SeisMamba: Low-Latency Single-Station Seismic Magnitude Estimation for Spatially Distributed Earthquake Early Warning

Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncertainty in magnitude estimation of near class boundaries. These results indicate that the attention mechanisms in Transformers combined with adaptive classification effectively capture the temporal dynamics of seismic signals. The architectural advantage facilitates promising generalization to rare high-magnitude events, despite the inherent data scarcity characteristic of seismic catalogs. The adaptive accuracy provides a more realistic assessment of model performance, and the result suggests viability for real-time deployment.

Earthquake catalogs underpin studies such as fault structure, earthquake processes and seismic hazard, and their value depends on being both complete and reliable. Machine learning has improved individual tasks of earthquake monitoring, but processing stations independently discards the consistency of arrivals across the network, and running tasks in sequence fragments the information describing each earthquake. We present EQNet2, a geometry-aware multi-station Transformer that jointly predicts phase arrivals, first-motion polarities, source location and magnitude, and the association of arrivals into events. On a Northern California test dataset and on continuous waveforms from Ridgecrest and the San Francisco Bay Area, EQNet2 recovers more weak arrivals, produces fewer false detections, and associates more picks into located events. Its learned attention links information across stations along time--distance patterns consistent with seismic moveout. As seismic networks grow denser, exploiting multi-station coherence and event-centric prediction offers a path to more complete and reliable catalogs.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100,km, epicentral distances of 10--90$^\circ$, and magnitudes $3 \leq M_w \leq 7$. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves a median normalized cross correlation of 0.93 or higher. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.