Evaluating GNNs for Success Prediction in Artist Collaboration Networks

Can large language models (LLMs) predict which researchers will collaborate? We study this question through link prediction on real-world co-authorship networks from OpenAlex (9.96M authors, 108.7M edges), evaluating whether LLMs can predict future scientific collaborations using only author profiles, without access to graph structure. Using Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct across three historical eras of AI research, we find that LLMs and topology heuristics capture distinct signals and are strongest in complementary settings. On new-edge prediction under natural class imbalance, the LLM achieves AUROC 0.714--0.789, outperforming Common Neighbors, Jaccard, and Preferential Attachment, with recall up to 92.9%; under balanced evaluation, the LLM outperforms all topology heuristics in every era (AUROC 0.601--0.658 vs.\ best-heuristic 0.525--0.538); on continued edges, the LLM (0.687) is competitive with Adamic-Adar (0.684). Critically, 78.6--82.7% of new collaborations occur between authors with no common neighbor -- a blind spot where all topology heuristics score zero but the LLM still achieves AUROC 0.652 by reasoning from author metadata alone. A temporal metadata ablation reveals that research concepts are the dominant signal (removing concepts drops AUROC by 0.047--0.084). Providing pre-computed graph features to the LLM degrades performance due to anchoring effects, confirming that LLMs and topology methods should operate as separate, complementary channels. A socio-cultural ablation finds that name-inferred ethnicity and institutional country do not predict collaboration beyond topology, reflecting the demographic homogeneity of AI research. A node2vec baseline achieves AUROC comparable to Adamic-Adar, establishing that LLMs access a fundamentally different information channel -- author metadata -- rather than encoding the same structural signal differently.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used as regressors, for example to predict the accuracy of a neural architecture. Yet new message-passing (MP) layers are developed and benchmarked almost exclusively on classification tasks, and regression pipelines typically adopt a single MP layer without ablation. We ask how much the choice of MP layer matters for graph-level regression. Holding the architecture, loss and training recipe of four existing GNN regressors fixed, we substitute ten MP configurations spanning convolutional, isomorphism-based and attention-based designs. We evaluate them on eleven datasets of neural-network graphs that range from under ten to over a thousand nodes per graph and from a few hundred to over four hundred thousand samples, measuring rank correlation, prediction error, top-$k$ retrieval, latency and memory. MP choice changes results substantially, and we find that the best choice depends on graph size, training-set size and regression objective. Classical layers such as GEN, $k$-GNN and PNA match or exceed attention-based layers on small architecture graphs at lower cost, while GATv2 performs well on datasets with few large graphs.

Creativity is a complex cognitive ability that relies on knowledge organisation and retrieval from semantic memory. Yet most research uses a single task to measure it, capturing only a fraction of this complexity. This study investigates multiplex networks - layered semantic networks obtained from six cognitive tasks - as a more comprehensive approach to modelling the associative knowledge underlying creativity. We collected data from N=518 individuals from four countries (Austria, USA, Singapore, Italy). From their responses to verbal fluency, sentence-chain, free association, and narrative writing tasks, we constructed semantic networks and assembled them in a multiplex structure. AI persona-based responses provided a comparison baseline. Structural reducibility analyses showed that different task layers captured distinct, non-redundant information about semantic organisation, supporting the use of multiple tasks over any single one. The networks from high- and low-creative groups remained structurally distinct, while AI-generated networks showed near-identical structures regardless of creativity group. Finally, we used 12 features (network measures, emotional scores, and spreading activation simulations) in a machine learning model using ridge regression to predict individual creativity scores. The combination of structurally similar layers, as identified in the previous stage, improved a proof-of-concept prediction accuracy by 50%. Structural measures showed the highest feature importance, with spreading activation dynamics providing additional predictive power. Together, these findings indicate that multiplex semantic networks capture a richer, cross-cultural picture of associative knowledge underlying creativity. We also release our diverse dataset and code to foster diverse computational approaches within the creativity community.