Fractal dimension predicts quantum kernel collapse in angle-encoded data

Quantum-kernel methods encode a dataset's geometry in a Gram matrix, so learning claims on hardware kernels assume the intended geometry survives execution. We measure that survival for one frozen four-qubit ZZ feature-map kernel on $N=24$ real indoor air-quality windows, reconstructed on ibm_fez (1024 shots per circuit) under baseline, dynamical decoupling alone, and gate twirling alone, each a single non-interleaved job. Every configuration returned a complete, finite, positive-semidefinite Gram matrix and preserved the centered statevector geometry to a substantial but incomplete descriptive degree (full-matrix centered kernel alignment, CKA, 0.933-0.989). Gate twirling was most faithful on every reported geometry axis, with the only jackknife-resolved improvement over baseline (persisted Spearman, mean absolute error, and full-matrix CKA diagnostics); dynamical decoupling alone was not separated from baseline at the frozen-window scale. Residual hardware distortion, not finite sampling, dominates the discrepancy. Yet fidelity and label alignment were reversed: the most faithful configuration had the lowest centered kernel-target alignment, which sits at or below label-permutation references for statevector and hardware alike. We read the small hardware uplift as a normalization property of the non-affine distortion, not captured signal. These are descriptive results for single jobs on one backend, not causal mitigation-efficacy estimates; no quantum-advantage, hardware-classifier-superiority, or forecasting claim is made. Implementation fidelity and task relevance are distinct axes; hardware quantum machine-learning studies should report both.

Recent quantum vision models-quantum vision transformers and quantum convolutional networks-report two striking but unexplained empirical phenomena: (i) ansatze with more, or more uniformly distributed, entanglement generalize better, and (ii) injecting quantum noise can improve test accuracy rather than degrade it. These observations are currently treated as curiosities, discovered by grid search and explained, if at all, by hand. We show that both are manifestations of a single, measurable quantity: the \emph{effective dimension} $d_{\rm eff}$ of the (noise-shaped) quantum feature kernel. Working primarily with quantum-kernel vision models-a quantum feature map read out by a kernel classifier-we give a spectral account in which entanglement structure and quantum noise are two knobs that move $d_{\rm eff}$; in an overfitting regime, contracting $d_{\rm eff}$ acts as ridge-like regularization. We analyze the mechanism: an \emph{exact} decomposition of the depolarized kernel $K_p=(1-p)^2K+\tfrac{p(2-p)}{D}\mathbf{1}\mathbf{1}^\top$ with $d_{\rm eff}(K_p)\to1$, a contraction result (and its boundary) for amplitude damping, a kernel-machine capacity bound, and a capacity/alignment risk decomposition; the monotone contraction operative in our entangled experiments is verified empirically, not proven in general. Along the one-parameter depolarizing family the collapse is instead exact by construction; we use it only to confirm the kernel decomposition to machine precision and at up to $12$ qubits, not as evidence for $d_{\rm eff}$. Amplitude damping contracts $d_{\rm eff}$ and lifts test accuracy by up to $+13\%$ along an inverted-U sweet spot; the effect's sign flips between the over- and under-fitting regimes; noise injection matches an explicit spectral-filtering frontier. Our results organize two reported anecdotes into a single measurable principle for designing quantum-vision models.

Estimating an $N \times N$ quantum kernel from circuit fidelities requires $Θ(N^2 S)$ measurement shots, the dominant bottleneck for deployment on near-term hardware. Existing budget-saving methods (Nyström-QKE, ShoFaR, kernel-target alignment) sub-sample \emph{which} entries to measure but allocate shots \emph{uniformly} within their chosen subset, ignoring how much each entry drives the downstream classifier. We close this gap with two contributions. \textbf{First, a complete regime decomposition} for shot-budgeted quantum kernel learning: a principled menu of when each allocator wins. Our method, \emph{AQKA}, dominates the budget-limited regime ($B \lesssim 16 n_{\mathrm{pairs}}$) on sparse-sensitivity KRR, with the gap \emph{growing} from $+8$ to $+25$ pts over uniform as $N$ scales $225{\to}1000$ and reaching $+26$--$32$ pts on an \texttt{ibm_pittsburgh} (156-qubit Heron) hardware kernel; Nyström-QKE wins at saturating budgets on planted-sparse via low-rank reconstruction; ShoFaR is competitive only at extreme low budgets. \textbf{Second, a closed-form pair-level acquisition theory}: $s_{ij}^{\star} \propto |g_{ij}|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$ with explicit gradient $g_{ij}$ for KRR (Lemma1, $|β_iα_j+β_jα_i|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$) and SVM via the envelope theorem ($|η_i^*η_j^*|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$); a \emph{corrected} sparsity-aware Cauchy--Schwarz rate $ρ\le 2m/N$ matching empirics (vs.\ the naive $m^2/N^2$); an explicit-constant plug-in regret bound (Theorem2); and a tighter SVM ceiling $ρ^{\mathrm{SVM}} \le m_{\mathrm{sv}}^2/N^2$. We close with the first multi-seed live online adaptive shot allocation on quantum hardware: $+17.0 \pm 4.8$ pts at $N{=}20$ on \texttt{ibm_aachen} ($3.5σ$, 5 seeds), with the advantage holding at $N{=}30$ at higher budget on \texttt{ibm_berlin} ($+14.0 \pm 8.5$ pts, 5 seeds).