Vishing-Tactics-Bench: Forecasting Exploitation Trajectories in Voice Phishing Calls

Conversational scams, such as romance and investment scams, are emerging as a major form of online fraud. Unlike one-shot scam lures such as fake lottery or unpaid toll messages, they unfold through multi-turn conversations in which scammers gradually manipulate victims using evolving psychological techniques. However, existing research mainly focuses on static scam detection or synthetic scams, leaving open whether language models can understand how real-world scams progress over time. We introduce PreScam, a benchmark for modeling scam progression from early conversations. Built from user-submitted scam reports, PreScam filters and structures 177,989 raw reports into 11,573 conversational scam instances spanning 20 scam categories. Each instance is hierarchically structured according to the scam lifecycle defined by the proposed scam kill chain, and further annotated at the turn level with scammer psychological actions and victim responses. We benchmark models on two tasks: real-time termination prediction, which estimates whether a conversation is approaching the termination stage, and scammer action prediction, which forecasts the scammer's subsequent actions. Results show a clear gap between surface-level fluency and progression modeling: supervised encoders substantially outperform zero-shot LLMs on real-time termination prediction, while next-action prediction remains only moderately successful even for strong LLMs. Taken together, these results show that current models can capture some scam-related cues, yet still struggle to track how risk escalates and how manipulation unfolds across turns.

Modern phishing campaigns increasingly evade snapshot-based URL classifiers using interaction gates (e.g., checkbox/slider challenges), delayed content rendering, and logo-less credential harvesters. This shifts URL triage from static classification toward an interactive forensics task: an analyst must actively navigate the page while isolating themselves from potential runtime exploits. We present TraceScope, a decoupled triage pipeline that operationalizes this workflow at scale. To prevent the observer effect and ensure safety, a sandboxed operator agent drives a real GUI browser guided by visual motivation to elicit page behavior, freezing the session into an immutable evidence bundle. Separately, an adjudicator agent circumvents LLM context limitations by querying evidence on demand to verify a MITRE ATT&CK checklist, and generates an audit-ready report with extracted indicators of compromise (IOCs) and a final verdict. Evaluated on 708 reachable URLs from existing dataset (241 verified phishing from PhishTank and 467 benign from Tranco-derived crawling), TraceScope achieves 0.94 precision and 0.78 recall, substantially improving recall over three prior visual/reference-based classifiers while producing reproducible, analyst-grade evidence suitable for review. More importantly, we manually curated a dataset of real-world phishing emails to evaluate our system in a practical setting. Our evaluation reveals that TraceScope demonstrates superior performance in a real-world scenario as well, successfully detecting sophisticated phishing attempts that current state-of-the-art defenses fail to identify.

Telecom fraud scripts evolve rapidly and are often designed to resemble routine service conversations, creating two key requirements for audio-based telecom-fraud evaluation. First, benchmarks must incorporate newly observed scam patterns without overwriting previously established test sets. Second, they must distinguish fraud from lawful, near-domain calls rather than relying on topic-separated negative examples. We present TeleAntiFraud 2.0, constructed with our Mixed-Tree Anti-Fraud Generation Pipeline and evaluated under a monthly frozen evaluation protocol. The pipeline transforms online fraud-case abstracts into profile-grounded scenarios, expands them through mixed-tree generation, realizes fraud and non-fraud dialogue paths under shared contexts, renders validated dialogues as role-matched speech, and freezes the resulting audio, labels, prompts, manifests, and provenance records for each monthly evaluation set. Each frozen set contains 900 Chinese calls, comprising 600 fraud and 300 near-domain non-fraud cases. Controlled text experiments show that three classifiers achieve perfect macro-averaged F1 (Macro-F1) when evaluated against unrelated or ordinary negatives, but drop to 0.65-0.68 with near-domain sibling negatives. Full-set audio and automatic-speech-recognition plus large-language-model (ASR+LLM) evaluations further reveal class-prior shortcuts, prediction collapse, and snapshot sensitivity. Together, these findings establish near-domain construction and collapse-aware reporting as core requirements for evaluating audio-based telecom-fraud models under realistic confusable conditions. The accompanying research artifact includes the construction code, evaluation scripts, manifests, and documentation. Our dataset and code are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TeleAntiFraud-2_0-EEB2/.