Statevector-Referenced Geometry Survival of a Four-Qubit ZZ Quantum Kernel on IBM Quantum Hardware: A Fixed-Subset Diagnostic Across Three Execution Configurations

Angle-encoded quantum kernels on tabular data collapse when the feature map is wider than the intrinsic dimension of the data. We propose the correlation fractal dimension D2 as an a priori qubit budget: encode D2 coordinates chosen by FD-ASE instead of the PCA-95% width or all E attributes. On nine data sets and a statevector simulator (n= 32), a one-layer ZZ fidelity kernel at q=D2 stays geometrically alive while the same kernel at the PCA-95% width has already collapsed. The budget is map-dependent: product-state and IQP maps overshoot it; a second ZZ layer undershoots it. Packed dense-angle and re-uploading encodings still live at the fractal q, but not when PCA-95% features are stacked onto those qubits. Shrinking the angle bandwidth moves the ZZ knee later; stretching it kills the kernel earlier. On IBM Quantum (ibm_fez, 256 shots, n=8) the one-layer ZZ kernel at the fractal width matches the exact kernel (MAE 0.021); past that width both hardware and simulator have collapsed. The ceiling is a property of the map-data pair at a stated bandwidth, not of the classical table alone.

Quantum kernel methods have been proposed as a promising approach for leveraging near-term quantum computers for supervised learning, yet rigorous benchmarks against strong classical baselines remain scarce. We present a comprehensive empirical study of quantum kernel support vector machines (QSVMs) across nine binary classification datasets, four quantum feature maps, three classical kernels, and multiple noise models, totalling 970 experiments with strict nested cross-validation. Our analysis spans four phases: (i) statistical significance testing, revealing that none of 29 pairwise quantum-classical comparisons reach significance at $α= 0.05$; (ii) learning curve analysis over six training fractions, showing steeper quantum slopes on six of eight datasets that nonetheless fail to close the gap to the best classical baseline; (iii) hardware validation on IBM ibm_fez (Heron r2), demonstrating kernel fidelity $r \geq 0.976$ across six experiments; and (iv) seed sensitivity analysis confirming reproducibility (mean CV 1.4%). A Kruskal-Wallis factorial analysis reveals that dataset choice dominates performance variance ($\varepsilon^2 = 0.73$), while kernel type accounts for only 9%. Spectral analysis offers a mechanistic explanation: current quantum feature maps produce eigenspectra that are either too flat or too concentrated, missing the intermediate profile of the best classical kernel, the radial basis function (RBF). Quantum kernel training (QKT) via kernel-target alignment yields the single competitive result -- balanced accuracy 0.968 on breast cancer -- but with ~2,000x computational overhead. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for quantum kernel research. The complete benchmark suite is publicly available to facilitate reproduction and extension.

Estimating an $N \times N$ quantum kernel from circuit fidelities requires $Θ(N^2 S)$ measurement shots, the dominant bottleneck for deployment on near-term hardware. Existing budget-saving methods (Nyström-QKE, ShoFaR, kernel-target alignment) sub-sample \emph{which} entries to measure but allocate shots \emph{uniformly} within their chosen subset, ignoring how much each entry drives the downstream classifier. We close this gap with two contributions. \textbf{First, a complete regime decomposition} for shot-budgeted quantum kernel learning: a principled menu of when each allocator wins. Our method, \emph{AQKA}, dominates the budget-limited regime ($B \lesssim 16 n_{\mathrm{pairs}}$) on sparse-sensitivity KRR, with the gap \emph{growing} from $+8$ to $+25$ pts over uniform as $N$ scales $225{\to}1000$ and reaching $+26$--$32$ pts on an \texttt{ibm_pittsburgh} (156-qubit Heron) hardware kernel; Nyström-QKE wins at saturating budgets on planted-sparse via low-rank reconstruction; ShoFaR is competitive only at extreme low budgets. \textbf{Second, a closed-form pair-level acquisition theory}: $s_{ij}^{\star} \propto |g_{ij}|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$ with explicit gradient $g_{ij}$ for KRR (Lemma1, $|β_iα_j+β_jα_i|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$) and SVM via the envelope theorem ($|η_i^*η_j^*|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$); a \emph{corrected} sparsity-aware Cauchy--Schwarz rate $ρ\le 2m/N$ matching empirics (vs.\ the naive $m^2/N^2$); an explicit-constant plug-in regret bound (Theorem2); and a tighter SVM ceiling $ρ^{\mathrm{SVM}} \le m_{\mathrm{sv}}^2/N^2$. We close with the first multi-seed live online adaptive shot allocation on quantum hardware: $+17.0 \pm 4.8$ pts at $N{=}20$ on \texttt{ibm_aachen} ($3.5σ$, 5 seeds), with the advantage holding at $N{=}30$ at higher budget on \texttt{ibm_berlin} ($+14.0 \pm 8.5$ pts, 5 seeds).