MineTRACE: An Evidence-Grounded Interactive Reasoning System for Mineral Prospectivity

Exploration drill targeting in structurally complex terranes is hindered by sparse sampling, heterogeneous datasets, and the ambiguity of geophysical inversions. Here, we present an uncertainty-aware 3D workflow for the acceleration of time-to-discovery in brownfield explorations and apply it to the Kogodai prospect in the Rudny Altai metallogenic province. We jointly analyse existing drilling and geophysical data in a comprehensive approach, revealing hidden patterns in already available data. Drillholes and trenches were desurveyed to a common 3D reference frame, and assays were composited to a consistent spatial support to facilitate joint modelling with geophysical inputs. We develop Bayesian deep-learning models to predict 3D fields of Cu grade together with chargeability and apparent resistivity while quantifying epistemic uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling. The original contribution of this work is to treat the problem not as pointwise regression between co-located observations, but as joint learning of spatially continuous 3D fields from sparse, heterogeneous exploration evidence. The resulting 3D predictions delineate a principal mineralized trend and several localized candidate zones that coincide with elevated induced polarization (IP) responses, while uncertainty mapping highlights where predictions are robust versus where additional drilling would be most informative. The continuous Cu-grade field can also be thresholded to produce binary prospectivity maps, allowing the sensitivity of target delineation to the chosen cutoff to be evaluated. The outputs are intended for qualitative interpretation and risk-aware drill targeting rather than resource estimation, and we discuss key limitations arising from incomplete provenance metadata for geophysical products and heterogeneity of historical sampling.

Mineral prospectivity modelling (MPM) underpins exploration economics, yet most operational pipelines reduce to data-driven classifiers trained on shallow surface proxies. Such models are blind to the subsurface physics that actually localises ore: heat advection, fluid flow, and lithology-dependent precipitation. We present Korzhinskii-Net, a 2-D radial physics-informed neural network (PINN) that couples Darcy flow, advective-diffusive heat transport, and a softplus-saturated reaction rate into a single differentiable forward model, weakly supervised by surface and remote-sensing proxies. The network is named after Dmitri S. Korzhinskii (1899-1985), whose theory of infiltration metasomatism provides the physical scaffold. We evaluate Korzhinskii-Net on six ore provinces spanning three commodity classes - Udokan (sandstone-hosted Cu), Sukhoi Log, Olimpiada, and Berezovskoye (orogenic Au), Vorontsovskoye (Carlin-type Au), and Dalnegorsk (skarn polymetallic) - under a fair, leakage-controlled 5-fold cross-validation protocol with hard ring-shaped negatives and baseline proxy features disabled. Korzhinskii-Net attains a mean PR-AUC of 0.708 versus 0.235 for the strongest classical baseline (support vector machine), and a mean fractional rank of 0.036 versus 0.475. The improvement is consistent across all six provinces and three commodity systems, suggesting that physics-informed differentiable simulators, even when constrained only by global open-data proxies, can recover localisation patterns that pure feature-based learners systematically miss. We release the full pipeline and evaluation harness as open source.

This paper builds a theoretical bridge between the economic notion of marginal utility and two machine-learning constructs, matrix factorization and the Key--Value cache of transformer language models. The singular value spectrum of a rating matrix is shown to be a diminishing marginal utility schedule for latent factors, the eigenvalue spectrum of the projected covariance operator to be the marginal utility schedule of a model's learned representation, and cache eviction and low-rank cache compression to be instances of constrained utility maximization under a memory budget. The three collapse into a single allocation rule: retain the top dimensions whose eigenvalue exceeds the shadow price of the binding constraint. The framework is applied to the automated extraction of structured information from geo-mining documents, where it motivates a multi-pass inference protocol, a layer-wise TIES model merging procedure, and a selection policy combining extraction quality, localization drift and energy, scalarized with a Conditional Value-at-Risk term on drift. Two empirical contributions are reported. An 11.2-million-parameter hierarchical classifier, trained in about five minutes on a single GPU, reaches 90.0 per cent level-1 accuracy on a held-out test set from a 973-document uranium-exploration corpus, against 92.0 per cent for a proprietary model on a fifty-document human audit of the same corpus, at a latency of 2.62 ms per card against approximately 2,000 ms for the API and at negligible cost. A diagnostic of uniform-density TIES merging exposes a reproducible degenerate mode in which the merged model returns token-identical outputs across five geographically distinct districts while declaring high confidence; re-executing the merge under layer-wise calibrated densities removes that signature on the diagnostic sample. The full-scale extraction benchmark, including LoRA fine-tuning, is reported as projected rather than measured and remains an empirical extension of this work.