When Can Conditional Flow Matching Replace Pointwise Negative Log-Likelihood?
Organizations: Zhejiang University · Westlake University · Fudan University
Abstract
Flow matching enables likelihood-free training, yet alignment methods increasingly reuse conditional flow matching (CFM) losses as endpoint negative log-likelihoods (NLLs) and their old/new differences as log-likelihood ratios. We characterize when these substitutions are valid. For linear Gaussian paths, we exactly decompose endpoint NLL into entropy, a weighted CFM objective, an interior velocity--score residual, and a boundary residual. Thus CFM-only estimates and differences are exact only when the corresponding residuals cancel. At the off-policy population optimum, ordinary CFM is not generally a pointwise NLL estimator, whereas removes the interior residual; this positive result does not extend generally to training or on-policy alignment. On-policy log-ratios can remain biased even for identical endpoint laws or after surrogate optimization. Experiments across dimensions, distributions, and geometries support these conclusions and the mechanisms that make inexact ratios useful. More broadly, the decomposition provides a theoretical basis for adapting likelihood-based LLM methods to flow matching, while distinguishing exact substitutions from controlled surrogates.
Figures & tables
| Off-policy: fixed-target CFM | On-policy: CFM-ratio surrogate | |||
| Stage | Ordinary CFM | Score-calibrated CFM | CFM-only ratio | Score-calibrated ratio |
| During optimization | ✗ No identity guarantee. Away from the fixed-target CFM optimum, need not vanish. See Prop. 5.1 . | ✗ No identity guarantee. The score-calibrated weight does not remove the interior gap during optimization. See Prop. 5.1 . | ✔ ✗ Empirical controlled-update surrogate. Useful in the tested settings, but biased in general. See Prop. 6.1 . | ✔ ✗ Empirical controlled-update surrogate. Useful in the tested settings, but biased in general. See Prop. 6.2 . |
| After optimization | ✗ No pointwise identity. Ordinary CFM recovers the population-optimal velocity, but its pointwise objective is not likelihood-calibrated. See Prop. 5.2 . | ✔ Identity-level replacement. At the score-calibrated CFM optimum, interior gap with . See Prop. 5.2 . | ✗ No general guarantee. Optimizing CFM-only ratio does not enforce the relative calibration condition, i.e., . See Prop. 6.3 . | ✗ No general guarantee. Even score calibration is not enough unless the learned ratio satisfies the relative calibration condition. See Prop. 6.3 . |
Appendix figures & tables42 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Setting | CFM-only range | Smoothed-identity closure | Source entries |
| 1D GMM | – | – | Tab. 7 , all train-weight and estimate-weight combinations. |
| 2D GMM | – | – | Tab. 19 , GMM row, both estimate weights. |
| 2D banana | – | – | Tab. 19 , banana row, both estimate weights. |
| 2D two moons | – | – | Tab. 19 , two-moons row, both estimate weights. |
| GMM-4D | – | – | Tab. 31 , GMM-4D row, both estimate weights. |
| GMM-8D | – | – | Tab. 31 , GMM-8D row, both estimate weights. |
| Data Types | Quantity Types | Quantity Values | Sources |
| (a) 1D | / | Means over the estimate rows and over the estimate rows in Tab. 7 . | |
