Designing effective and fiscally sustainable policies for solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption requires balancing adoption gains against public expenditure under uncertainty and heterogeneous decision-making. This study formulates PV policy design as a sequential decision problem and integrates reinforcement learning (RL) with a stochastic agent-based model (ABM) that simulates yearly solar PV adoption under uncertainty. A policymaker agent selects annual incentives, including capital grants, subsidised loan rates, and feed-in tariffs, over a 16-year horizon. Adoption--cost trade-offs are explored by varying policy preferences within a scalarised reward framework. Policies are learned using PPO, SAC, and TD3 and evaluated under stochastic simulation. The results show that this approach produces a clear trade-off structure: the highest-adoption policy (TD3, wcost=0.5) achieves approximately 4,145 adopters at a cost of EUR 41.73 million, while the lowest-cost policy (PPO, wcost=2.0) reduces expenditure to EUR 7.27 million with 2,682 adopters. The balanced policy (PPO, wcost=1.6) achieves 3,495 adopters at a cost of EUR 22.47 million. Across algorithms, consistent trade-off patterns are observed, indicating robustness of the adoption--cost relationship. Compared with static baseline policies, the RL framework explores a broader range of policy configurations. These findings demonstrate the potential of RL as a flexible tool for adaptive policy design under uncertainty.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Sequential PV policy-design framework. The RL agent selects annual policy actions, which are evaluated by a stochastic ABM to produce adoption and cost outcomes used to construct the adoption–cost trade-off frontier.
Figure 2: Training reward trajectories for PPO, SAC, and TD3 under wcost=0.5 . Lines show mean reward across five seeds and shaded regions show variability.
Figure 3: Adoption–cost trade-off across PPO, SAC, and TD3. Each point represents a learned policy under a specific cost-weight setting. Highlighted points indicate the representative policies used for baseline comparison.
Figure 4: Policy trajectories for the balanced RL policy (PPO, wcost=1.6 ). Shaded regions indicate variability across runs.
Problem definition: Solar electricity generation is a strategic component of energy portfolios designed to meet growing demand and reduce carbon emissions. Governments and municipalities encourage household photovoltaic (PV) adoption through upfront rebates and tax credits. Limited budgets require principled, data-driven policies that account for the drivers of adoption and the effects of incentives on adoption rates. Methodology/results: We develop a dynamic structural model of residential PV diffusion based on adoption decisions by forward-looking households that weigh the economic trade-offs between installing now and later. Adoption depends on return on investment and influence from neighboring adopters. The model segments households by home value and urbanization level, incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, and captures spatiotemporal installation dynamics. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods and detailed household-level data from Austin, Texas. In out-of-sample tests, it predicts installations more accurately than contemporary alternatives. We simulate counterfactual policies within the dynamic equilibrium of PV diffusion to evaluate rebate designs. The framework can also be adapted to study the adoption of other durable technologies. Managerial implications: A rebate offered for a limited period generates more adoption and emissions reductions than a prolonged, costlier program. This counterintuitive result arises from forward-looking behavior, neighbor influence, and accelerated adoption before the rebate expires. We also evaluate phased reductions and rebates differentiated by household segment. A two-step reduction outperforms multiple small reductions. Geographic differentiation improves policy performance, whereas differentiation by home value offers little advantage over a uniform rebate.
Sebastián Souyris, Jason A. Duan, Anantaram Balakrishnan +1
Lally School of Management, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute · McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin · LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin
Advancing autonomous green technologies in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is key to improving sustainability and efficiency in renewable energy production. This study presents a reinforcement learning (RL)-based framework to autonomously optimize the cleaning schedules of PV panels in arid regions, where soiling from dust and other airborne particles significantly reduces energy output. By employing advanced RL algorithms, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC), the framework dynamically adjusts cleaning intervals based on uncertain environmental conditions. The proposed approach was applied to a case study in Abu Dhabi, UAE, demonstrating that PPO outperformed SAC and traditional simulation optimization (Sim-Opt) methods, achieving up to 13% cost savings by dynamically responding to weather uncertainties. The results highlight the superiority of flexible, autonomous scheduling over fixed-interval methods, particularly in adapting to stochastic environmental dynamics. This aligns with the goals of autonomous green energy production by reducing operational costs and improving the efficiency of solar power generation systems. This work underscores the potential of RL-driven autonomous decision-making to optimize maintenance operations in renewable energy systems. In future research, it is important to enhance the generalization ability of the proposed RL model, while also considering additional factors and constraints to apply it to different regions.
Heungjo An
Department of Industrial Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology, Gumi City, South Korea
This paper compares rule-based and learning-based pricing mechanisms for peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading in residential photovoltaic communities. The rule-based benchmarks comprise bill-sharing as an ex post allocation mechanism, the mid-market rate, and supply-demand-ratio pricing. The reinforcement-learning (RL) formulation is implemented through a Deep Q-Network and evaluated under multiplier-based and learnable SDR-shaped pricing, with a fixed-parameter SDR variant as a non-learning control. Performance is assessed through community savings together with complementary financial and operational indicators. In the base PV-only configuration, the rule-based benchmarks outperform the best RL policy. With battery energy storage, evaluated for the RL policies only, community savings under the best RL policy increase from EUR 734.23 to EUR 978.52. Across the learning-based modes and in both configurations, SDR-shaped pricing outperforms the multiplier-based parameterization considered. The results indicate that rule-based pricing remains highly competitive wherever the two families are compared directly, and that storage substantially improves the learning-based outcomes under this accounting, while the distribution of benefits remains heterogeneous across households.
Pablo Benalcazar, Maciej Kalka, Wilian Guamán +1
Division of Energy Economics, Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland · GITEA, Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH), Riobamba, Ecuador