Tracking the Trend in How Speech Synthesizers Deceive People

Audio deepfakes have improved rapidly recently, yet their effect on human trust in real speech remains unstudied. We present the largest listening study on audio deepfake perception to date, collecting 35,532 judgments from 1,768 participants across 138 text-to-speech and voice conversion systems. Our central finding is a skepticism shift: compared to a 2021 baseline, human accuracy on fake samples barely changed (72.9% to 71.2%), but accuracy on real samples dropped from 72.7% to 64.1%. Participants are not worse at detecting synthesis artifacts; rather, they increasingly distrust authentic speech. Samples generated by commercial and autoregressive language model systems proved hardest to detect (61.3 - 65.9%), while those from traditional seq2seq and flow-matching models remain easier to spot (75.4 - 76.8%). An ML detector that served as a reference point maintained over 94.5% accuracy across all conditions. Our results suggest that the primary threat posed by modern deepfakes may not be mere deception, but the erosion of trust in genuine audio.

Provenance watermarking is increasingly treated as a safeguard for synthetic speech, whether built directly into speech-generation models such as Chatterbox, provided through dedicated techniques such as AudioSeal, or deployed by commercial platforms such as ElevenLabs. We identify a previously uncharacterized liability: when synthetic speech is watermarked and human speech is not, detectors trained alongside latch onto the watermark as a spurious "watermark => fake" shortcut. This single feature yields three coupled failures: generalization degradation (model performance deteriorates on unseen data), strip-to-evade (a watermarked fake escapes once unwatermarked), and mark-to-frame (watermarking a real voice flags it as fake). In a controlled white-box experiment, a watermark-trained detector shows all three (for example, mark-to-frame lifts Equal Error Rate from 16% to 75%). In a black-box test of a commercial API, we show that adding a watermark to real speech disguises it as fake. However, this shortcut is fixable: retraining with the watermark on both classes decorrelates it and restores clean behavior. We release experiment data as a paired clean-versus-watermarked corpus (WASP).

Automatic deepfake detection has received considerable research attention, yet the socio-technical environment in which humans actually encounter synthetic speech remains poorly understood. We investigate voice deepfake detection as a perceptual and contextual process, presenting a localization task in which 47 participants marked suspected synthetic segments across authentic, fully synthetic, and partially synthetic utterances under three manipulated trust cues: instructional framing, affective priming, and provenance labeling. Participants provided quality ratings on mechanicalness, expressiveness, intelligibility, clarity, calmness, and confidence of evaluation. Utterance class was the primary determinant of detection accuracy and perceptual quality; trust cues produced no main effects but motivated detection behavior. Fully synthetic speech was detected at below-chance levels. Quality ratings tracked utterance type, indicating implicit discrimination where overt detection failed.