimodal fusion, with an LLM panel as auxiliary, all evaluated under multi-seed paired-bootstrap tests. Three benchmark-level findings emerge: (i) building emissions are structurally harder than company emissions; (ii) the in-distribution to out-of-distribution gap dwarfs any within-model gap across both the company track and the building track, and a tabular foundation model is, to our knowledge, the first baseline to open a paired-bootstrap-significant gap over tuned trees on a multi-city building-emissions task; (iii) multimodal remote-sensing embeddings help precisely where tabular generalisation breaks. GHGbench also exposes catastrophic city transfer and the sector-factor lookup ceiling as systematic failure modes. Code and reconstruction recipes are available at GHGbench.

The rapid expansion of AI globally has led to the proliferation of energy-intensive hyperscale data centres (DCs), making them as a structurally challenging component in power system planning and operation. Using a spatially explicit optimisation model of Europe across 21 AI growth scenarios, we systematically quantify additional demand, capacity requirements, emissions, and operational impacts of DCs. Results indicate that AI could drive 73-723 TWh of extra demand by 2050, risking cumulative emissions overshoots of 67-181 MtCO2 between 2030 and 2050. Our analysis indicates that after 2030, the geography of AI infrastructure will be shaped more by firm power and system flexibility than by the mere abundance of clean energy. In moderate scenarios, AI requires an additional of 200 hours of firm generation, which increases LCOE by 35 EUR/MWh in key hubs. We show that even under the pessimistic scenarios, existing infrastructure would require 70 GW additional capacity, while under managed growth pathways, this expansion could reach 226 GW. We further find DCs workload dynamics strongly shape energy dispatch, system flexibility, and emissions, while improved efficiency significantly reduces capacity needs, and system peaks. While our findings suggest that net-zero targets for 2050 may be achieved, critical emission risks may appear in the intermediate years, and the EU may compromise its carbon-neutral goals unless policies adapt to this accelerating digital transformation.