Decision-Aware Suffix Prediction and Reasoning of Business Processes
Organizations: Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Computation, Information and Technology, Garching, Germany
Abstract
Suffix prediction forecasts the remaining sequence of events of a running case until completion. Most approaches rely on neural networks trained on event logs, which, on average, perform well but struggle with short prefixes or targets belonging to a rare process variant. In such scenarios, the correct path may cross multiple branching decisions, determined primarily by case- and event-level attributes, a signal that NN-based suffix prediction models tend to underweight because they may heavily weight (dense) event labels. Decision mining extracts rules for such decisions from the event log, but has so far been applied only to post-hoc and what-if analysis, not suffix prediction. We therefore extend suffix prediction with decision mining, introducing a decision-aware suffix prediction framework, a neuro-symbolic approach that enables reasoning about predicted events via mined decision rules. Experiments on three of four event logs and three suffix predictors show that the framework can improve suffix prediction, especially for short prefixes but also for rare process variants, and adds intrinsic interpretability.
Figures & tables
| Model | Variant | Helpdesk | Sepsis | BPIC20 DD | Procurement |
| FS-LSTM [ 1 ] | clean | 0.644 | 0.327 | 0.889 | 0.860 |
| decision train | 0.635 (-0.009) | 0.325 (-0.002) | 0.888 (-0.001) | 0.854 (-0.006) | |
| decision decoding | 0.866 ( +0.222 ) | 0.129 (-0.198) | 0.931 ( +0.042 ) | 0.885 ( +0.025 ) | |
| dec. train + dec. | 0.864 ( +0.220 ) | 0.130 (-0.197) | 0.931 ( +0.042 ) | 0.877 ( +0.017 ) | |
| GAN-LSTM [ 17 ] | clean | 0.868 | 0.330 | 0.925 | 0.896 |
| decision train | 0.868 ( +0.001 ) | 0.316 (-0.014) | 0.928 ( +0.003 ) | 0.899 ( +0.003 ) |
Predictive Process Monitoring
Predictive process monitoring uses partial event histories to forecast how processes will unfold and help people act before cases finish.
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