Initialization Is Critical: Advancing Federated Short-Term Load Forecasting under Load Heterogeneity via Model Initialization
Authors: Jianing Chen, Vajiheh Farhadi, Yan Li, Thomas La Porta
Organizations: School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA 17837, USA
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) provides essential information for numerous applications in modern power systems. However, accurate STLF often relies on fine-grained smart-meter data from distributed users, raising increasing concerns about data privacy. Federated learning (FL) has therefore emerged as a promising privacy-preserving paradigm for STLF. Nevertheless, this paper reveals structured heterogeneity in clients' load data. Specifically, clients exhibit different responses to exogenous factors and distinct temporal load profiles, which can degrade forecasting performance in FL. To mitigate these issues, this paper studies the role of model initialization in federated STLF, and proposes two initialization strategies from global and local perspectives. For global model initialization, when auxiliary public load data are available, a pretrained initialization strategy is developed to initialize the global model before federated training, thereby reducing client drift during the training process. For local model initialization, we propose SLIAvg, a sequential local initialization strategy that promotes a more consistent training process by allowing participating clients to start from progressively adapted models within each communication round. Since the proposed strategies only modify the initialization process, they are compatible with most existing FL frameworks and privacy-enhancing techniques. Experiments on real smart-meter data with two representative forecasting architectures demonstrate that the proposed strategies effectively improve forecasting performance, as evidenced by reduced client drift, improved convergence behavior, and lower forecasting errors.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Overview of load heterogeneity analysis and the proposed initialization strategies.
Figure 2: Illustration of client drift in FedAvg compared with centralized optimization. Two clients perform three local update steps ( K=2 , E=3 ). Local updates (gray arrows) move toward client-specific optima w1∗ and w2∗ (blue and green squares). Under heterogeneous local objectives, the aggregated server trajectory (red arrows) may deviate from the centralized optimization trajectory and move toward an averaged local solution wserver(final) (black square), rather than the centralized optimum w∗ (gray square).
Figure 3: Illustration of the proposed SLIAvg strategy with randomized client ordering, sequential local initialization, and server-side aggregation.
Figure 4: Visualization of client heterogeneity in exogenous weather responses and temporal load-profile distributions. (a) Distributions of client-specific response coefficients to continuous and categorical weather factors. Temp., Dew pt., App. temp., Humid., Wind spd., Press., Vis., and Wind dir. denote temperature, dew point, apparent temperature, humidity, wind speed, pressure, visibility, and wind direction, respectively. PC day and PC night denote partly cloudy day and partly cloudy night. (b) Pairwise temporal heterogeneity matrix of client load profiles.
Pretraining
Transformer
LSTM
Epoch
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
No pretraining
0
0.1363
0.1993
0.0897
0.1599
Pretraining without FL training data
1
0.1034
0.1708
0.0856
0.1567
5
0.0928
0.1606
0.0839
0.1566
Table I: Effect of Pretraining Epochs on Test Loss ( K=15 )
Figure 5: The test loss of the Transformer-based models.
Figure 6: The test loss of the LSTM-based models.
Figure 7: Client drift of the Transformer model with and without pretraining.
Figure 8: Client drift of the LSTM model with and without pretraining.
House ID
FedAvg
SLI
SLIAvg
Centralized
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
MSE
MAE
1
0.1605
0.2652
0.1611
0.2548
0.1556
0.2641
0.1294
0.2592
2
0.0899
0.1477
0.0943
0.1639
0.0939
0.1646
0.0926
0.1578
3
0.0106
0.0676
0.0102
0.0692
0.0090
0.0609
0.0076
0.0558
4
0.0334
0.1282
0.0368
0.1452
0.0322
0.1248
0.0319
0.1227
5
0.2343
0.2952
0.1951
0.2666
0.1896
0.2716
0.1633
0.2642
Table II: House-Level and Overall Forecasting Performance of Different Training Strategies
FL Strategy
K = 15
K = 30
Transformer
LSTM
Transformer
LSTM
FedAvg
0.1363
0.0897
0.1016
0.0576
SLI
0.0908
0.0885
0.0749
0.0560
SLIAvg
0.0853
0.0764
0.0744
0.0537
Centralized
0.0749
0.0704
0.0573
0.0414
Table III: Test Loss Comparison of Different FL Strategies Under Different Numbers of Clients
Federated learning (FL) is a practical framework that can train models on distributed user data while guaranteeing data privacy; however, due to heterogeneity in which each user has a different data distribution, problems frequently arise where both global and personalization performance deteriorate simultaneously. This dissertation presents methodologies for building efficient personalized models by identifying which strategies are effective in the global training stage and by showing how to preserve global knowledge while securing user-specific performance during local adaptation. First, we show that as data heterogeneity increases, the collapse of feature vectors is a more fundamental bottleneck than classifier weights, and propose a method that directly mitigates the discrepancy in representation magnitude between local and global models. Second, we analyze that a training approach that strengthens local alignment can induce forgetting of global knowledge (e.g., categories not observed locally), and propose a method that achieves both local alignment and global knowledge preservation by combining feature distillation based on the global model's feature vectors. Third, in federated personalized reward model learning with preference heterogeneity, we empirically verify the conventional belief that "increasing the number of global models yields better initialization," and we show that when sufficient local fine-tuning is allowed, a single global initialization can instead provide stronger personalization performance. This study redefines the role of global initialization under data and preference heterogeneity and provides practical training strategies that simultaneously satisfy global knowledge preservation and personalization.
Seongyoon Kim
한국과학기술원 Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology 산업및시스템공학과
Federated learning (FL) is a communication-efficient distributed learning paradigm. However, client drift remains one of the most critical challenges, hindering the efficient training of a global model. In this study, we propose a novel latent information sharing scheme that directly mitigates data heterogeneity across clients. Our theoretical and empirical results show that sharing a small amount of hidden-layer activations significantly improves training efficiency while preserving convergence guarantees and data privacy. Furthermore, we compare our method with existing FL approaches designed to address client drift, including FedProx, SCAFFOLD, FedPVR, FedProto, and SplitFed, and demonstrate superior model accuracy under a fixed round budget without incurring excessive communication overhead. Overall, this work presents a promising new knowledge aggregation scheme and provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of activation sharing on federated optimization.
Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant attention in distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training across decentralized system while preserving data privacy. Although extensive research has addressed statistical data heterogeneity, FL still faces several challenges, including high communication and computation overheads and severe device heterogeneity, which require further investigation. Prior work has addressed these issues through sub-model training and partial parameter training. However, such methods often suffer from inconsistent parameter distributions across clients, inaccurate global loss estimation, and increased bias and variance. Guided by our empirical analysis, we propose FedPLT (Federated Learning with Partial Layer Training), an innovative and structured partial parameter training approach that exhibits training behavior similar to full model training while assigning client-specific portions of the model according to their communication and computational capabilities. In addition, we evaluate the performance of FedPLT when combined with optimal client sampling under communication constraints. We show that this integration improves FL performance by reducing sampling variance under the same communication budget. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that FedPLT achieves performance comparable to, or even surpassing, that of full-model training (i.e., FedAvg), while requiring significantly fewer trainable parameters per client. Moreover, FedPLT outperforms existing methods in highly heterogeneous environments, effectively adapts to client resource constraints, and reduces the number of straggling clients. In particular, FedPLT reduces the number of trainable parameters by 71%-82% while achieving performance on par with full-model training.
Ahmad Dabaja, Rachid El-Azouzi
Laboratoire Informatique d’Avignon (LIA), Avignon University, France