| (a) 2D GMM+banana | / | Means of the GMM and banana rows in Tab. 19 ; two moons is excluded because its boundary term is the intended caveat. | |
| (a) 32D GMM | / | GMM-32D row in Tab. 31 . | |
| (b) 1D | / | CFM-only ratio row in Tab. 9 . | |
| (b) 2D GMM | / | GMM ordinary-CFM row in Tab. 21 . | |
| (b) 32D GMM | / | GMM-32D ordinary-CFM row in Tab. 33 ; is source-relative, and the round-old MAE is . |
| \RaggedRight Panel / layer | \RaggedRight Plotted value | \RaggedRight Source entries |
| \RaggedRight 1D EMA sweep | \RaggedRight Success rates: EMA-0 ( ), EMA-0.5 ( ), EMA-1 ( ) | \RaggedRight EMA-decay row in Tab. 10 ; passing means final sampled reward at least . |
| \RaggedRight 2D EMA sweep | \RaggedRight Success rates: EMA-0 ( ), EMA-0.5 ( ), EMA-0.9 ( ), EMA-1 ( ) | \RaggedRight EMA-decay row in Tab. 22 , aggregated over GMM, banana, and two moons. |
| \RaggedRight High-D EMA sweep | \RaggedRight Success rates: EMA-0 ( ), EMA-0.5 ( ), EMA-0.9 ( ), EMA-1 ( ) | \RaggedRight S1 row in Tab. 34 , aggregated over GMM-4D, 8D, 16D, and 32D. |
| \RaggedRight Raw-image EMA sweep | \RaggedRight Success rates: EMA-0 ( ), EMA-0.5 ( ), EMA-0.9 ( ), EMA-1 ( ) | \RaggedRight S1 row in Tab. 38 , aggregated over MNIST and CIFAR-10. |
| SETTING | TRAINING | FORMAL AUDIT | HIGH AUDIT |
| Protocol | |||
| Target / seed | Three-component 1D GMM / 13 | ||
| Path / | Linear Gaussian / 0.10 | ||
| Train weights | – | – | |
| Readout weights | – | ||
| Checkpoint scope | 10 fractional | All saved | Final only |
| SETTING | ORDINARY | SCORE-CALIBRATED |
| Protocol | ||
| Target / seed | Three-component 1D GMM / 13 | |
| Source checkpoint | Fixed-target , final | |
| CFM-ratio weight | ||
| Audit readout weights | ||
| On-policy Optimization | ||
| Train weight | Estimate weight | Density | ||
| 0.803 | 0.234 | 0.036 | ||
| 0.224 | 0.199 | 0.036 | ||
| 0.797 | 0.234 | 0.035 | ||
| 0.222 | 0.198 | 0.035 |
| Train Variants | Estimates | ||||
| CFM-only ratio ( ) | 1.928 | 0.117 | 0.418 | 2.210 | |
| CFM-only ratio ( ) | 2.015 | 0.112 | 0.251 | 2.232 | |
| Score-calibrated ratio ( ) | 2.020 | 0.118 | 0.370 | 2.270 | |
| Score-calibrated ratio ( ) | 2.045 | 0.117 | 0.303 | 2.276 |
| Variant | Final reward | Best reward | Source MAE | Round-old MAE |
| CFM-only ratio | 0.995 | 1.000 | 7.900 | 0.468 |
| Score-calibrated ratio | 0.998 | 1.000 | 65.269 | 0.102 |
| Sweep | Settings | Mechanism conclusion | |||
| S1: EMA distance | 0.994; 2/2 | 0.761; 0/2 | 0.275; 0/2 | EMA perform best; EMA fail. | |
| S2: ratio weight | 0.994; 2/2 | 0.769; 0/2 | 0.269; 0/2 | Different train weights cannot be helpful in EMA . | |
| S3: ratio clip | 0.995; 7/8 | 0.998; 5/8 | 0.976; 2/8 | The ratio clipping rescues some successful EMA experiments, but the effect is non-monotonic. | |
| S4: advantage clip | 0.996; 8/8 | 0.850; 0/8 | 0.290; 0/8 | Advantage clipping can perform well only with EMA . | |
| S5: KL beta | 0.996; 8/8 | 0.800; 0/8 | 0.282; 0/8 | Source-KL regularization can perform well only with EMA . | |
| S6: EMA-KL beta | 0.995; 8/8 | 0.881; 0/8 | 0.282; 0/8 | EMA-KL regularization can perform well only with EMA . |
| EMA decay | Ordinary reward | Score-cal. reward |
| 0 | 0.994 | 0.949 |
| 0.5 | 0.377 | 0.761 |
| 1 | 0.238 | 0.275 |
| EMA decay | Ordinary reward | Score-cal. reward |
| 0 | 0.994 | 0.994 |
| 0.5 | 0.352 | 0.769 |
| 1 | 0.263 | 0.269 |
| EMA | EMA | EMA | ||||
