Generalization as a robust performance property of learning-enabled dynamical systems

Many systems resist analytical modeling, making data-driven inference of dynamics important. Yet data-driven methods can fail to converge or generalize, leaving open a central question: When can system behavior be learned reliably from data, and when is such learning impossible? We answer this question using adversarial dynamical systems to identify the boundary between accessible and inaccessible regimes. In Koopman operator learning, a leading framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through linear spectral objects, we design optimal data-driven spectral algorithms with convergence and certification guarantees under conditions arising broadly in physical systems. This yields a convergence theory for Koopman-operator approximations and resolves a longstanding open problem in Koopman spectral analysis. Conversely, by constructing adversarial systems, we prove matching impossibility results: without these conditions, no single-sequence limiting procedure can guarantee learning, regardless of data quality. These results sharply characterize when data-driven spectral learning can succeed and when it must fail. We validate the framework on oscillators, chaotic fluid flows and Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting. In the latter, we uncover hidden modes of Arctic sea ice decline, deliver long-range forecasts with geographic error bounds, and outperform state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models at substantially lower computational cost, enabling real-time deployment on standard CPUs.

Training modern neural networks often relies on large learning rates, operating at the edge of stability, where the optimization dynamics exhibit oscillatory and chaotic behavior. Empirically, this regime often yields improved generalization performance, yet the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we represent stochastic optimizers as random dynamical systems, which often converge to a fractal attractor set (rather than a point) with a smaller intrinsic dimension. Building on this connection and inspired by Lyapunov dimension theory, we introduce a novel notion of dimension, coined the `sharpness dimension', and prove a generalization bound based on this dimension. Our results show that generalization in the chaotic regime depends on the complete Hessian spectrum and the structure of its partial determinants, highlighting a complexity that cannot be captured by the trace or spectral norm considered in prior work. Experiments across various MLPs and transformers validate our theory while also providing new insights into the recently observed phenomenon of grokking.

Policies must operate across diverse conditions, yet a single policy is often conservative while fully adaptive schemes can be complex. We study zero-shot generalization in contextual dynamical systems and introduce a performance-centric, directional task dissimilarity--the signed divergence--that upper bounds the generalization gap from a source context to a target context. The signed divergence induces $\varepsilon$-tolerance sets that certify when a source policy class generalizes, and it yields a concrete notion of task-space complexity: the minimum number of source contexts needed so that every target context incurs at most $\varepsilon$ generalization gap. Under a mild local smoothness assumption on performance, the induced tolerance sets admit certified inner/outer balls and instance-dependent volume bounds on task-space complexity. In the finite-oracle setting, source selection reduces to set cover; a greedy strategy inherits the standard $H(n)$ approximation guarantee. Using a Mass-Spring-Damper system with linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) controllers and a nonlinear CartPole system with deep reinforcement learning controllers, we show that greedy selection achieves the same $\varepsilon$-coverage with fewer policies than uniform or random baselines. Our approach delivers a performance-based task similarity measure and practical certificates for building generalizable control with simple policies.