RCMN: Understanding Misleadingness in Influential Public Discourse

In this (work in progress) paper, we present Bounded Pragmatic Listener (or BPL), a cognitively grounded Bayesian framework for modelling susceptibility to information disorder. BPL extends Rational Speech Act theory with three cognitively motivated bounds derived from the bounded rationality literature with a) a recursion depth bound (that emphasises working memory limits);b) a prior compression parameter (which is oriented at capturing information bottleneck); and c) an availability sample size (that operationalises importance sampling with saliency-weighted proposals). This allows us to test predictions about misinformation susceptibility, annotator disagreement, and the differential vulnerability to mis-, dis-, and mal-information as defined in the Information Disorder framework. We validate BPL on the LIAR and MultiFC benchmarks showcasing competitive veracity classification and experimental support for the depth-mismatch paradox.

This study investigates the ability of multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify and interpret misleading visualizations, and recognize these observations along with their underlying causes and potential intentionality. Our analysis leverages concepts from visualization rhetoric and a newly developed taxonomy of authorial intents as explanatory lenses. We formulated three research questions and addressed them experimentally using a dataset of 2,336 COVID-19-related tweets, half of which contain misleading visualizations, and supplemented it with real-world examples of perceptual, cognitive, and conceptual errors drawn from VisLies, the IEEE VIS community event dedicated to showcasing deceptive and misleading visualizations. To ensure broad coverage of the current LLM landscape, we evaluated 16 state-of-the-art models. Among them, 15 are open-weight models, spanning a wide range of model sizes, architectural families, and reasoning capabilities. The selection comprises small models, namely Nemotron-Nano-V2-VL (12B parameters), Mistral-Small-3.2 (24B), DeepSeek-VL2 (27B), Gemma3 (27B), and GTA1 (32B); medium-sized models, namely Qianfan-VL (70B), Molmo (72B), GLM-4.5V (108B), LLaVA-NeXT (110B), and Pixtral-Large (124B); and large models, namely Qwen3-VL (235B), InternVL3.5 (241B), Step3 (321B), Llama-4-Maverick (400B), and Kimi-K2.5 (1000B). In addition, we employed OpenAI GPT-5.4, a frontier proprietary model. To establish a human perspective on these tasks, we also conducted a user study with visualization experts to assess how people perceive rhetorical techniques and the authorial intentions behind the same misleading visualizations. This allows comparison between model and expert behavior, revealing similarities and differences that provide insights into where LLMs align with human judgment and where they diverge.

LLM deception is often evaluated through direct markers such as fabricated claims, explicit lies, or strategic concealment. However, many real-world misleading communications do not depend on false statements, rather, they arise from selective treatment of true material facts: omitting adverse evidence, softening unfavorable details, emphasizing favorable details, or replacing precise qualifications with vague language. Existing benchmarks largely miss this subtler and arguably more dangerous failure mode. We introduce JANUS, a benchmark for measuring goal-conditioned pragmatic distortion in fact-grounded LLM outputs. Each scenario in our benchmark provides a fixed pool of favorable and adverse facts and compares a neutral condition against a goal-directed condition, such as increasing adoption, enrollment, approval, or support, despite potential harm to directly affected individuals or groups. Because all outputs are constrained to use the same fact pool, JANUS isolates misleading net impressions from hallucination and fabrication. JANUS contains 160 scenarios across 8 domains, with each scenario paired with neutral and goal-conditioned prompts and annotated material facts. Extensive experiments across 12 LLMs reveal consistent goal-conditioned distortions, demonstrating that current models remain sensitive to incentive and framing objectives and lack robust safeguards against selectively misleading communication. We publicly release our corpus and code for future research.