| Ratio clip | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score |
| 0.994 | 0.949 | 0.400 | 0.776 | 0.247 | 0.282 | |
| 0.05 | 0.989 | 0.980 | 0.951 | 0.976 | 0.284 | 0.283 |
| 0.2 | 0.995 | 0.971 | 0.986 | 0.998 | 0.393 | 0.416 |
| None | 0.769 | 0.979 | 0.733 | 0.984 | 0.976 | 0.914 |
| EMA | EMA | EMA | ||||
| Adv. clip | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score |
| 0.5 | 0.990 | 0.993 | 0.380 | 0.788 | 0.252 | 0.268 |
| 1 | 0.987 | 0.995 | 0.364 | 0.850 | 0.263 | 0.260 |
| 2 | 0.992 | 0.994 | 0.390 | 0.843 | 0.243 | 0.262 |
| 5 | 0.988 | 0.996 | 0.360 | 0.744 | 0.290 | 0.267 |
| EMA | EMA | EMA | ||||
| Source-KL | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score |
| 0 | 0.994 | 0.949 | 0.400 | 0.776 | 0.247 | 0.282 |
| 0.991 | 0.996 | 0.364 | 0.632 | 0.262 | 0.250 | |
| 0.985 | 0.995 | 0.386 | 0.800 | 0.235 | 0.252 | |
| 0.965 | 0.986 | 0.357 | 0.535 | 0.250 | 0.252 | |
| EMA | EMA | EMA | ||||
| EMA-KL | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score | Ord. | Score |
| 0 | 0.994 | 0.949 | 0.400 | 0.776 | 0.247 | 0.282 |
| 0.991 | 0.995 | 0.355 | 0.777 | 0.262 | 0.250 | |
| 0.989 | 0.995 | 0.392 | 0.881 | 0.235 | 0.252 | |
| 0.980 | 0.987 | 0.349 | 0.716 | 0.250 | 0.252 | |
| SETTING | TRAINING | FORMAL AUDIT | HIGH AUDIT |
| Protocol | |||
| Targets | GMM, banana, and two moons | ||
| Seeds | 13, 17, and 23 | ||
| Path / | Linear Gaussian / 0.10 | ||
| Train weights | – | – | |
| Readout weights | – | ||
| SETTING | ORDINARY | SCORE-CALIBRATED |
| Protocol | ||
| Targets / seed | GMM, banana, and two moons / 13 | |
| Source checkpoint | Corresponding fixed-target , final | |
| CFM-ratio weight | ||
| Audit readout weights | ||
| On-policy Optimization | ||
| Dataset | Density | ||||
| Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | ||
| GMM | 0.076 | 1.001 | 0.411 | 0.397 | 0.387 |
| Banana | 0.043 | 1.587 | 0.342 | 0.323 | 0.312 |
| Two moons | 0.326 | 0.580 | 0.895 | 0.311 | 0.302 |
| Dataset | Train weight | ||||
| Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | ||
| GMM | 2.069 | 2.057 | 0.250 | 0.231 | |
| GMM | 49.054 | 206.343 | 0.841 | 0.836 | |
| Banana | 1.374 | 1.415 | 0.214 | 0.230 | |
| Banana | 2.331 | 2.396 | 0.378 | 0.389 | |
| Two moons | 3.132 | 3.183 | 0.362 | 0.349 | |
| Dataset | Ordinary reward | Score-calibrated reward | Ordinary ratio MAE | Score-calibrated ratio MAE | ||
| Source | Round-old | Source | Round-old | |||
| GMM | 0.981 | 0.713 | 1.570 | 0.046 | 138.296 | 1.209 |
| Banana | 0.967 | 0.986 | 2.068 | 0.059 | 2.444 | 0.082 |
| Two moons | 0.979 | 0.934 | 12.197 | 0.666 | 3.015 | 0.054 |
| Sweep | Settings | Mechanism conclusion | ||||
| S1: EMA distance | 0.984; 4/6 | 0.388; 0/6 | 0.327; 0/6 | 0.289; 0/6 | Only EMA reaches the reward gate 0.9; small EMA decay rate is the primary condition. | |
| S2: ratio weight | 0.984; 5/6 | 0.381; 0/6 | 0.326; 0/6 | 0.294; 0/6 | Train weight choice changes one EMA-0 outcome but does not repair experiments with large EMA decay rate. | |
| S3: ratio clip | 0.999; 21/24 | 0.998; 17/24 | 0.998; 11/24 | 0.985; 4/24 | This is the only sweep with EMA successes, but the effect is non-monotonic and EMA-1 successes use no clip. | |
| S4: advantage clip | 0.985; 20/24 | 0.410; 0/24 | 0.328; 0/24 | 0.295; 0/24 | Advantage clipping succeeds only with EMA and cannot rescue experiments with large EMA decay rate. | |
