When Text and Numbers Disagree: Evidence Arbitration in Large Language Models
Authors: Mattia Carletti, Edward Phillips, Fredrik K. Gustafsson, Patitapaban Palo, Lei Clifton, Danielle Belgrave, Xiao Gu, David A. Clifton
Organizations: Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK · Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK · GlaxoSmithKline, London, UK · Oxford Suzhou Centre for Advanced Research, University of Oxford, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in settings where textual summaries, numerical observations, and external tool outputs may provide conflicting evidence. We study how LLMs arbitrate between such sources when they support opposing decisions. To do so, we introduce a controlled synthetic benchmark in which latent risk trajectories generate both numerical time series and natural language summaries, allowing us to construct conflicts where exactly one evidence source is aligned with the ground-truth label. This design lets us independently manipulate modality, temporal recency, source reliability, and evidence provenance. Across open-weight instruction-tuned models, we find that arbitration behaviour is systematic rather than random: models exhibit distinct text-versus-number preferences, follow temporal recency more consistently than explicit reliability cues, and can over-rely on external forecasts even when they conflict with direct contextual evidence. These results suggest that current LLMs often rely on heuristic arbitration strategies when integrating heterogeneous evidence, highlighting a failure mode for tool-augmented decision systems.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Evidence arbitration under conflict. A numerical time series and a textual summary, drawn from different windows of a shared latent risk trajectory, support conflicting predictions at the target time T+k : high for the older numerical source, low for the newer textual source. The task requires the model to decide which source to prioritize when answering the binary-choice prompt.
Figure 2: Benchmark conflict settings for evidence arbitration. Each panel illustrates one of the four controlled conflict settings used in our evaluation. In every setting, two evidence sources support opposing decisions and exactly one source is aligned with the ground-truth label. (A) Baseline modality priors: both sources cover the same window [0,T] and merely disagree. (B) Temporal recency: sources cover different time windows; the more recent source is always aligned with truth. (C) Reliability: one source is marked as unreliable (a corruption note in text, missing values in numbers); the reliable source is aligned with truth. (D) Tool forecast: an external forecasting tool predicts a value at T+k that contradicts the observed context; context is aligned with truth.
Figure 3: Benchmark construction pipeline. A single example is traced through the three stages used to generate model prompts. (A) Time series generation: a sampled label, slope, and margin fix the target value yT+k=0.5±margin , from which the observed trajectory is generated by integrating backwards with additive noise. (B) Text generation: trajectory-level features are discretized and rendered as a natural language summary using templates and synonym sampling. (C) Prompt generation: the textual summary and numerical series are combined with task framing, evidence-order controls, and answer choices to produce the final binary-choice prompt.
Figure 4: Arbitration accuracy under conflicting evidence. Panels show classification accuracy across the four conflict settings and evidence-order conditions: (A–B) baseline modality priors, (C–D) temporal recency, (E–F) reliability, and (G–H) tool forecast conflicts. In each setting, exactly one evidence source is aligned with the ground-truth label (GT). Shaded bars show unimodal reference accuracy using only the ground-truth-aligned source, while solid bars show accuracy when both conflicting sources are provided. Results are averaged over three random seeds.
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure A1: Representative examples of generated time series. Generated trajectories with observable length T=16 and forecast horizon k=1 .
Hyperparameter
Default Value
Answer choices order
“A” first
Answer choices-labels mapping
“A”= high
Sequence length
16
Forecast horizon
k=1
Frequency
1 minute
Domain
generic
Appendix
Table A1: Default hyperparameter configuration used in the main experiments unless otherwise specified.
