Beyond the Transcript: Detecting Covert Co ordination in Latent Multi-Agent Communication

Increasingly autonomous agentic AI systems pose novel multi-agent risks, such as secret collusion via covert communication channels. The natural defence to these collusion attempts is to monitor plain-text communication, but the efficacy of monitors has been called into doubt by increasingly sophisticated model steganography; indeed, some theoretical schemes have been proposed that are information-theoretically or computationally indistinguishable from good-faith plain-text communication. In this paper, we demonstrate that the complexity of these schemes is no longer a safety barrier, as agentic coding models can already produce undetectable stegosystems when given realistic tool usage, such as code execution or accessing research papers through web searches. Agents also adapt when key ingredients are missing, for example, by adding model-sampling components or implementing related keyed coding schemes. We then frame tacit steganographic coordination between agents as a Schelling-point problem and introduce coordination metrics for estimating when two agents are likely to select compatible schemes without explicit prior agreement. Our results suggest a shift in the threat model for covert communication between AI agents, where the main barrier is no longer whether frontier agents can understand and implement sophisticated stegosystems, but coordination: whether independently acting agents can converge on compatible schemes, keys, and parameters. We find substantial convergence on broad scheme families but limited strict one-shot coordination, suggesting that shared artefacts, repeated interaction, and tool-mediated search are the settings where covert communication risks are most acute. Overall, our findings provide empirical grounding for the recent strategic confinement hypothesis, which assumes that capable agents can construct covert channels that survive monitoring.

LLM agents are increasingly deployed in multi-agent systems, where they can collude while keeping their actions benign. Output monitors designed to detect such collusions can be fooled by obfuscation and steganography, motivating the use of probes trained on internal activations. However, these probes are usually evaluated on agents that do not know they are being watched. We study how activation-based detection changes when agents are explicitly informed that their internal activations are being monitored, and when they additionally receive feedback from the monitor. We keep the models, probes, and thresholds fixed and change only what the agents are told: nothing (baseline), that an activation monitor is present (aware), or that a monitor is present together with the previous round's score (feedback). We test two games, a four-agent blackjack game and a two-agent Simmons prisoners game, using Qwen3-32B-AWQ and GPT-OSS-20B in homogeneous and mixed pairings. Telling agents about the monitor does not hide them. The best probes stay accurate in all three conditions, and the agents keep colluding.

Non-verbalised or secret collusion may impose a ceiling on transcript-level monitoring in multi-agent deployments. Internal model activations are known to provide an additional monitoring surface for single-agent phenomena such as deception, but detecting collusion within an unknown subgroup is ultimately a joint inference task over multiple agents. This paper derives collusion detection statistics based on the composite hypothesis testing literature and introduces HELIOS, a multi-agent detection framework for collusion. Using per-agent activation probes as sensors, we then evaluate these principled statistics alongside heuristics on NARCBench, a novel benchmark for evaluating multi-agent collusion detection under environment distribution shift. Across four open-weight models, both our group-level statistics and heuristics transfer zero-shot to NARCBenchs holdout environments. Notably, the best method on every model reaches 0.99 to 1.00 AUROC when transferred from committee deliberations to a steganographic collusion task that unprimed transcript monitors fail to separate. We find empirically that no single statistic or heuristic dominates across tasks, consistent with our analysis that there is no known universally most powerful test for this setting. We then evaluate detector transfer to third-party environments with emergent, rather than instructed, collusion. In one such environment, only 2 of 229 collusive episodes verbalise the coordination in the transcript. We find evidence of partial transfer from NARCBench to these environments, indicating that probes fitted to instructed collusion may not fully capture emergent collusion signals. Overall, we establish multi-agent interpretability as a complementary monitoring technique, while highlighting the need to evaluate detector performance on both emergent and instructed collusion risks.