| S5: source KL | 0.993; 17/24 | 0.468; 0/24 | 0.346; 0/24 | 0.302; 0/24 | Positive source KL penalties avoid the three non-finite failures, but do not rescue experiments with large EMA decay rate. | |
| S6: EMA KL | 0.985; 19/24 | 0.408; 0/24 | 0.328; 0/24 | 0.297; 0/24 | EMA-KL regularization also succeeds only with EMA in this sweep. |
| Dataset | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0.982 / 0.804 | 0.229 / 0.292 | 0.187 / 0.211 | 0.161 / 0.170 |
| Banana | 0.970 / 0.984 | 0.350 / 0.359 | 0.287 / 0.300 | 0.265 / 0.271 |
| Two moons | 0.983 / 0.899 | 0.349 / 0.388 | 0.305 / 0.327 | 0.277 / 0.289 |
| Dataset | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0.982 / 0.779 | 0.238 / 0.288 | 0.182 / 0.195 | 0.168 / 0.164 |
| Banana | 0.970 / 0.984 | 0.348 / 0.366 | 0.285 / 0.299 | 0.267 / 0.262 |
| Two moons | 0.983 / 0.941 | 0.371 / 0.381 | 0.307 / 0.326 | 0.283 / 0.294 |
| Dataset | Ratio clip | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0.982 / 0.804 | 0.224 / 0.284 | 0.197 / 0.202 | 0.168 / 0.165 | |
| 0.05 | 0.995 / 0.945 | 0.985 / 0.976 | 0.339 / 0.434 | 0.187 / 0.194 | |
| 0.2 | 0.995 / 0.948 | 0.997 / 0.976 | 0.882 / 0.929 | 0.254 / 0.267 | |
| None | 0.995 / 0.997 | 0.997 / 0.998 | 0.995 / 0.972 | 0.712 / 0.861 | |
| Banana | 0.970 / 0.984 | 0.346 / 0.358 | 0.292 / 0.291 | 0.269 / 0.270 | |
| 0.05 | 0.995 / 0.997 | 0.991 / 0.992 | 0.726 / 0.636 | 0.316 / 0.317 |
| Dataset | Advantage clip | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0.5 | 0.962 / 0.806 | 0.238 / 0.278 | 0.200 / 0.195 | 0.165 / 0.165 |
| 1 | 0.976 / 0.766 | 0.234 / 0.275 | 0.189 / 0.204 | 0.163 / 0.166 | |
| 2 | 0.981 / 0.764 | 0.237 / 0.273 | 0.191 / 0.203 | 0.167 / 0.169 | |
| 5 | 0.981 / 0.754 | 0.215 / 0.285 | 0.181 / 0.217 | 0.165 / 0.165 | |
| Banana | 0.5 | 0.939 / 0.981 | 0.346 / 0.336 | 0.292 / 0.282 | 0.268 / 0.268 |
| 1 | 0.959 / 0.983 | 0.342 / 0.351 | 0.283 / 0.295 | 0.266 / 0.268 |
| Dataset | Source VF | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0 | 0.986 / NF | 0.219 / 0.311 | 0.198 / 0.212 | 0.168 / 0.168 |
| 0.986 / 0.793 | 0.215 / 0.322 | 0.192 / 0.216 | 0.164 / 0.169 | ||
| 0.986 / 0.779 | 0.235 / 0.290 | 0.195 / 0.214 | 0.169 / 0.174 | ||
| 0.981 / 0.754 | 0.215 / 0.285 | 0.181 / 0.217 | 0.165 / 0.165 | ||
| Banana | 0 | 0.978 / 0.993 | 0.337 / 0.385 | 0.295 / 0.297 | 0.270 / 0.270 |
| 0.976 / 0.993 | 0.342 / 0.379 | 0.288 / 0.299 | 0.267 / 0.270 |
| Dataset | Round-old VF | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM | 0 | 0.982 / 0.804 | 0.224 / 0.284 | 0.197 / 0.202 | 0.168 / 0.165 |
| 0.980 / 0.774 | 0.225 / 0.282 | 0.191 / 0.206 | 0.163 / 0.167 | ||
| 0.981 / 0.775 | 0.236 / 0.274 | 0.192 / 0.204 | 0.167 / 0.170 | ||
| 0.981 / 0.733 | 0.215 / 0.278 | 0.183 / 0.214 | 0.164 / 0.163 | ||
| Banana | 0 | 0.970 / 0.984 | 0.346 / 0.358 | 0.292 / 0.291 | 0.269 / 0.270 |
| 0.969 / 0.984 | 0.351 / 0.364 | 0.284 / 0.290 | 0.267 / 0.270 |
| SETTING | TRAINING | FORMAL AUDIT | HIGH AUDIT |
| Protocol | |||
| Targets / seed | 8-component GMMs in 4D, 8D, 16D, and 32D / 13 | ||
| Path / | Linear Gaussian / 0.10 | ||
| Train weights | – | – | |
| Readout weights | – | ||
| Checkpoint scope | 10 fractional | All saved | Final only |
| SETTING | ORDINARY | SCORE-CALIBRATED |
| Protocol | ||
| Targets / seed | GMM-4D, GMM-8D, GMM-16D, and GMM-32D / 13 | |
