Predicting Residential Rents in Dakar Using Machine Learning

Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available. This study quantifies the trade-off between predictive accuracy and input accessibility using two nationally representative U.S. residential-energy datasets: the survey-based Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the simulation-based ResStock dataset. Full-feature models were first used to establish dataset-specific performance benchmarks. For total-energy estimation, the models were subsequently restricted to ten low-burden variables obtainable from occupants, administrative records, or location-based weather data without an on-site energy audit. Among CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, CatBoost consistently achieved the highest predictive performance for the full-feature analysis, reaching R2 = 0.90 for ResStock and R2 = 0.73 for RECS. When the feature set was restricted to ten homeowner-accessible inputs to simulate realistic deployment conditions, model performance converged to R2 = 0.61 for RECS and R2 = 0.62 for ResStock, showing that algorithmic complexity cannot fully compensate for missing physical and behavioral information. However, for a more homogeneous ResStock cohort consisting of single-family detached, natural-gas-heated homes in Climate Zone 6A constructed between 2000 and 2010, a reduced-input model improved accuracy to R2 = 0.85, demonstrating the value of targeted modeling for homogeneous populations. The results indicate that tree-based ensemble models can serve as high-fidelity emulators of national-scale residential energy datasets. However, careful consideration of feature availability, dataset origin (empirical vs. synthetic), and applicable use cases are also important.

Achieving resilient and sustainable cities requires scalable approaches to decarbonising residential buildings, which account for about 20% of UK greenhouse gas emissions and 25% of energy-related emissions in the European Union. Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) support regulation and retrofit planning, but their reliance on on-site inspections limits timely city-scale assessment. This study introduces a gated multimodal model to predict Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) energy efficiency and Environmental Impact (EI) scores by integrating EPC tabular variables, assessor-written free text, and Geographic Information System (GIS)-derived spatial features describing footprint geometry, height, area, and orientation. Sample-wise gating learns property-specific modality weights, while an auxiliary band classification head stabilises training. In a Westminster, London case study, the model predicts SAP and EI scores with MAEs of 4.03 and 4.76 points and R2 values of 0.757 and 0.748, respectively, achieving a mean MAE of 4.39. Ablation results show that full multimodal fusion outperforms unimodal and bimodal baselines for both score prediction and band-level classification. Interpretability analyses provide decision-relevant evidence: gating weights indicate strong reliance on assessor text; SHAP highlights main fuel, built form, and construction age band; text occlusion prioritises roof and wall fields; and spatial attribution is dominated by height and footprint area, with sensitivity to footprint shape. The validated framework is further applied to retrofit scenarios for wall insulation, roof insulation, and window glazing upgrades, indicating projected improvements in SAP, EI, annual energy cost, and equivalent CO2 emissions. Overall, the framework provides scalable property-level evidence for retrofit screening, intervention prioritisation, and net-zero housing transitions.

In the recent literature, Support Vector Regression (SVR) has been cited as one of the weakest performers on the California Housing benchmark dataset, with Preethi et al. (2025)specifically ranking it last among the algorithms they tested, reporting an R2 of only 0.60. This paper examines whether the previously reported performance reflects experimental configuration choices rather than an inherent algorithmic limitation. A structured experimental workflow is applied: ten domain-motivated derived features are constructed from the eight raw inputs, an exploratory ensemble feature importance analysis identifies the most predictive candidates, and a randomised search over hyperparameter combinations with three-fold cross-validation selects the optimal SVR configuration within a leakage-safe scikit-learn Pipeline. A formal four-stage ablation study isolates the contribution of each component: scaling alone accounts for +0.744 in R2 (from -0.054 to 0.690), feature engineering adds +0.026 (to 0.716), and hyperparameter tuning contributes +0.008 (to 0.723). The resulting tuned SVR achieves a test R2 of 0.723, a 0.123-point absolute improvement over the previously reported SVR result (from 0.60 to 0.723, approximately 20% relative gain). In the ten-model comparison, the tuned SVR ranks fourth with R2 = 0.723, below XGBoost (0.832), Random Forest (0.814) and Gradient Boosting (0.783), while substantially outperforming simpler baselines. Ten-fold cross-validation yields a mean R2 of 0.703 (95% CI: [0.630, 0.775]), confirming robust generalisation. The observed improvement from R2 = 0.60 to R2 = 0.723 is associated primarily with proper feature scaling within a unified preprocessing pipeline, with domain-motivated feature engineering and systematic hyperparameter tuning, providing further incremental gains.