Bayesian deep learning integration of geophysical and drilling data for 3D prediction of copper mineralization and drill targeting: a case study from the Kogodai prospect, Rudny Altai
Authors: Margarita Veshchezerova, Egor Barashov, Evgenii Gusev, Michael R. Perelshtein, Arlan Kasymzhan, Bolat M. Kabaziev, Nurlan Y. Askarov
Abstract
Exploration drill targeting in structurally complex terranes is hindered by sparse sampling, heterogeneous datasets, and the ambiguity of geophysical inversions. Here, we present an uncertainty-aware 3D workflow for the acceleration of time-to-discovery in brownfield explorations and apply it to the Kogodai prospect in the Rudny Altai metallogenic province. We jointly analyse existing drilling and geophysical data in a comprehensive approach, revealing hidden patterns in already available data. Drillholes and trenches were desurveyed to a common 3D reference frame, and assays were composited to a consistent spatial support to facilitate joint modelling with geophysical inputs. We develop Bayesian deep-learning models to predict 3D fields of Cu grade together with chargeability and apparent resistivity while quantifying epistemic uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling. The original contribution of this work is to treat the problem not as pointwise regression between co-located observations, but as joint learning of spatially continuous 3D fields from sparse, heterogeneous exploration evidence. The resulting 3D predictions delineate a principal mineralized trend and several localized candidate zones that coincide with elevated induced polarization (IP) responses, while uncertainty mapping highlights where predictions are robust versus where additional drilling would be most informative. The continuous Cu-grade field can also be thresholded to produce binary prospectivity maps, allowing the sensitivity of target delineation to the chosen cutoff to be evaluated. The outputs are intended for qualitative interpretation and risk-aware drill targeting rather than resource estimation, and we discuss key limitations arising from incomplete provenance metadata for geophysical products and heterogeneity of historical sampling.
Mineral exploration requires integrating heterogeneous geochemical, geophysical, and geological evidence, yet existing prospectivity systems often provide only opaque scores or heatmaps. We present MineTRACE, a web-based system for evidence-grounded exploration of eight commodities: Cu, Au, Ni, W, Sn, Co, Ta, and Mn. Users can explore prospectivity maps, query locations or regions, inspect supporting evidence, and interact through natural language. A transparent expert tree, informed by geological knowledge and known deposits, combines multi-source evidence into interpretable prospectivity scores. For a new location, the conversational assistant retrieves the score and supporting evidence from the analysis pipeline and presents them in natural language. The scorer achieves spatial AUC values of up to 0.917 across different test scenarios, while end-to-end evaluation assesses query accuracy and response grounding. MineTRACE makes public geoscience data easier to access, interpret, and verify, supporting more efficient and transparent mineral exploration.
Mineral prospectivity modelling (MPM) underpins exploration economics, yet most operational pipelines reduce to data-driven classifiers trained on shallow surface proxies. Such models are blind to the subsurface physics that actually localises ore: heat advection, fluid flow, and lithology-dependent precipitation. We present Korzhinskii-Net, a 2-D radial physics-informed neural network (PINN) that couples Darcy flow, advective-diffusive heat transport, and a softplus-saturated reaction rate into a single differentiable forward model, weakly supervised by surface and remote-sensing proxies. The network is named after Dmitri S. Korzhinskii (1899-1985), whose theory of infiltration metasomatism provides the physical scaffold. We evaluate Korzhinskii-Net on six ore provinces spanning three commodity classes - Udokan (sandstone-hosted Cu), Sukhoi Log, Olimpiada, and Berezovskoye (orogenic Au), Vorontsovskoye (Carlin-type Au), and Dalnegorsk (skarn polymetallic) - under a fair, leakage-controlled 5-fold cross-validation protocol with hard ring-shaped negatives and baseline proxy features disabled. Korzhinskii-Net attains a mean PR-AUC of 0.708 versus 0.235 for the strongest classical baseline (support vector machine), and a mean fractional rank of 0.036 versus 0.475. The improvement is consistent across all six provinces and three commodity systems, suggesting that physics-informed differentiable simulators, even when constrained only by global open-data proxies, can recover localisation patterns that pure feature-based learners systematically miss. We release the full pipeline and evaluation harness as open source.
Subsurface ore detection is of paramount importance given the rising depletion of shallow mineral resources in recent years. It is crucial to explore approaches that go beyond the limitations of traditional geological exploration methods. Due to readily available surface readings, joint magnetic and gravitational inversion is a promising new method - given magnetic and gravitational data on a surface, jointly reconstructing the underlying densities that generate them. However, this is ill-posed and has non-unique solutions. Deterministic methods often require handcrafted priors and converge to a single solution and do not capture the distribution, which is often of interest. We introduce a novel framework that reframes 3D gravity and magnetic joint inversion as a rectified flow on the Noddyverse dataset, the largest physics-based dataset for inversion. We introduce a Ginzburg-Landau (GL) regularizer, a generalized version of the Ising model that aids in ore identification, enabling physics-aware training. We also propose a guidance methodology based on GL theory that can be used as a plug-and-play module with existing unconditional denoisers. Lastly, we also train and release a VAE for the 3D densities, which facilitates downstream work in the field.