DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

LLM agents in knowledge intensive question answering take retrieval and reasoning actions with incomplete knowledge about whether their current answer is uncertain, unsupported, or already complete. This produces two failure modes: committing to confident but unsupported answers, which hurts accuracy, and over-retrieving when the evidence in hand already suffices, resulting in wasted compute. To give agents a more complete picture of the state space they are operating in, we introduce calibrated verifier telemetry (CalVerT), which augments the agent's state with additional telemetry: a calibrated self-confidence score and a grounding verifier score. We show that CalVerT can improve agents in both training-free and training-based settings. On four QA benchmarks, we find that CalVerT raises F1 by triggering retrieval in cases where agents over-rely on parametric knowledge, while cutting redundant retrieval in cases where agents have sufficient context to answer. We show that CalVerT can augment existing QA frameworks without training. Moreover, CalVerT also improves trained systems: by simply augmenting an agent's state with telemetry, we observe improvements after reinforcement learning, as compared to an agent with identical training but no CalVerT telemetry.

Deep research agents face vast, interdependent, and pervasively uncertain information. Existing systems explore what evolving intermediate representations should look like, but leave their evolution to the LLM's implicit reasoning. Without explicit regulation, the intermediate layer is easily contaminated by mixed-quality information, and errors propagate along its dependencies, so model scale often ends up substituting for absent regulation. We argue that an agent's mental model should instead evolve through explicit feedback that continuously aligns task understanding with reality, and identify three regulatory loops: interpretive update, deviation feedback, and schema revision. We realise this in VeriTrace, a cognitive-graph framework that explicitly implements the three loops. Using matched Qwen3.5-27B backbones, VeriTrace improves over the strongest matched baseline by an average of 4.82 pp on DeepResearch Bench (DRB) Insight (1.83 pp Overall) and by 5.9 pp Overall win rate on DeepConsult. With Config-DeepSeek, it achieves the strongest reproducible open-source result on DRB.

Large language models often express high confidence in answers that are wrong. Standard calibration remedies typically act globally or at the score level, reducing unwarranted confidence but also risking erosion of warranted confidence on correct answers. We introduce Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention (PCHI), an inference-time method that uses a frozen probe to detect likely wrong-but-confident responses and conditionally rescales downstream attention-head outputs during confidence generation. On Qwen3-4B-Instruct solving OpenMathInstruct problems with a structured binary confidence field, readout-token PCHI converts 82.2% of originally wrong-yes confidence readouts to $\texttt{no}$, while a joint intervention across upstream confidence-template tokens reduces ECE from 21.9% to 9.2% and damages only 5.1% of originally correct-yes readouts. The readout-token effect also appears on Gemma3-4B, though upstream interventions are weaker and more mask-dependent. These results show that verbalized overconfidence can be selectively reduced through conditionally applied internal intervention, partially decoupling the suppression of unwarranted confidence from the loss of warranted confidence.