Efficient Online Continual Foundation Model Fine-Tuning for Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event. While PPM research in recent years has been dominated by deep sequence models trained from scratch, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, foundation-model approaches---particularly large language models (LLMs)---are increasingly explored for PPM. At the same time, tabular foundation models with in-context learning capabilities offer a promising alternative but have not yet been systematically benchmarked for PPM. Thus, it remains unclear whether classical sequence-based models remain competitive in this evolving landscape. This paper compares the three modeling paradigms both conceptually and empirically through a controlled benchmark across multiple datasets and prediction tasks. The results show that sequence models consistently perform best for next activity prediction, whereas tabular foundation models are competitive on temporal tasks, with LLMs usually lagging behind despite higher cost.

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) enables organizations to forecast future process behavior, such as the next activity and remaining time of ongoing cases. In practice, three conditions cause existing methods to degrade, namely data scarcity, high process entropy and distributional shift. While Foundation Models (FMs), especially Large Language Models (LLMs), offer a new paradigm through broad sequential reasoning, adapting them to multi-task PPM under these conditions remains an open challenge. Existing FM-based approaches either lack mechanisms for handling distributional shift or rely on direct regression heads that can be structurally misaligned with continuous time prediction tasks. This paper introduces D-TAIA (Domain-aware Training and Attention-based Inference Architecture), a framework for a joint next activity and remaining time prediction task via parameter-efficient fine-tuning of an FM backbone. Our approach combines domain-aware triplet loss (DATL) pre-training with FAISS-based nearest neighbor retrieval for remaining time prediction, and adopts the TAIA inference strategy to preserve pre-trained sequential reasoning during fine-tuning. Evaluated across four real-world event logs, D-TAIA consistently shows SOTA or competitive performance compared to a fine-tuned LLM and a recurrent neural network baseline. Ablation studies confirm that techniques from NLP and computer vision can be transferred effectively to PPM with only a 10M-parameter backbone, though component contributions vary by dataset entropy.

Online task-free continual learning (TFCL) requires intelligent agents to sequentially accumulate knowledge from an unbounded, non-stationary data stream under strict single-pass constraints and without any explicit task identifiers. Existing online TFCL paradigms primarily rely on parameter-efficient prompt tuning or dynamic structure expansion driven by training-coupled optimization dynamics, such as empirical loss fluctuations or evolving latent distances. As a result, these training-coupled solvers remain agnostic to the structural origins of distribution drift, mechanically enforcing a fixed strategy across fundamentally distinct streaming variations. To address this gap, we propose LargeMonitor, a framework that leverages large pretrained foundation models to autonomously orchestrate task-free continuous adaptation. Specifically, LargeMonitor introduces a decoupled detection module utilizing the frozen, stable representation space of large vision models (LVMs) to achieve robust, zero-shot drift detection without training-dependent interference or brittle threshold tuning. Upon a confirmed drift, the framework activates a context-aware diagnostic module driven by large multimodal models (LMMs) to interpret the precise semantic etiologies of the stream variation (e.g., novel class emergence vs. environmental domain shift). This dual-stage capability empowers the continuous learner to dynamically deploy adaptive and shift-specific optimization strategies. Extensive experiments across multiple TFCL settings and benchmarks demonstrate that LargeMonitor achieves precise, robust detection and diagnosis of complex data streams while consistently improving the performance of existing online TFCL algorithms.