| Source checkpoint | Corresponding fixed-target , final | |
| CFM-ratio weight | ||
| Audit readout weights | ||
| On-policy Optimization | ||
| Dataset | Train weight | MMD | ||||
| GMM-4D | 0.028 | 2.001 | 1.081 | 1.021 | 1.028 | |
| 0.026 | 1.967 | 1.088 | 1.000 | 1.033 | ||
| GMM-8D | 0.033 | 3.447 | 1.387 | 1.392 | 1.238 | |
| 0.037 | 3.485 | 1.386 | 1.392 | 1.226 | ||
| GMM-16D | 0.023 | 8.108 | 2.000 | 1.880 | 1.711 | |
| Dataset | Train weight | estimate | estimate | ||
| Closure | Closure | ||||
| GMM-4D | 8.586 | 0.758 | 8.578 | 2.548 | |
| 9.946 | 2.944 | 9.461 | 2.191 | ||
| GMM-8D | 11.641 | 1.011 | 10.968 | 0.913 | |
| 8.535 | 6.843 | ||||
| GMM-16D | 13.643 | 2.480 | 14.900 | 2.187 | |
| Dataset | CFM final reward | SC-CFM final reward | CFM source MAE | CFM round-old MAE |
| GMM-4D | 0.997 | 0.998 | 9.454 | 0.815 |
| GMM-8D | 0.995 | 0.643 | 13.911 | 0.746 |
| GMM-16D | 0.991 | 0.481 | 18.298 | 1.574 |
| GMM-32D | 0.910 | 0.209 | 1382.955 | 2.617 |
| Sweep | Settings | ||||
| S1: EMA distance | 0.998; 4/8 | 0.995; 7/8 | 0.985; 6/8 | 0.113; 0/8 | |
| S3: 32D ratio clip | 0.910; 1/8 | 0.982; 3/8 | 0.977; 2/8 | 0.459; 0/8 |
| Dataset | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM-4D | 0.997 / 0.998 | 0.986 / 0.967 | 0.985 / 0.926 | 0.098 / 0.094 |
| GMM-8D | 0.996 / 0.464 | 0.995 / 0.969 | 0.979 / 0.914 | 0.080 / 0.090 |
| GMM-16D | 0.992 / 0.377 | 0.991 / 0.952 | 0.959 / 0.892 | 0.074 / 0.093 |
| GMM-32D | 0.590 / 0.188 | 0.971 / 0.083 | 0.951 / 0.211 | 0.078 / 0.113 |
| Dataset | Ratio clip | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| GMM-4D | 0.905 / 0.649 | 0.480 / 0.506 | 0.168 / 0.238 | 0.082 / 0.085 | |
| 0.05 | 0.997 / 0.999 | 0.987 / 0.969 | 0.980 / 0.930 | 0.101 / 0.092 | |
| 0.2 | 0.996 / 0.998 | 0.996 / 0.999 | 0.990 / 0.962 | 0.118 / 0.100 | |
| None | 0.996 / 0.998 | 0.996 / 0.998 | 0.997 / 0.995 | 0.379 / 0.645 | |
| GMM-8D | 0.993 / 0.752 | 0.701 / 0.647 | 0.216 / 0.385 | 0.078 / 0.091 | |
| 0.05 | 0.996 / 0.486 | 0.996 / 0.964 | 0.973 / 0.917 | 0.076 / 0.089 |
| SETTING | SHARED | MNIST | CIFAR-10 |
| Data and source model | |||
| Input / dimension | Raw pixels | / 784 | / 3,072 |
| Data used for source CFM | Full class mixture | Train and test splits | Train split |
| Velocity field | U-Net | Two resolution levels | Four resolution levels with attention |
| Model range | – | ||
| Path / | Linear Gaussian / | – | – |
| Sweep | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| S1: EMA distance | 1.000 ; 2/2 | 0.984 ; 2/2 | 0.818; 0/2 | 0.541; 0/2 |
| S3: Ratio clip | 1.000 ; 6/8 | 1.000 ; 6/8 | 1.000 ; 3/8 | 0.992 ; 1/8 |
| Dataset | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| MNIST | 1.000 | 0.984 | 0.818 | 0.541 |
| CIFAR-10 | 1.000 | 0.942 | 0.799 | 0.272 |
| Dataset | Ratio clip | EMA | EMA | EMA | EMA |
| MNIST | 1.000 | 0.933 | 0.738 | 0.702 | |
| 0.05 | 1.000 | 0.984 | 0.742 | 0.571 | |
| 0.2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.847 | 0.812 | |
| None | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.992 | |
| CIFAR-10 | 1.000 | 0.815 | 0.918 | 0.673 | |
| 0.05 | 0.952 | 0.799 | 0.775 | 0.769 |
Flow Matching
Flow matching learns continuous-time vector fields that transport simple noise distributions into data for efficient generative modeling.
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