JPO: Juris Policy Optimization for Structured Legal Reasoning in Criminal Judgment Prediction

Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) has become a core benchmark for evaluating AI in the criminal legal domain, but it only sees criminal cases that have already passed prosecutorial review and been formally indicted. As a result, LJP leaves a substantial blind spot in assessing criminal liability, overlooking cases involving insufficient evidence, no criminal liability, or guilt exempted from punishment. To fill this gap, we propose \textbf{Prosecution Decision Prediction (PDP)}, the first Legal AI task built around prosecutorial review, which classifies each case into prosecution or one of three non-prosecution decisions and reflects legal AI's capabilities in evidence evaluation, legal subsumption, and value-based discretion. We further construct \textbf{PDP-Bench}, a benchmark of 4{,}630 real Chinese prosecutorial decisions spanning 190 charges. Extensive experiments show that state-of-the-art LLMs perform substantially worse on PDP than on LJP and that mainstream enhancement routes fail to close the gap. Moreover, controlled RLVR interventions show that simple outcome rewards fail to produce generalizable PDP discrimination.

Automating the drafting of judgment documents is pivotal to judicial efficiency, yet it remains challenging due to the dual requirements of comprehensive retrieval of legal information and rigorous logical reasoning. Existing approaches, typically relying on standard Retrieval-Augmented Generation and Supervised Fine-Tuning, often suffer from insufficient evidence recall, hallucinated statutory references, and logically flawed legal reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose Judge-R1, a unified framework designed to enhance LLM-based judgment document generation by jointly improving legal information collection and judgment document generation. First, we introduce Agentic Legal Information Collection, which employs a dynamic planning agent to retrieve precise statutes and precedents from multiple sources. Second, we implement Rubric-Guided Optimization, a reinforcement learning phase utilizing Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with a comprehensive legal reward function to enforce adherence to judicial standards and reasoning logic. Extensive experiments on the JuDGE benchmark demonstrate that Judge-R1 significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both legal accuracy and generation quality.

What happens when a legal AI model learns to look like a lawyer instead of reasoning like one? We fine tune Qwen3-8B with Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) against a proxy built from three surface features: citation count, legalese density, and response length. The model does not learn to reason more effectively. It learns to withhold commitment. Across 16 yes or no legal reasoning tasks from LegalBench (N=320), overall accuracy collapses from 0.500 (chance) to 0.072 (McNemar p < 10^-36), driven entirely by the rate of properly formatted answers falling from 0.900 to 0.109. The model stops committing to answers. Yet when it does commit, accuracy rises from 0.556 to 0.657, showing that the collapse is not a failure of capability but a strategic response: the model has learned that verbose responses packed with citations but empty of a direct answer score higher than terse correct ones. We term this the Saul Goodman effect, a policy that becomes maximally lawyerly while becoming maximally noncommittal, and prove formally that it is the optimal response to any surface feature proxy that attaches no penalty to abstention. We further show that 89.3% of citations produced after training are structurally implausible hallucinations, many of them subtly corrupted names of real landmark cases, constructed in effect to survive a casual read and fail under scrutiny. To detect this failure mode before deployment, we introduce three diagnostic tools: the Confidence Theater Score (CTS), the Citation Plausibility Rate (CPR), and the Regret Gap (RG). In a domain where a confidently wrong answer can constitute malpractice, the broader lesson is direct: a reward function that measures how legal a response looks will produce a model that is maximally photogenic and minimally useful.