Model
∣ΔAcc∣ numeric-only
∣ΔAcc∣ text-only
∣ΔAcc∣ conflict (numeric GT)
∣ΔAcc∣ conflict (text GT)
Domain Sensitivity
Qwen3-1.7B
0.06±0.01
0.01±0.01
0.13±0.07
0.14±0.06
Qwen3-4B
0.00±0.00
0.00±0.00
0.05±0.04
0.05±0.04
Qwen3-8B
0.00±0.00
0.00±0.00
0.05±0.07
0.05±0.07
Qwen3-14B
0.00±0.00
0.00±0.00
0.03±0.03
0.03±0.03
Gemma-2-9B-It
0.00±0.00
0.00±0.00
0.04±0.03
0.04±0.02
Appendix
Table A2: Absolute accuracy change ( ∣ΔAcc∣ ) under different sensitivity-analysis settings. Accuracy deltas are aggregated across sweep values, seeds, and (where applicable) evidence-order settings, and reported as mean ± standard deviation. Lower values indicate lower sensitivity to the swept parameter. GT: ground truth.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automatic judges for summarization and dialogue evaluation. Prior work has documented biases such as position, verbosity, and style preferences, but largely focuses on outcomes, leaving judge explanations underexplored. We instead ask whether LLM judges are cue-invariant, i.e., whether their rankings and explanations remain stable when non-evidential cues are perturbed while holding the underlying texts fixed. We introduce a suite of cue interventions (Blind, Truth, Flip, Placebo, Reveal-After) and tie-aware metrics that quantify outcome anchoring and rationale anchoring, including label-aligned rhetoric and explanation drift, alongside consistency and stereotype-intrusion checks. We design anchoring attacks using verbosity and confidence cues, and compare two mitigations: structured chain-of-thought prompting and PROOF-BEFORE-PREFERENCE (evidence lock, score, rank). Using a new dataset of 1,000 summaries from traditional extractive models and LLMs, we find substantial cue-anchored rationalization under label and placebo perturbations, while PROOF-BEFORE-PREFERENCE markedly improves cue invariance over baselines.
Riya Tapwal, Abhishek Kumar, Carsten Maple
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi · The Alan Turing Institute, London, U.K. · Warwick Manufacturing Group University of Warwick, U.K.
The use of large language models either as decision support systems, or in agentic workflows, is rapidly transforming the digital ecosystem. However, the understanding of LLM decision-making under uncertainty remains limited. We study LLM risky choices along two dimensions: (1) prospect representation (based on an explicit representation or outcome history) and (2) decision rationale (explanation). Our study, which involves 20 frontier and open LLMs, is complemented by a matched human subjects experiment, which provides one reference point, while an expected payoff maximizing rational agent model provides another. We find that LLMs cluster into two categories: reasoning models (RMs) and conversational models (CMs). RMs tend towards rational behavior, are insensitive to the order of prospects, gain/loss framing, and explanations, and behave similarly whether prospects are explicit or presented via a history of outcomes. CMs are significantly less rational, slightly more human-like, sensitive to prospect ordering, framing, and explanation, and exhibit a large description-history gap. Paired comparisons of open LLMs suggest that a key factor differentiating RMs and CMs is training for mathematical reasoning.
Large language models are increasingly used in decision-making tasks that require them to process information from a variety of sources, including both human experts and other algorithmic agents. How do LLMs weigh the information provided by these different sources? We consider the well-studied phenomenon of algorithm aversion, in which human decision-makers exhibit bias against predictions from algorithms. Drawing upon experimental paradigms from behavioural economics, we evaluate how eightdifferent LLMs delegate decision-making tasks when the delegatee is framed as a human expert or an algorithmic agent. To be inclusive of different evaluation formats, we conduct our study with two task presentations: stated preferences, modeled through direct queries about trust towards either agent, and revealed preferences, modeled through providing in-context examples of the performance of both agents. When prompted to rate the trustworthiness of human experts and algorithms across diverse tasks, LLMs give higher ratings to the human expert, which correlates with prior results from human respondents. However, when shown the performance of a human expert and an algorithm and asked to place an incentivized bet between the two, LLMs disproportionately choose the algorithm, even when it performs demonstrably worse. These discrepant results suggest that LLMs may encode inconsistent biases towards humans and algorithms, which need to be carefully considered when they are deployed in high-stakes scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss the sensitivity of LLMs to task presentation formats that should be broadly scrutinized in evaluation robustness for AI safety.