Learning to Price and Stock Under Contextual and Censored Demand

In online retailing, when a product sells out, a retailer often sees only the units sold, not how many customers would have bought it had inventory been available. However, the inventory level determines how much demand is revealed, and this information can influence subsequent decisions and future profits. We study an online selling problem in which, in each round, the seller observes a market context and then makes pricing and stocking decisions based on censored sales data from previous rounds. The challenge is to learn a context-dependent pricing and stocking policy without assuming a particular formula for demand or observing realized profit. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Mean-Calibrated Kernel UCB (MCK-UCB) algorithm that turns each incomplete sales record into a reliable guide for both inventory and price decisions, using data from past rounds with similar market conditions. This design allows us to learn while serving customers, without a separate exploration phase or the need to recover all demand hidden by stockouts. We prove the minimax optimality of the proposed algorithm, with strictly faster rates when expected profit varies more smoothly with price. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

We study online dynamic pricing with censored demand, where an arbitrary inventory level is revealed before pricing and may adapt to past observations, while demand follows an unknown, price-dependent distribution that is stationary over time. For a horizon of $T$ rounds, Xu et al. [2026] achieved $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret under restrictive structural assumptions including linear demand, price-independent additive noise, and conditions relating inventory levels to the noise support. Our first contribution is to extend this framework to a substantially more general and statistically harder nonparametric setting, requiring only the natural assumption that expected sales are nonincreasing in price and allowing nonlinear demand curves and price-dependent noise. For this model, we first propose a simple baseline, Double-Grid-UCB, which discretizes both price and inventory and achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{3/4})$ expected regret using separate revenue estimates for each price-inventory grid pair. Then, we develop Threshold-UCB, which improves the expected regret to $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$. Unlike Double-Grid-UCB, Threshold-UCB reuses sales observations across inventory levels through shared estimates of demand-tail probabilities, allowing the same data to support revenue upper bounds for multiple inventories rather than a single inventory bin. We also complement this upper bound with an $Ω(T^{2/3})$ lower bound via a reduction from stochastic posted pricing, establishing its minimax optimality. Finally, extensive experiments across inventory processes, demand functions, and noise models demonstrate consistently superior performance of Threshold-UCB over benchmark algorithms.

We study contextual dynamic pricing with linear valuations and bounded-support agnostic noise, whose induced demand curve may be non-Lipschitz with arbitrary jumps and atoms. Such discontinuities break the cross-context interpolation arguments used by smooth-demand pricing algorithms, while the best previous method achieved only $\tilde O(T^{3/4})$ regret. We propose Conservative-Markdown Redirect-UCB Pricing, a polynomial-time algorithm that combines randomized parameter estimation, conservative residual-grid probing, and confidence-based one-step redirection. Our algorithm achieves $\tilde O(T^{2/3})$ optimal regret, matching the known lower bounds of Kleinberg and Leighton (2003) up to logarithmic factors and improving over the previous upper bound of Xu and Wang (2022). Under stochastic well-conditioned contexts, this closes the long-existing open regret gap in linear-valuation contextual pricing under agnostic non-Lipschitz noise distribution.